Bit_Rase

Nonfarm payrolls crash, crypto turns into a celebration— we’ve all been PUA’d by U.S. data
All crypto people should thank those 57,000.
Not because they’re so capable—on the contrary—
it’s because they couldn’t find a job.
24 hours ago, we were still trembling.
Morgan Stanley’s warning is still pinned to the trending list:
“Unemployment rate falls below 4%, forcing the Fed to raise rates.”
Kashkari’s hawkish face is still vivid in memory:
“One rate hike in 2026, no change in 2027.”
The entire market has been suffocated by those two words: “rate hikes.”
BTC is barely hanging on around $58,000,
alts are dropping so hard you can’t even recognize their original coins,
and the vibe in the group is heavier than a funeral.
Then, a miracle happened.
Last night’s Nonfarm data was like a bucket of cold water splashed onto the Fed:
Forecast: 115,000; Actual: 57,000.
Cut in half—more than that.
The market instantly went wild:
BTC surged straight from $58,000 to above $62,000, up 6% in a single day;
ETH broke through $1,700;
Strategy rose 7.9%;
The entire crypto sector rallied broadly—full screen green, like New Year.
Bad Nonfarm → economy not as good as imagined → no reason for the Fed to hike → dollar weakens → risk assets celebrate
You don’t need to understand any technical indicators, or look at any on-chain data.
You just need to bet that Americans can’t find jobs.
Even more surreal is the 180-degree reversal in rate expectations:
On July 1, Fed officials were still saying “may need to raise rates.”
On July 2, CME FedWatch showed:
The probability of holding rates steady in July jumped to 82.4%.
In just a few days, hawkish pricing nearly fully reversed.
That’s called getting slapped in the face.
In crypto, prices rise and fall based on the numbers cooked up every month by the U.S. Department of Labor.
You think you’re trading Bitcoin?
No—you’re trading the U.S. employment report.
You think you’re betting on the market?
No—you’re betting on whether Americans can find jobs.
The first Friday of every month matters ten thousand times more than your K-line indicators.
That night, you weren’t a blockchain believer—you were a gambler waiting for the cards to be dealt.
On July 3, U.S. stocks are closed for Independence Day, and the market reopens on July 6 after the long weekend.
Between those days there are three days of emotion building.
What will happen in those three days?
Will someone reinterpret the data again?
Will any Fed officials come out to “correct course”?
Will new geopolitical conflicts jump in to grab the headlines?
You can always believe this: good news can’t hold up through a weekend in crypto.

57,000! A Fed rate-hike script—torn to shreds on the spot by jobs data!
57,000 vs the expected 110,000.
It’s nearly a double difference.
That’s a slap in the face.
Just when everyone was still debating whether the hawkish madman Waller would hike in September—
US employment data directly handed out a loud, decisive, no-mercy slap.
On July 2, the June jobs report was released:
Only 57,000 jobs were added.
The expectation was 110,000.
Even harsher: May’s prior value was revised downward from 172,000 to 129,000.
You think this is a coincidence?
Look at the ADP released the day before—also 98,000, also a flop.
Two separate data sets, using different reporting standards, point to the same direction:
The job market really is cooling down.
But here’s what’s interesting in the data—
the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2%, the lowest since June 2025.
Employment is collapsing, yet the unemployment rate is dropping?
How do you account for that?
It’s simple: the labor force participation rate is likely falling at the same time.
What does that mean?
A large number of Americans are no longer looking for jobs.
They’re outside the employment market, so they don’t count as unemployed.
So the unemployment rate looks “better” on paper.
This is called false prosperity.
Fewer people are job hunting, and fewer openings are being created.
Both sides shrink together.
Once the data came out:
Gold shot straight up, hitting $4,120.
The US dollar index dumped 30 points.
US stock index futures surged collectively.
All assets are doing the same thing:
Pricing in the delay of rate hikes.
Note—delay, not cancellation.
But in this market, as long as there’s no rate hike, it’s good news.
Earlier, the market priced in a September hike.
Now?
That expectation is being withdrawn.
What does this mean for BTC?
The $58,000 level—I’ve always found it awkward.
It’s neither up nor down; both bulls and bears feel uncomfortable.
But last night’s jobs report gave me a judgment:
$58K may be the policy floor for this round of adjustment.
Why?
Because the biggest enemy of interest-free assets has never been regulation, not hackers, not miners selling off—
It’s rate hikes.
Rate hikes raise the cost of capital, and risk assets are hit first.
Once rate-hike expectations fade, BTC’s valuation pressure can loosen.
Why is gold rising so fast?
Because it’s also an interest-free asset.
Same logic: what gold is reflecting, BTC will reflect as well.
Same direction—different magnitude