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Bitcoin has lagged record-high equities as U.S. tech stocks rally on AI, but asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab say the divergence is likely temporary, according to CoinDesk. Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage said capital has rotated toward AI and other narratives even as crypto fundamentals strengthen, citing stablecoin transaction volume in the first half exceeding all of 2025 and tokenized real-world assets up more than 60% year to date. Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli said bitcoin’s slow rebound fits past post-halving cycles, with miner production costs near $95,000 and average investor cost basis around $80,000.

Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks, reversing late-June losses as crypto markets rebounded. According to NS3.AI, XRP rose 5.3% to $1.18 and overtook USDC to become the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market value.
The report noted that thin holiday trading may be amplifying price moves across the market.

On Jul 04, 2026, 17:31 PM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has crossed the 63,000 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 63,016 USDT, with a narrowed 1.34% increase in 24 hours.

David Bailey said BIP-110 failed after gaining less than 1% hashrate support.
According to NS3.AI, Bailey said the outcome strengthened Bitcoin’s network consensus and demonstrated resilience in its governance process.
Bailey did not provide additional details on the proposal or the voting process beyond the reported level of hashrate support.

Strategy CEO Phong Le said in a post on X that Bitcoin is essentially an expression of “freedom,” comparing it to “the United States in the field of money.” According to Odaily, Le reflected on his experiences in Vietnam, saying the country has changed significantly in economic development and social vitality, while the United States remains a destination many people aspire to for opportunity, upward mobility, and institutional freedom.
Le said the United States’ long-term success stems from its constitutional system, capitalist mechanisms, and culture of innovation, which he said enable ordinary people to move up through education, entrepreneurship, and risk-taking. He added that his family’s experience immigrating to the United States as Vietnamese refugees reflects that system.
Building on that view, Le described Bitcoin as a “digital form of the United States,” arguing that its transparent rules, code-based execution, proof-of-work, and fixed supply create a “non-sovereign monetary order” similar to a constitutional framework.
Le said Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a “mechanism of hope,” offering an alternative for savers in inflationary environments, residents in regions with unstable institutions, and those seeking asset sovereignty. He added that Bitcoin and U.S. institutions share core principles including individual sovereignty, property rights, open competition, and long-term thinking.
Le concluded that the United States provides freedom at the national level, while Bitcoin provides monetary freedom at the network level.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. published a specific and consequential assessment on July 4: Bitcoin has entered the later stages of a bear market, and US spot ETFs are showing signs of easing selling pressure for the first time. Thursday's $223 million net inflow — the first daily total above $200 million since early May and the largest in over six weeks — is the specific data point that marks the first ETF signal consistent with the later-stage bear market transition Adler describes.
Bitcoin in the Later Stages — Not the End, but a Different Phase
Adler's characterization of Bitcoin as being in the later stages of a bear market is analytically distinct from declaring the bear market over. Later-stage bear markets are defined by exhaustion rather than panic — sellers gradually running out of willing sellers, patient capital absorbing available supply, and the macro environment beginning to shift from headwind to tailwind. All three conditions have been developing simultaneously in June and into July.
The on-chain evidence supporting Adler's later-stage assessment is dense. The realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to −0.35 — a 43-month low not seen since December 2022 following FTX's collapse, and a level that has marked cycle bottoms with extreme precision in 2015, 2019, and 2022 according to CryptoQuant's own analysis. Loss-making Bitcoin supply has overtaken profitable supply for the first time this cycle. The UTXO profit/loss ratio has entered the historical bottoming range. Cycle momentum sits at −30. The Sharpe ratio matched the −20 level seen at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows. Long-term holders control a record 79% of circulating supply. And whales absorbed 270,000 BTC — $16.7 billion — over two weeks while ETFs were bleeding a record $4.06 billion in June.
Each of these signals individually is consistent with a market in a later bear market phase. Together they represent the densest cluster of simultaneous historical bottom indicators Bitcoin has produced in the current cycle.
The First ETF Easing Signal — $223 Million Led by FBTC and ARKB
The ETF flow reversal is the new element in Adler's July 4 analysis. Thursday's $223 million in net inflows — led by Fidelity's FBTC at $166 million and ARK's ARKB at $91.8 million — ended a 10-day outflow streak that had totaled more than $2.7 billion and represented the worst stretch of institutional redemptions since the products launched in January 2024.
Adler characterizes this as the first sign of easing selling pressure rather than a confirmed reversal — a distinction that reflects the same caution embedded in every other analytical framework applied throughout the correction. One strong inflow day ends an outflow streak. It does not reverse six consecutive weeks of net redemptions totaling $4.06 billion in June alone. BlackRock's IBIT — the largest Bitcoin ETF and the product most closely associated with broad-based institutional re-engagement — continued its outflow streak on Thursday with $40.4 million in redemptions even as Fidelity and ARK posted their strongest single-day inflows in weeks.
The catalyst behind Thursday's inflow is identifiable and specific: June nonfarm payrolls at 57,000 — half the 110,000 forecast — pushed Fed rate-hike probability from 65% to 50% for September and gave institutional allocators who had been reducing Bitcoin ETF exposure throughout June a data-driven reason to begin reversing that positioning. The inflow is therefore a response to a specific macro catalyst rather than an unprompted return of institutional risk appetite — which is precisely why Adler frames it as a first sign of easing rather than a confirmed structural shift.
What Comes Next — the Remaining Conditions for Confirmation
The later-stage bear market framework and the first ETF easing signal define where Bitcoin is. The conditions that would confirm the transition from later-stage bear market to early-stage recovery are equally specific. The 200-week SMA at $62,660 must be reclaimed on a sustained weekly closing basis — Bitcoin ended the week at $61,600, just below that level. BlackRock's IBIT outflow streak must end and turn to positive inflows, confirming that institutional re-engagement is broad-based rather than concentrated in Fidelity and ARK's buyer profiles. And June CPI — the next major scheduled macro catalyst — must come in softer than May's 4.2% to validate the payrolls-driven rate repricing as the beginning of a sustained disinflationary shift rather than a single-week data anomaly.
Until those three conditions are met, Adler's later-stage bear market framing remains the most accurate single characterization of Bitcoin's current position: past the worst of it structurally, not yet confirmed as having exited it.

Riot Platforms transferred 500 BTC to NYDIG Custody, with the transfer valued at about $30.7 million, according to PANews.
According to NS3.AI, available records indicate the transaction appears to be a custody-related movement and do not show an executed sale.
The report also noted that Riot has previously disclosed Bitcoin sales, restricted collateral, negative operating cash flow, and plans to expand its data-center operations.

Farside Investors' BIP-110 alerts recorded a new signaling block on July 3, bringing the current period to seven signals.
According to NS3.AI, BGeometrics data showed miner support at 0.42% from May 1 through July 2, which remains well below the 55% threshold required for lock-in.
The figures indicate that BIP-110 has not attracted sufficient miner signaling to approach activation under the stated lock-in requirement.

Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin’s active holders face a cost-basis resistance level around $76,700, while valuation metrics indicate unrealized losses among active investors.
According to PANews, Darkfost used the Time-Market Mean (TMM) and the AVIV ratio to assess the profit-and-loss structure of current in-market Bitcoin positions.
Darkfost said TMM excludes long-dormant Bitcoin that has not moved and coins believed to be permanently lost, focusing only on the average holding cost of active market supply. He put the current TMM level at about $76,700 and described it as a clear price resistance area, noting that during the May market move, when price reached this level, many investors exited at breakeven.
He added that the AVIV ratio, defined as active value divided by investor value, is hovering around 0.8 and remains in a discounted valuation zone. Darkfost said this implies the average active BTC investor is facing an unrealized loss of about 20%.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.17T, up by 0.86% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $61,558 and $62,980 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $62,652 up by 0.99%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading mixed. Market outperformers include HMSTR, GLMR, and TLM, up by 53%, 48%, and 47%, respectively.The Bottom Signals Are Stacking Up — Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, and Regulation All Moving in the Same DirectionA key Bitcoin on-chain indicator just hit its lowest reading since the FTX crash — the same level that preceded every major bull run in history. The macro picture is quietly shifting in the same direction: oil speculators are cutting bullish bets, JPMorgan sees gold rebounding to $4,500 by Q4, and Citi's $60 Brent call gains credibility with every week of Hormuz normalization.Solana led all blockchains in weekly activity with 29.84 million active addresses. The UK FCA published a crypto framework that keeps the door open to global liquidity while MiCA stays restrictive. Bitcoin is 16% above its realized price — a level that has historically returned 41% in six months. The signals are there. The macro is finally starting to move.Gold To Trade Rangebound Short Term Before Rebounding, JPMorgan SaysKey Takeaways:JPMorgan expects gold to remain rangebound in the near term before rebounding — forecasting an average of $4,300/oz in Q3 2026 and $4,500/oz in Q4 2026The forecast implies a meaningful recovery from gold's recent break below $4,000 — JPMorgan sees the current weakness as temporary rather than a structural reversal of the debasement tradeThe Q4 $4,500 target aligns with the disinflationary scenario: if Citi's $60 year-end Brent call materializes, headline CPI decelerates, and the Fed signals a pause rather than hikes, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold declines — restoring the debasement thesis that drove gold from $2,000 to $5,327Summary:JPMorgan's rangebound-then-rebound framing for gold is the institutional version of the same thesis that Bitcoin bulls are making: the current weakness is macro-driven and temporary, the structural debasement case is intact, and the H2 recovery depends on the inflation and rate-hike narrative shifting. If both JPMorgan on gold and Standard Chartered on Bitcoin are right, the same macro pivot — softer CPI, Fed communication shift, oil decline — lifts both assets simultaneously in Q4.Bitcoin's Realized P&L Ratio Just Hit a 43-Month Low — The Same Level That Preceded Every Major Bull RunKey Takeaways:Bitcoin's realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to −0.35 — its lowest since December 2022 (FTX collapse); CryptoQuant says the indicator has "marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision"; the three prior times it fell below −0.35 (2015, 2019, December 2022) all preceded major ralliesA reading of −0.35 means 35% more of circulating supply is at a loss than at a profit — extreme market-wide unrealized loss reflecting the 50% drawdown from the $126,080 October ATH; notably, this level was reached through a grinding macro bear market, not an FTX-scale counterparty collapseBitwise CIO Matt Hougan: the STRC capital structure stress functioned as a leverage-clearing mechanism similar to FTX liquidations; expects a new bull market in the fall; Bitcoin currently only 16% above the $53,200 realized price — Swan Bitcoin's Adam Livingston says this level has historically delivered 41% six-month and 81% 12-month forward returnsThe remaining condition: the macro catalyst that converts on-chain accumulation into broad institutional ETF inflow return; June CPI is the next scheduled opportunity; IBIT's outflow streak ending is the specific ETF confirmation that would signal broad-based institutional re-engagementSummary:A realized P&L ratio at −0.35 is not a prediction — it is a historical observation with a perfect track record across three prior occurrences. Every time this level was reached in Bitcoin's history, a major bull run followed. The current reading is the fourth occurrence. What history cannot provide is timing: the December 2022 signal preceded a recovery, but that recovery took months to develop into a sustained trend. The densest cluster of simultaneous bottom signals Bitcoin has ever produced is now assembled. The missing ingredient — macro permission — arrived partly with Thursday's 57,000 NFP print. June CPI is the next test.UK FCA Publishes Crypto Asset Regulatory Framework With Rules for Overseas Platforms and StablecoinsKey Takeaways:The FCA formally published a crypto-asset regulatory framework allowing overseas trading platforms to serve UK users through locally authorized branches and connect to global trading infrastructure — explicitly designed to avoid creating a closed domestic liquidity pool, unlike MiCA's more restrictive approachKey mechanism: the "Qualified Cryptoasset Trading Platform" (QCATP) structure links global exchanges with the UK market; stablecoins issued outside the UK can circulate in the UK — a direct contrast to the EU's MiCA model that has created friction for non-EU issuersSignificant uncertainties remain: the FCA has not clarified which jurisdictions will be recognized as providing "comparable regulatory protections"; DeFi rules remain incomplete; the FCA's AML registration approval rate has historically been below 15%, suggesting authorization will be stringentIndustry view: the framework provides an institutional basis for capital entry; the UK's positioning as a crypto hub will depend on regulatory certainty and approval efficiency in the coming months — the framework's intent is constructive, but implementation friction is realSummary:The UK's approach — permitting foreign stablecoins and global exchange access rather than building a closed domestic ecosystem — is a deliberate competitive differentiation from MiCA that positions London as a global liquidity hub rather than a protected domestic market. Whether that strategy succeeds depends on how quickly the FCA processes authorizations: a framework that takes two years to approve participants in practice is indistinguishable from a restrictive one regardless of its stated intent. The sub-15% historical AML approval rate is the implementation risk that the framework's constructive design language cannot paper over.Solana Leads Weekly On-Chain Activity With 29.84 Million Active Addresses, Nansen Data ShowsKey Takeaways:Solana ranked first in on-chain activity over the past seven days — recording ~29.84 million active addresses and processing 680 million transactions, per Nansen data cited by NS3.AIThe figures arrive alongside Solana's 17% weekly price recovery to $80, which analysts attributed partly to tokenized RWA transfer volume surging 120% to $8.53B on the Solana network — a fundamental demand layer supporting activity metricsThe contrast with Bitcoin's subdued on-chain metrics — where active addresses and transfer values remain near the low end of their recent range — reinforces the narrative that Solana is currently generating more genuine network economic activity, even as Bitcoin holds the structural accumulation signalsSummary:29.84 million weekly active addresses on Solana at a moment when Bitcoin's on-chain activity remains subdued is the data that explains why Solana outperformed Bitcoin by 10 percentage points this week. Network activity at scale — driven by tokenized RWA transfers, DeFi, and Robinhood L2 infrastructure — generates genuine economic demand that is independent of macro sentiment cycles in a way that Bitcoin's store-of-value positioning cannot replicate during risk-off environments. The divergence in on-chain activity between Solana and Bitcoin is one of the clearest structural signals of where new crypto use cases are concentrating in the current cycle.Brent And Diesel Futures Speculators Cut Net Long Positions, ICE SaysKey Takeaways:ICE data shows speculators cut net long positions in Brent crude futures by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 for the week ending June 30; diesel futures net longs also reduced by 2,664 contracts to 57,852The position cuts are consistent with Citigroup's call that the Hormuz geopolitical premium is fading as shipping flows normalize — speculative money is not adding to oil longs at current levels, reducing the technical support that had kept Brent above $70 during the ceasefire fragility periodFor Bitcoin: fewer oil longs mean less upward price pressure on crude, which means less energy-driven inflation, which means weaker justification for the Fed's hawkish dot plot — the same disinflationary chain that Thursday's 57,000 NFP began to activate through the labor market channelSummary:Speculative oil longs being trimmed at the same time the NFP missed, Citi called for $60 Brent, and Bitcoin ETFs posted their best inflow day since May is not a coincidence — it is the same macro rotation playing out across multiple markets simultaneously. Oil speculators are reducing exposure to the Hormuz risk premium that has been the primary inflationary force of 2026. As that premium fades in both speculative positioning and physical markets, the inflation narrative that drove six straight weeks of Bitcoin ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed dot plot loses its primary fuel source — sequentially, month by month, through the second half.Market movers:NVDAB: $196.7 (+0.25%)MSFTB: $391.19 (+0.40%)SPCXB: $159.91 (-0.37%)METAB: $589.56 (-0.00%)TSLAB: $401.73 (+0.60%)MUB: $1035.94 (+1.53%)AMDB: $532.21 (+0.23%)INTCB: $125.13 (+1.58%)LITEB: $760.32 (+0.98%)QQQB: $722.48 (+0.12%)

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin has entered the late stage of a bear market, citing signs that selling pressure in U.S. spot ETFs is easing. According to ChainCatcher, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $223 million in the latest trading session.
Most of the demand was concentrated in Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $166 million in net inflows, and ARKB, which recorded $91.8 million in net inflows.

Bitdeer said its Bitcoin mining output was 223.1 BTC for the week ending July 3. According to NS3.AI, the company sold 223.1 BTC over the same period.
Bitdeer reported a net addition of 0 BTC for the week, indicating it did not retain any of the Bitcoin it mined during that timeframe.

The Bhutan government deposited 700 bitcoin to a CEX (centralized exchange), according to on-chain monitoring.
According to BlockBeats On-chain Detection, the transfer was flagged by OnchainLens on July 4.

Bitcoin's realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to −0.35 — its lowest reading since December 2022, when FTX's collapse had pushed Bitcoin below $16,000 — and CryptoQuant says the indicator has "marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision." The same ratio fell below −0.35 in 2015 and 2019 before subsequent price rallies. It is now at that level again, with Bitcoin trading approximately 7% above the near two-year low of $58,190 touched on June 25, and the broader analytical consensus increasingly converging around the conclusion that the current bear market is in its later stages.
What the Realized P&L Ratio Is Measuring
The realized profit and loss ratio measures the net percentage of Bitcoin in profit or loss relative to total supply — an aggregate snapshot of whether the market as a whole is sitting on unrealized gains or unrealized losses relative to the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. A reading of −0.35 means that on a net basis, 35% more of the circulating supply is currently at a loss than at a profit — a condition of extreme market-wide loss that reflects how deeply the 50% drawdown from October's $126,080 all-time high has cut through the holder base.
The December 2022 comparison is the most useful historical reference. That reading occurred in the immediate aftermath of FTX's collapse — the most severe contagion event in crypto's history, which drove Bitcoin to a cycle low of $15,476. The fact that the current cycle has reached the same realized P&L ratio level despite not experiencing anything equivalent to an FTX-scale counterparty collapse is notable: it means the market has reached historical bottom-formation conditions through a grinding macro-driven bear market rather than an acute liquidity crisis. That distinction may matter for the recovery trajectory — macro-driven bottoms tend to resolve more gradually than crisis-driven ones.
The Historical Precision CryptoQuant Claims
CryptoQuant's characterization of the indicator as having marked BTC bottoms "with extreme precision" is supported by three specific prior instances. In 2015, the ratio fell below −0.35 before a rally that eventually reached 8,500%. In 2019, the same level preceded the recovery from the cycle low. In December 2022, a reading at this level coincided with what proved to be the final cycle low before Bitcoin's recovery from $15,476 to $126,080. The current reading is the fourth time in Bitcoin's history the indicator has reached this level — and the prior three all proved to be bottoms.
The STRC Connection and Bitwise's Bottom Call
The data arrives in the context of a market that experienced its most acute recent stress from Strategy's capital structure dynamics. Analysts attributed Bitcoin's June 25 low of $58,190 in part to STRC — Strategy's perpetual preferred stock — falling from its $100 par value to below $75, fueling concerns about the sustainability of the dividend model and introducing the first credible forced-seller narrative into Bitcoin markets since FTX.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan offered a specific and constructive interpretation of that dynamic on Thursday: the STRC move helped squeeze out excess leverage and likely brought the market closer to a bottom. His framework — that capital structure stress in Bitcoin-adjacent instruments functions as a leverage-clearing mechanism similar to the FTX liquidations that preceded December 2022's bottom — is consistent with CryptoQuant's realized P&L reading reaching the same level that followed FTX's clearing. Hougan expects a new bull market in the fall, a forecast he grounded in the leverage-clearing thesis rather than in specific price targets.
Swan Bitcoin's Adam Livingston — 16% Above Realized Price, 41% Forward Return
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston adds the most actionable framing of the current setup. Bitcoin is trading only 16% above the realized price — the network's aggregate on-chain cost basis, currently near $53,200 — a level he says has historically coincided with strong forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months. The six-month forward return projection from current levels would put Bitcoin near $87,000. The 12-month projection would approach $112,000 — below but within range of the October 2025 all-time high.
Livingston's most important observation is behavioral rather than quantitative: buying at current levels "feels awful," and that discomfort is part of why Bitcoin is trading at a discount. Markets bottom when the pain of holding or buying exceeds most participants' tolerance — which is precisely the sentiment that record $4.06 billion in June ETF outflows, 15 months of sustained altcoin net selling, and the Reuters poll consensus of no Fed cuts through 2027 reflects. He explicitly cautioned against waiting for a definitive bottom signal, noting that it does not announce itself, and recommended buying now rather than paying higher prices near the next market top.
The Convergence of Bottom Signals — And the Remaining Condition
The CryptoQuant realized P&L ratio reaching a 43-month low adds to what is now the densest cluster of simultaneous historical bottom signals Bitcoin has produced in the current cycle. Cycle momentum at -30. Sharpe ratio at -20 matching 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows. UTXO profit/loss ratio in the historical bottoming range. Loss-making supply overtaking profitable supply for the first time this cycle. 200-week SMA interaction at $62,660. Power Law support at $58,237. Record 79% long-term holder supply. 270,000 BTC absorbed by whales in two weeks. And now a realized P&L ratio at −0.35 — the exact level that preceded every prior major bull run.
The remaining condition that separates this cluster of bottom signals from a confirmed recovery is the same one that has been consistent throughout June and into July: the macro catalyst that converts on-chain accumulation into institutional ETF inflow return and sustained price recovery above the 200-week SMA. June CPI is the next scheduled opportunity. Warsh's communication trajectory following the 57,000 payrolls miss is the near-term policy signal to watch. And BlackRock's IBIT outflow streak ending would be the specific ETF flow confirmation that the institutional re-engagement is broad-based rather than Fidelity and ARK specific.

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said Strategy should explore generating income from its Bitcoin holdings rather than selling spot BTC. According to Odaily, Thorn made the comments in a July 3 research report.
Strategy previously introduced a five-part Digital Credit Capital Framework, including a U.S. dollar reserve policy, a revised STRC dividend policy, a $1 billion preferred stock repurchase authorization, a $1 billion MSTR stock repurchase authorization, and a Bitcoin monetization plan. The company also raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12% from 11.5%.
Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC and has raised more than $1 billion through common stock sales, increasing its cash coverage period to about 17 months. Thorn said Strategy could allocate a small portion of its BTC to conservative lending or options strategies to generate income while retaining most of its upside exposure.
Thorn added that Strategy still faces preferred stock obligations and $6.7 billion in outstanding convertible debt maturing from 2027 to 2028.

Strategy (MSTR) holds a bitcoin amount equal to 1.3 times the combined holdings of all governments, according to a post by BitcoinTreasuries.NET on X. According to Odaily, the statement was shared by BitcoinTreasuries.NET in its social media update.

Michael Saylor said approximately 100 million people are currently exposed to Bitcoin through Strategy common stock.
According to NS3.AI, Saylor also said Strategy has become the largest stock-issuing company in the U.S.

Michael Saylor ended a Channel 4 interview after being questioned about Strategy’s nearly 850,000 Bitcoins and Bitcoin’s long-term downside risk.
According to NS3.AI, Bitcoin traded around $61,937, down 42% over the past year.
The report also said Strategy’s common stock fell 75% over the past 12 months.

CryptoQuant said deposits of bitcoin, ether, and altcoins to exchanges have surged, a pattern it said can signal higher crypto market volatility ahead.
According to NS3.AI, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno said bitcoin deposits reached nearly 49,000 BTC on June 30.
Moreno described the level as close to a rare extreme that has been seen only four other times this year.