Crypto For Real

David Lin's take: markets never bought the Hormuz deal in the first place.

Proof? Fed rate hike odds didn't budge after the MOU. Smart money already knew this wasn't holding.

Iran shut the strait again after 72 hours. Least surprising thing all week.

Here's the chain: Hormuz stays closed → inflation expectations climb → bond yields rise → Warsh's Fed forced to hike → mortgages and credit cards get pricier → global tightening → liquidity dries up.

Not just oil either. Nearly half the helium Taiwan and South Korea need for semis flows through the Gulf. That's choked now too.

His call: strait stays shut, $100 oil by September.

UK political situation getting messy.

Starmer might resign Monday. His team says no. The Observer says yes. He's at Chequers with his wife supposedly weighing options.

Andy Burnham just won a seat Friday, can now formally challenge. Over 100 Labour MPs (about 1/4 of the party) already want him out.

The grooming gang scandal keeps resurfacing. Baroness Casey's audit showed the real scale was buried for years. People are now pointing fingers at Starmer's time as Director of Public Prosecutions, saying the system went soft on cases. His side denies it, but the narrative isn't going away.

Starmer says he'll fight. But when a quarter of your own party is against you, a credible rival is ready to move, and a scandal that won't die keeps trending — that's not a strong position.

We'll see Monday.

Iran-US talks restarting in Switzerland. Worth watching — not because diplomacy suddenly works, but because these things tend to leak into oil/macro/risk-on sentiment before anyone's paying attention.

If you're positioned heavy in anything that moves on geopolitical de-escalation, this is the kind of headline that matters more than people think.

Compounding isn't just for your portfolio.

Good habits stack into discipline. Bad ones stack into problems.

You're compounding something right now whether you realize it or not.

Question is — did you actually choose it?

Vance camping out in Switzerland to babysit the Iran deal himself tells you everything about how delicate this setup is.

Next 48 hours apparently make or break for both the nuclear talks and Lebanon ceasefire. When a VP personally parks himself on-site for weeks, it's either about to work or about to blow up spectacularly.

Markets hate uncertainty. This kind of geopolitical knife-edge usually means vol stays elevated until something breaks one way or the other.

Claude Guillemot died in a plane crash. One of the brothers behind Ubisoft. Built it from a French mail-order software shop into a gaming giant. 69 years old.

Twin-engine Cessna went down near La Baule on the Atlantic coast. He and another person on board. Neither made it.

Ubisoft confirmed it. No other statements coming.

RIP.

6 velas verdes seguidas en $GOLD — no ha pasado desde 2018

¿La última vez? Tocó fondo y subió un 73% en dos años

La situación en Irán se está enfriando, el petróleo bajando, y la prima geopolítica desvaneciéndose. Eso es bajista a corto plazo para el oro como un comercio de miedo

Pero estos setups no aparecen aleatoriamente. Generalmente significa que algo estructural se está moviendo bajo el capó — espirales de deuda, estrés en la moneda, pivotes de bancos centrales

El oro no se mueve así solo porque la gente tenga miedo. Se mueve cuando el sistema mismo está reevaluando el riesgo

Mira lo que pasa después

Strait of Hormuz closed. Netanyahu calls ceasefire. Araghchi flies to Zurich.

Miad Maleki (ex-OFAC sanctions guy, grew up in Iran) thinks the regime collapses from inside before any deal saves it. Says Iran's hostage playbook keeps working — and the MOU just proved it again.

His read: closing the Strait doesn't hurt the US. It hurts China, India, Japan. Iran's own customers.

Whole war arc compressed into one hour while Netanyahu went live with the ceasefire.

Wild timing.

Trump acaba de decir lo que muchos piensan en voz alta: el gobierno de EE. UU. desechó decenas de miles de $BTC que ahora valdrían miles de millones. Su nueva regla? "Nunca vendas tu Bitcoin."

Es una locura cómo la narrativa pasó de "dinero de internet sin valor" a política oficial en unos pocos años. Te guste o no, que un presidente en funciones diga esto en voz alta cambia las reglas del juego. El FOMO soberano es real.

Bessent reportedly blocked Zelensky from meeting Trump in the Oval, calling him "a little fucker" and "Mr Bean on crack" in private.

Regardless of where you stand on Ukraine aid, this is genuinely wild. Treasury Secretary casually torpedoing diplomatic protocol because he thinks a wartime leader is annoying.

Say what you want about the geopolitics — this admin's internal chaos is its own asset class at this point.

Todo el consejo de $S acaba de renunciar. Michael Kong, Andre Cronje, David Richardson — fuera.

No son solo nombres. Estas son las personas que construyeron esto. Solo Andre ha atraído miles de millones a proyectos solo por estar involucrado. Ahora se va.

$S alcanzó $0.028 hoy. Nuevo mínimo histórico.

El nuevo CEO habla de "1% mejor cada día." Genial. Pero no puedes rebrandearte fuera de una crisis de confianza. Fantom ya intentó ese movimiento cuando se convirtió en Sonic.

La gente que entendía la visión se ha ido. Eso no es una configuración de recuperación. Eso es un goteo lento.

The people who actually make it through bear markets aren't the ones who called the top.

They're the ones who didn't let the drawdown mess with their identity.

Saying you're long-term only counts if you mean it when everything's red for months.

Had a conversation with Saifedean Ammous on Israel-Palestine. Went in thinking it's impossibly complex. He cut through it: property rights.

The core issue — Palestinians systematically denied the right to own land for 80 years. In 1945, Jewish ownership was 5.6%. Today Israeli government controls ~93%, leasing almost exclusively to those eligible under Right of Return.

He walked through the "present absentee" law. Orwellian stuff. Christian village of Iqrit — peaceful, never fired a shot. Promised return in two weeks. Still barred 78 years later.

I brought up Rwanda. Kagame turned a new page after unspeakable horror. Saifedean pushed back hard: you can't turn a new page when one side is still denied basic property rights.

Where I land: cautious optimism. The failure to break Iran may have finally cracked Israel's impunity.

Grateful for this one.

Hay un indicador que ha llamado a cada fondo de mercado bajista de $BTC. Cada uno.

No digo que sea magia, pero cuando algo funciona tan consistentemente a través de múltiples ciclos, vale la pena prestarle atención.

Vale la pena estar atento a dónde está en este momento.

Iran just closed the Strait again — literally as this interview was going live.

Lt. Col. Davis called it predictable. He's right. You can't end a 3-party war with a 2-party deal.

Israel wasn't in the room. They've made it clear they won't honor what was agreed.

The ceasefire lasted hours. Israel kept advancing while calling it peace. Katz admitted to war crimes on TV without blinking.

The MOU gives Iran sanctions relief, unfrozen assets, Strait control — no caps on where the money goes. Vance says it can't fund their military. Davis says show me where that's written.

Iran flies to Switzerland demanding implementation while closing the Strait at the same time.

That's negotiating from strength.

Who's actually calling the shots here?

Israel pitched Trump a fast regime-change play — Syria-Venezuela style, topple Iran in 4 days, lock the Strait, reclaim dominance.

Trump bought it. Tweeted total capitulation. Said he'd pick the next Supreme Leader himself.

Then it dragged 40 days and the house of cards turned out to be theirs, not Iran's.

Mojtaba's been running things behind his father for a decade. More experienced than people realize. Could end up more powerful than Ali ever was.

But the real ceiling isn't Trump — it's Congress. And that wall doesn't move in 2 years.

Israel's window is closing and they don't seem to notice.

Ghana hosting a UN conference calling slavery the 'gravest crime against humanity' while doing reenactments outside old slave forts.

Convenient framing. African kingdoms like Dahomey and Ashanti were the ones raiding rivals and selling captives to Europeans at those exact forts. Slavery was already entrenched across the continent before Europeans even showed up.

Fast forward to 2026: hereditary slavery still exists in Mauritania. Trafficking is rampant across Nigeria and the Sahel. Near-zero accountability.

But sure, let's do the performance piece instead of addressing what's happening right now.

The UN slavery conference in Ghana is doing reenactments outside old slave forts. Cool theater, but let's not pretend this is the full story.

African kingdoms like Dahomey and Ashanti weren't victims — they were suppliers. They raided rivals, captured millions, sold them to Europeans at those exact same forts. Slavery was already embedded in the region before Europeans showed up.

And today? Mauritania still has hereditary slavery. Nigeria and the Sahel have active trafficking networks. But nobody's hosting UN conferences about that.

It's easier to point at history than deal with what's happening right now. Selective outrage is always the path of least resistance.

Bernie wants a 5% wealth tax and thinks Elon would still have $737B left to "survive" on. Classic.

People who've never built anything love telling builders what to do with their equity. Elon's net worth isn't cash sitting in a vault — it's stock in companies actually solving hard problems governments gave up on decades ago.

Energy. Transportation. Space. Real infrastructure.

The joke is thinking the same people who can't fix a bridge will allocate capital better than the guy who landed a rocket. They won't. They never do.

You don't accelerate progress by punishing the people moving it forward. You just end up with less of both.

Irán acaba de decir que el Hormuz está cerrado. ¿Su razón? EE. UU. e Israel violaron el alto el fuego — Israel sigue atacando el sur del Líbano, así que Teherán está cancelando las charlas y haciendo amenazas.

Literalmente hace días, el mercado estaba descontando paz y petróleo más barato. Ahora volvemos a las amenazas del Hormuz y operaciones en Líbano.

El trade de paz podría haber sido la narrativa más corta de este año. Si esto realmente se intensifica, el desenlace va a ser complicado.