Ronald_S_Costa

#hormuztrafficrises 🚢 Homuz Traffic Rises— Who's Counting, and Whose Numbers Count? The Strait of Hormuz is the most contested 21 miles of water on earth right now. And the traffic numbers coming out of it look like two different realities. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that shipping through Hormuz had "nearly normalized" — 67 ships Saturday, 55 Friday, with oil volumes "about equal to pre-war." CENTCOM confirmed the same line: 55 merchant ships transiting, 17 million barrels of oil. But the trackers disagree — sharply. 1. Windward (maritime intelligence) recorded just 32 vessels on Saturday — less than half the US figure — with only 11 tankers. 2. Kpler counted only 5 vessels on Sunday, a collapse from 26 on Thursday, after Iran announced it had again closed the strait over US/Israeli violations in Lebanon. 3. Pre-war baseline: ~ 125 ships/day , including dozens of tankers. The gap isn't just a tracking error. Iranian tankers historically sail with AIS transponders off — so any count depends on who you trust and what signals you're willing to believe. When US officials cite high numbers, they may be including vessels Iran sent through after announcing a closure, or counting ships that navigated contested minefields that still litter both shipping lanes. Reality check: The June 22 Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap and a maritime communications line — but Iran's delegation refused to return to the table after Trump's "you won't have a country" threat on Truth Social. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan are now shuttling messages between separate rooms. The market isn't buying the normalization narrative. Brent jumped to $81.11 (+0.67%) and WTI surged 2.64% to $78.62 on Monday, as traders priced the risk that Iran's on-again-off-again closure pattern is now the new normal , not a bug to be fixed. Sourcex.com Not financial advice. The 60-day roadmap has more exit ramps than a Los Angeles freeway — trade oil exposure with position sizing that survives headline whiplash.