#TrumpVisitsChina Air Force One has officially landed in China with President Trump, $TSLA CEO Elon Musk and $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang onboard.
Other CEOs reportedly joining the trip: • $AAPL CEO Tim Cook • $MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra • $QCOM CEO Cristiano Amon • $GS CEO David Solomon • $BLK CEO Larry Fink • $BX CEO Stephen Schwarzman • $BA CEO Kelly Ortberg • $GE CEO Larry Culp
The first-quarter 2026 earnings season has started in the U.S. So far, 80% of the companies that have reported results have surpassed revenue forecasts, outperforming the five-year average of 70% and the ten-year average of 67%. Furthermore, 84% have reported earnings per share above expectations, higher than the five-year average of 78% and the ten-year average of 76%. Major tech companies are fueling profit growth through new share repurchase initiatives. The S&P 500 remains at all-time highs.
On Monday, May 11, the U.S. government will start refunding $166 billion in tariffs considered unlawful, China will release its consumer inflation figures, and data on U.S. existing home sales will be published.
On Tuesday, May 12, inflation statistics will be reported by Germany, Switzerland, the Eurozone, and Brazil. In the U.S., important releases include the ADP Employment numbers and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Wednesday, May 13, will feature the Eurozone’s GDP report, oil market updates from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, as well as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
#GOLD Gold prices dropped further on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and attention on the Trump and Chinese President summit also influenced the market.
🔹The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is expected to impact the two-day BRICS foreign ministers meeting starting Thursday in New Delhi, challenging the bloc’s ability to issue a unified statement.
BRICS, initially formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has since expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
🔻Morgan Stanley has increased its yearly target for the S&P 500 index to 8,000 (up from 7,800), citing continued strong earnings from U.S. companies. This new target suggests an 8% upside from Tuesday's close at 7,400 points.
#TrumpVisitsChina He was welcomed by Chinese officials, military honor guards, and students waving both U.S. and Chinese flags as he stepped off Air Force One on Wednesday evening. He paused on the red carpet to smile and gesture as students chanted "welcome" in Mandarin before leaving in his limousine. Alongside Trump, CEOs from companies such as Nvidia are present to address business challenges, including regulatory issues related to H200 AI chips in China.
Oil markets face rising risks as Iran standoff continues
UBS reports that global oil inventories are approaching 10-year lows, with stockpiles dropping from 8.2 billion barrels in February to about 7.8 billion in April, and possibly reaching 7.6 billion by the end of May.
UBS warns that short-term relief from weaker demand, strategic reserve releases, and sanctions waivers is quickly disappearing, leaving global supply buffers nearly depleted. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the bank warns of potential panic buying and extreme oil price volatility.
UBS adds that tighter oil markets could increase pressure on the Trump administration to negotiate with Iran and reopen the crucial shipping route.
Trump and Chinese President Summit Unlikely to Impact Iran Standoff
Citi Research says President Trump’s talks with Chinese President are not expected to resolve the U.S.-Iran impasse.
Citi projects ongoing, sporadic shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 4–8 weeks, cautioning that Iran could escalate tensions for leverage and revenue.
The bank remains bullish on oil prices, citing persistent supply pressures as a major influence on negotiations.
IMF head Kristalina Georgieva warned that if oil prices remain at $120–$130 per barrel until 2027, the global economy could enter a technical recession. She stated this would slow global growth to about 2%, which is close to recession levels. Ongoing high energy prices would also put serious pressure on global demand and economic stability.