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U.S. Unemployment Rate came at 4.6% Expected was 4.5%
It looks like a small difference, but the signal is big.
This shows the job market is getting weaker. In the short term, this is negative for the market because a weak job market means slower economic growth.
At the same time, weaker jobs increase the chances of future interest rate cuts. So yes — it’s mixed.
Now the real focus is on CPI (Inflation data) this Thursday.
• If CPI comes lower than expected → Market can bounce, risk assets may pump • If CPI comes higher than expected → Market can dump hard
Why? Because the Fed will be stuck: They can’t control high inflation and support a weakening job market at the same time.
High inflation + rising unemployment = worst combination
If CPI is hot, expect high volatility and possible sharp downside.
BoJ is likely to raise rates by 25bps on Dec 19. Historically, BTC fell sharply after Bank of Japan hikes: • Mar 2024: -27% • Jul 2024: -30% • Jan 2025: -31%
But the story is never just about Japan. Each crash had bigger triggers: – Jan: Trump’s policies + tariff fears – Jul: Unexpected carry trade unwind – Mar–Apr: BTC at ATH + geopolitical tensions
The real fear in markets isn’t tighter money, it’s uncertainty. Much of the BoJ panic could already be reflected in prices.