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2026 ha comenzado con una narrativa de mercado familiar: “Compra a medida que regresa el FOMO.”
A medida que la capitalización total del mercado de criptomonedas se recupera con $50 mil millones adicionales, Solana (SOL) está nuevamente en el centro de atención.
Los grandes holders — comúnmente referidos como ballenas — están acumulando SOL activamente. Pero la pregunta clave sigue siendo:
¿Es esta una convicción genuina a largo plazo, o solo otro juego de liquidez a corto plazo?
🔹 Señales de Ballena: La Acumulación Es Indiscutible
Según Santiment, las billeteras que contienen 10+ SOL han aumentado significativamente sus posiciones, llevando a Solana a la lista de criptomonedas más tendencias por actividad en la cadena.

DOGE Recupera Impulso En Medio de Señales de Mercado Confusas
Dogecoin (DOGE) ha vuelto a estar en el centro de atención después de registrar una ganancia diaria de más del 12%, superando una línea de tendencia descendente de larga data. Este movimiento se produce después de varias semanas de consolidación estrecha y volatilidad en declive, una condición del mercado que a menudo precede a movimientos direccionales agudos.
Desde una perspectiva técnica, DOGE ha superado varios niveles de resistencia a corto plazo, mientras que los indicadores de momentum han mostrado una mejora notable. Sin embargo, esta aceleración de precios ha ocurrido junto con un aumento significativo en la oferta de DOGE en intercambios centralizados, añadiendo complejidad a la perspectiva alcista.

Early 2026: A Convincing Bounce, But Questions Remain
Bitcoin entered 2026 with relatively strong bullish momentum. Capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain stable, while on-chain data suggests that large holders — often referred to as whales — are still active in the market. Together, these factors have created what many analysts describe as a phase of “coordinated accumulation”, a condition that historically tends to appear near market bottoms.
From a theoretical perspective, this environment often precedes medium- to long-term recoveries. However, the key question remains: does real data truly confirm this optimistic narrative?
Technical Breakout Strengthens the Bullish Case
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin (BTC) began the year with a 2.8% gain, decisively breaking above the $90,000 level after more than six weeks of sideways consolidation. This breakout has strengthened the argument that the market may have completed its bottoming process.
If this scenario holds, the move above $90,000 could represent only the first leg of a broader upward cycle. Early long-position traders are already benefiting. According to Lookonchain data, one trader opened an all-in 20x leveraged long position around $87,000, currently showing an unrealized profit of approximately 55%.
Short Liquidations Fuel Momentum
On the derivatives side, the market has experienced a sharp wave of liquidations. On January 2, roughly $326 million in short positions were wiped out — the highest daily total in nearly a month — coinciding precisely with Bitcoin’s breakout above $90,000.
This suggests that liquidation pressure and capital flow are gradually tilting in favor of bulls, at least in the short term. However, such moves often raise another critical concern:
👉 Is this smart positioning… or excessive optimism building too fast?
The Bitcoin Dilemma: Sentiment vs. On-Chain Reality
Monitoring on-chain metrics has become more important than ever. The Fear & Greed Index has jumped by 7 points, moving closer to the neutral zone after lingering in “fear.” At the same time, Bitcoin funding rates have turned positive, a shift that rarely occurs without broader market implications.
Rising funding rates indicate that traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium to maintain long exposure — a sign of growing bullish confidence.
However, sentiment alone is not enough.
After excluding exchange-related wallets, Bitcoin balances held by whale addresses are actually declining. A similar trend is observed among wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC, a group that includes institutional participants and ETF-related entities. This suggests that large holders may be reducing exposure rather than aggressively accumulating.
ETF Flows: Supportive, But Not Yet a Strong Backbone
Despite ongoing ETF participation, it may be premature to view ETFs as a reliable long-term demand anchor. Due to previous drawdowns, total Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) have fallen to approximately $67.6 billion, near the lowest level seen since June 2025.
This weak AUM recovery highlights a growing disconnect between market positioning and on-chain fundamentals. While traders interpret current conditions as coordinated accumulation, ETF capital flows have yet to confirm sustained conviction.
Conclusion: A Fragile Balance
Bitcoin now stands at a critical crossroads.
Bullish signals: technical breakout, short liquidations, improving sentiment
Bearish risks: declining whale balances, fragile ETF inflows, rising leverage
Whether the current rally evolves into a sustainable uptrend or fades into a classic bull trap will depend on how capital flows behave in the coming weeks.
For now, optimism is justified — but caution remains essential.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
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XRP está una vez más poniendo a prueba la paciencia de los traders. Mientras algunos creen que el mercado se está acumulando en silencio antes de un breakout, otros argumentan que esto es solo otra pausa antes de un descenso más profundo. Con el precio comprimido alrededor de promedios móviles clave, XRP se está acercando a un momento decisivo que podría definir su próximo movimiento importante.
Análisis Técnico de XRP
En los últimos días, XRP ha estado negociándose de cerca a lo largo de la EMA de 20 días cerca de $1.90, lo que indica una volatilidad reducida y un equilibrio temporal entre compradores y vendedores. Históricamente, tal comportamiento de precios ajustados alrededor de un promedio móvil a corto plazo a menudo precede un movimiento direccional fuerte.

Se espera que el primer fin de semana de 2026 extienda el impulso positivo visto en el mercado de altcoins durante la semana pasada. Varios tokens que han tenido un rendimiento sólido recientemente continúan beneficiándose de una mezcla de fortaleza técnica, sentimiento social y catalizadores externos. Mientras el interés de los inversores se mantenga intacto, estos activos podrían mantener su trayectoria ascendente a corto plazo.
Coinphoton ha identificado tres altcoins que pueden seguir siendo el foco durante los últimos días de negociación de este fin de semana: Pepe (PEPE), Canton (CC) y Chiliz (CHZ).

El precio de XRP ha subido más del 8% en las últimas 24 horas, marcando un fuerte comienzo para el nuevo año y superando gran parte del mercado de criptomonedas en general. Este repunte ocurre a medida que mejora el sentimiento global sobre las criptomonedas, apoyado por un renovado interés institucional, posicionamiento alcista en los derivados y señales técnicas en fortalecimiento.
En el momento de escribir, XRP se cotiza alrededor de $2.03, manteniendo el impulso por encima de niveles psicológicos y técnicos clave.
A continuación se presentan los tres principales impulsores detrás del fuerte aumento del precio de XRP hoy.

Dogecoin (DOGE) ha estado bajo presión renovada en las últimas semanas, reflejando una debilidad más amplia en el mercado de criptomonedas y una notable disminución en la demanda especulativa. A medida que los precios retrocedieron, las métricas de rentabilidad en cadena se deterioraron drásticamente, empujando a DOGE a una de sus fases de sentimiento más débiles desde finales de 2023.
Sin embargo, bajo la superficie, una combinación de señales técnicas y en cadena sugiere que la presión de venta puede estar disminuyendo gradualmente. Aunque Dogecoin sigue siendo vulnerable a una mayor caída, los primeros signos de estabilización están comenzando a surgir, planteando preguntas sobre si la moneda meme podría estar acercándose a una posible fase de recuperación.

PEPE, la moneda meme inspirada en Pepe la Rana, ha comenzado 2026 con un fuerte impulso. En solo el segundo día del nuevo año, PEPE saltó más del 20%, atrayendo la atención renovada de los comerciantes y reavivando la especulación en torno a un posible rally de monedas meme a principios de año.
El repentino aumento de precio ocurre en medio de una mezcla de factores de estructura de mercado, un renovado interés especulativo y una predicción de alto perfil que se ha difundido rápidamente a través de las redes sociales de criptomonedas.
¿Qué está impulsando el rally de PEPE y puede esto desencadenar un ciclo temprano de monedas meme?

At the start of 2025, the crypto industry was flooded with bold predictions. Bitcoin at $200,000, Ethereum at $7,000, Solana at $750, a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, and stablecoins entering the financial mainstream all dominated headlines.
Twelve months later, the year-end scorecard tells a very different story. Most price targets missed badly, while structural predictions around regulation, ETFs, stablecoins, and infrastructure quietly became reality.
So who got it right, who got it wrong, and what does the gap between hype and reality reveal about how this market truly works?
Bitcoin $200,000, Ethereum $7,000, Solana $750: The Overheated Price Calls
In December 2024, Bitwise released one of the most widely cited outlooks for 2025, projecting Bitcoin at $200,000, Ethereum at $7,000, and Solana at $750, largely driven by spot ETF inflows and institutional adoption.
The thesis was not unreasonable. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 attracted tens of billions of dollars, while a more crypto-friendly political environment under President Donald Trump fueled expectations of regulatory easing.
Reality, however, followed a different path. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in mid-October, before falling sharply amid tariff-related headlines and broader macro pressure, ending the year around the $80,000 region. Ethereum briefly approached $5,000 in August but closed the year near $3,000, while Solana traded just above $100 by year-end.
Bitwise clearly missed the price targets, but its broader assumptions about regulatory momentum and institutional participation proved largely correct. In price terms, the forecast was enthusiastic but wrong.
Cycle Peak in Q1 and $180,000 Bitcoin: VanEck’s Timing Miss
VanEck predicted the market cycle would peak in the first quarter, with Bitcoin reaching $180,000, followed by a secondary high later in the year. Alongside this, it projected explosive on-chain growth: $50 billion in tokenized securities, $200 billion in DeFi TVL, and $30 billion in NFT volume.
The timing was off across the board. Bitcoin’s actual peak arrived in October near $126,000, with no recovery after the subsequent macro shock. Tokenized assets peaked around $19.2 billion, DeFi TVL reached approximately $170 billion, and NFT volumes remained far below expectations at roughly $5.6 billion.
VanEck correctly identified the direction of growth, but overestimated the speed and scale, effectively compressing multiple years of expansion into a single cycle.
Bitcoin $300,000 and a $10 Trillion Market: A Sentiment Snapshot
HashKey Group’s “10 Market Predictions for 2025” reflected extreme market optimism. Nearly 50,000 participants voted for scenarios including Bitcoin above $300,000, Ethereum over $8,000, total crypto market capitalization reaching $10 trillion, and USD-pegged stablecoins exceeding $300 billion.
Only one of these materialized. Stablecoin supply crossed approximately $308 billion by year-end. Bitcoin topped out near $126,000, Ethereum around $4,950, and total market capitalization remained far below the $10 trillion mark.
These predictions served more as a snapshot of collective psychology than as actionable forecasts.
Galaxy Digital: Wrong Prices, Right Business Model Shift
Galaxy Digital offered one of the most detailed outlooks: Bitcoin at $185,000, Ethereum above $5,500, Dogecoin over $1, and significant growth across DeFi and NFTs. Importantly, Galaxy also predicted that publicly listed Bitcoin miners would pivot toward AI and high-performance computing (HPC).
While none of the major price targets were reached, Galaxy’s industry-level forecast proved remarkably accurate. Throughout 2025, major mining firms invested heavily in AI infrastructure, signed compute contracts, and repurposed facilities for GPU-intensive workloads.
This highlighted a key distinction: price forecasts failed, but structural business insights succeeded.
Standard Chartered and the $200,000 Bitcoin Narrative
In October, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered reiterated the bank’s view that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by year-end, citing ETF inflows and a supportive political backdrop.
Bitcoin did set a new all-time high above $126,000 earlier that month, but subsequent macro shocks dragged prices down more than 30% from the peak. The $200,000 target remained out of reach.
The forecast correctly anticipated a new high, but the magnitude proved unrealistic.
The Perma-Bulls: Right Direction, Wrong Magnitude
Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee remained among the most bullish voices, repeatedly citing Bitcoin targets between $200,000 and $250,000, with Ethereum potentially reaching $10,000, driven by liquidity expansion and sovereign debt risks.
As with others, the cycle ended at roughly half those levels before a sharp October deleveraging reset market leverage. Their macro thesis held, but the market’s ability to sustain parabolic moves did not.
This is the cost of perpetual bullishness: often right on direction, consistently wrong on scale.
The Structural Winners: U.S. Bitcoin Reserve, Regulation, and ETFs
Gemini’s January article “Five Crypto Predictions for 2025” included one of the most accurate calls of the year: the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order instructing the Treasury to develop a Bitcoin reserve, initially funded by seized BTC and potentially expanded pending Congressional approval.
Gemini also correctly forecast comprehensive digital asset legislation. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, established licensing and reserve requirements for USD-pegged stablecoins while banning algorithmic models.
On ETFs, Gemini predicted expansion beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Spot Solana ETFs launched in October, attracting over $400 million in the first week, followed by the approval of spot XRP ETFs in November.
Three non-price predictions, three clear hits.
Stablecoins, DeFi, and Consumer Crypto Go Mainstream
Coinbase avoided price targets altogether, focusing instead on regulatory clarity, stablecoin adoption, and DeFi’s return. Delphi Digital similarly framed 2025 as a turning point for user-facing DeFi applications, on-chain cards, and tokenized equities.
These forecasts largely played out. Stablecoins were integrated by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Shopify for payments and subscriptions. DeFi TVL returned to around $170 billion, the highest since late 2021. Tokenized equities and on-chain cards appeared in mainstream apps such as Robinhood.
No Bitcoin $200,000 chart went viral, but nearly every structural prediction became reality.
Conclusion
The final score is clear. Price predictions mostly failed, while structural forecasts succeeded.
Those who focused on how the market would evolve — regulation, ETFs, stablecoins, infrastructure, and user experience — delivered the most insight. Gemini stood out in non-price forecasts, while Coinbase and Delphi accurately mapped the industry’s trajectory.
The lesson heading into 2026 is simple: ignore sensational price targets and watch market structure instead. The real alpha lies not in shouting “Bitcoin $200,000,” but in understanding regulation, infrastructure, and adoption trends.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and represents a personal blog-style analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any investment outcomes.
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#BTC #CryptoNewss #MarketAnalysis

Cardano (ADA) ha comenzado el nuevo año con una nota más constructiva, manteniendo una recuperación constante y negociándose alrededor de $0.36 en el momento de escribir el viernes. Una combinación de métricas en cadena, datos del mercado de derivados y indicadores técnicos sugiere condiciones de demanda en mejora, apuntando a un regreso gradual del interés de los inversores después de una fase de consolidación prolongada.
Mientras que el sentimiento del mercado más amplio sigue siendo cauteloso, los datos apoyan cada vez más una posible continuación alcista, con la atención ahora centrada en un posible despegue de un patrón de cuña descendente de larga duración.

El investigador de Blockchain ZachXBT ha emitido una advertencia pública sobre un exploit activo de drenaje de wallets que ya ha impactado a cientos de wallets de criptomonedas, resultando en pérdidas estimadas que superan los $107,000, con el total aún en aumento.
Según la investigación, el ataque tiene como objetivo wallets a través de múltiples blockchains compatibles con EVM, con cada víctima individual generalmente perdiendo menos de $2,000. Esta fragmentación deliberada parece ser una estrategia calculada diseñada para evitar activar alertas de seguridad automatizadas, mientras todavía permite al atacante acumular una cantidad total sustancial.