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CryptoZeno
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CryptoZeno

Verified Creator on #BinanceSquare #CoinMarketCap and #CryptoQuant | On Chain Research and Market Insights with Smart Trading Signals
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The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big MovesI’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Let’s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine you’re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DON’T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. → Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DON’T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅ Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). ✍️Quick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅ Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅ 🎓Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. 🎓Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. → Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: 🎓Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Steps✍️: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria 🎓 Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. 🎓What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out. You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy

The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves

I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do.
In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses.
This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about.
Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies
Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is.
Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions.
The Two Trading Styles
Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend)
One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts.
Let’s consider this through a visual example.
Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher).
Momentum assumes the level will break.
You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken.
Mean reversion assumes the level will hold.
You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling.
Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies.
There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned.
The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy).
Lesson 1 Summary
There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money.
Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout.
You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out.
That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment.
The Rowing Analogy
Imagine you’re rowing a boat.
You either row against or with the current.
One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort.
Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did.
Trading is the same.
Your strategy is your boat.
Your optimal trade environment is the current.
Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current).
Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level?
What you WANT:
A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement.
What you DON’T want:
A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum.
The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further.
Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly.
→ Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles.
Real Trade Example:
Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅
Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like?
Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it.
What you WANT:
Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum.
What you DON’T want:
Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?)
Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic.
This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact.
Real Trade Example:
Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅
Lastly,
Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers
This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum).
What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend.
What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision.
Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation.
Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average).
✍️Quick Actionable Step:
To add the 30SMMA on your charts:
Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30"
Real Trade Example:
Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅
Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅
Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅
🎓Lesson 2 Summary
Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Now you know what momentum is.
You also know the optimal conditions for it.
Next, you need to know where to execute these trades.
Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels
Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently.
I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article.
Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals.
Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article.
Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart
Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing.
Why 1-minute chart?
You learn faster.
More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology.
I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article.
Real Trade Example:
Step 3: Three Filters
Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2:
Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)?
If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions.
🎓Lesson 3 Summary
Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly
Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit
You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions.
Now you need precise execution.
Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup.
This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution.
Step 4: Entry Trigger
We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing.
Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing.
Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward.
→ Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you.
Real Trade Example:
Step 5: Stop Loss
A swing low is:
the lowest wick in a pullback.
Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout.
Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility
Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down.
Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop)
Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction
If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it.
Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach.
Real Trade Example:
🎓Lesson 4 summary
Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way.
Immediate Next Steps✍️:
Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria
🎓 Final Summary
Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion
Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment.
Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge.
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely.
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade.
Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit
Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way.
🎓What Changes From Here
The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out.
You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through.
You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets.
#CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
$BTC Aggregated spot orderbook depth delta is becoming less positive on the deeper levels. Price is pushing into a pocket of heavier passive supply. Once the TWAP buyer backs off, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fast flush lower. To me a level to get a decent rejection is 64K {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Aggregated spot orderbook depth delta is becoming less positive on the deeper levels. Price is pushing into a pocket of heavier passive supply. Once the TWAP buyer backs off, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fast flush lower. To me a level to get a decent rejection is 64K
Attention made lower highs. So did on-chain volume. 2021 top: $800B+ weeks moving on-chain at $69K 2025 top: $280B at $123K Price doubled. Volume was cut to a third. In actual coins moved, it's not even close. Two $BTC datasets. One conclusion. {future}(BTCUSDT)
Attention made lower highs. So did on-chain volume.

2021 top: $800B+ weeks moving on-chain at $69K
2025 top: $280B at $123K

Price doubled. Volume was cut to a third. In actual coins moved, it's not even close.

Two $BTC datasets. One conclusion.
If you haven't made money this week in the trenches what even are you doing We've seen some CRAZY volume with Ansem's bull meta Memecoins haven't been this hot since 2025 Solana summer loading {future}(SOLUSDT)
If you haven't made money this week in the trenches what even are you doing

We've seen some CRAZY volume with Ansem's bull meta

Memecoins haven't been this hot since 2025

Solana summer loading
$BTC Rising Wedge Pattern LTF (15 min) rising wedge breaking down. If this pattern plays out and the 200sma is lost, we'll easily see the 60-61k range next. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Rising Wedge Pattern

LTF (15 min) rising wedge breaking down.

If this pattern plays out and the 200sma is lost, we'll easily see the 60-61k range next.
$BTC The current liquidation ratio is 1:3, with odds skewed in bears favor. {future}(BTCUSDT) Looking at that and the upcoming pivot we have on 6th June, It clearly looks like we are gonna dump to 59-61k before having a continuation towards upside. I am currently in a short from 63.3k (was shared in my discord corner), The upside surely can extend till 65k but I think we will get a pullback first before any further upside. The HTF goal remains the same as before (Low 50s), and I won't consider price bottomed until we break below 55k. I will be sharing my bottom bidding plan for the bull market soon.
$BTC The current liquidation ratio is 1:3, with odds skewed in bears favor.

Looking at that and the upcoming pivot we have on 6th June,

It clearly looks like we are gonna dump to 59-61k before having a continuation towards upside.

I am currently in a short from 63.3k (was shared in my discord corner),

The upside surely can extend till 65k but I think we will get a pullback first before any further upside.

The HTF goal remains the same as before (Low 50s), and I won't consider price bottomed until we break below 55k.

I will be sharing my bottom bidding plan for the bull market soon.
$BTC It's that time... {future}(BTCUSDT) Watch how price develops into Monday. If Monday forms a pivot high, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot low. Conversely, if Monday forms a pivot low, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot high. The Wednesday pivot typically drives price into Thursday. This intra-week correlation has now played out 9/10 times.
$BTC It's that time...

Watch how price develops into Monday. If Monday forms a pivot high, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot low. Conversely, if Monday forms a pivot low, it suggests Wednesday is likely to form a pivot high.

The Wednesday pivot typically drives price into Thursday.

This intra-week correlation has now played out 9/10 times.
$BTC Based on the Power Law Model, we are currently trading just above the historical undervaluation band. {future}(BTCUSDT) Historically, whenever price has traded this close to the lower band, it has coincided with major macro bottoms. The 60k region is going to be a very interesting area on revisit. If we continue holding above that region, it could be a sign of an early bottom. Do keep in mind that we're trading inside the macro bottom zone and the risk-to-reward here is becoming increasingly skewed to the upside. From a macro perspective, we're far more bullish than bearish at these levels.
$BTC Based on the Power Law Model, we are currently trading just above the historical undervaluation band.

Historically, whenever price has traded this close to the lower band, it has coincided with major macro bottoms.

The 60k region is going to be a very interesting area on revisit. If we continue holding above that region, it could be a sign of an early bottom.

Do keep in mind that we're trading inside the macro bottom zone and the risk-to-reward here is becoming increasingly skewed to the upside.

From a macro perspective, we're far more bullish than bearish at these levels.
$BTC This is wild. Last bear market, we saw roughly a 78% drawdown over a 54-week period. Now we’re 38 weeks into the bear market and have so far seen a 54% decline from the top. Comparing these stats shows that, on both metrics, we’re currently at around 70% of the previous bear market. The biggest deviation from previous cycles was the last one, which bottomed at around 86%. Keeping in mind that we have both diminishing returns and diminishing drawdowns, a bottom at 70% of the previous bear market doesn’t sound so crazy anymore. Everyone who follows me knows that I think the probability of another push to the downside is high. But even if we see that, we’re extremely close to the bottom, and in my opinion, the upside heavily outweighs the downside risk. That’s why I’m currently looking for my first swing long of the upcoming bull market. Enjoy these cheap prices while they last. We’ll likely never see BTC at these levels again after this cycle. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC This is wild.
Last bear market, we saw roughly a 78% drawdown over a 54-week period.

Now we’re 38 weeks into the bear market and have so far seen a 54% decline from the top.

Comparing these stats shows that, on both metrics, we’re currently at around 70% of the previous bear market.

The biggest deviation from previous cycles was the last one, which bottomed at around 86%.

Keeping in mind that we have both diminishing returns and diminishing drawdowns, a bottom at 70% of the previous bear market doesn’t sound so crazy anymore.

Everyone who follows me knows that I think the probability of another push to the downside is high. But even if we see that, we’re extremely close to the bottom, and in my opinion, the upside heavily outweighs the downside risk.

That’s why I’m currently looking for my first swing long of the upcoming bull market.

Enjoy these cheap prices while they last. We’ll likely never see BTC at these levels again after this cycle.
Two hackers just pushed $38 MILLION in stolen crypto through Tornado Cash in a single afternoon. The money traces back to two separate hacks from months ago. One is Step Finance, a Solana platform drained of nearly $28 MILLION back in January. That hack was so bad that the company shut down completely weeks later. The other is UXLINK, hit for $44 MILLION last September. Both attackers sat on the funds for months, then moved today, almost in sync. 15,998 ETH from the Step Finance hacker. 6,000 ETH from the UXLINK one. All of it funneled into Tornado Cash, the mixer built to break the trail between wallets. It's the same everytime. Steal it, wait for the heat to die down, then wash it quietly. {future}(ETHUSDT)
Two hackers just pushed $38 MILLION in stolen crypto through Tornado Cash in a single afternoon.

The money traces back to two separate hacks from months ago.

One is Step Finance, a Solana platform drained of nearly $28 MILLION back in January.

That hack was so bad that the company shut down completely weeks later.

The other is UXLINK, hit for $44 MILLION last September.

Both attackers sat on the funds for months, then moved today, almost in sync.

15,998 ETH from the Step Finance hacker. 6,000 ETH from the UXLINK one.

All of it funneled into Tornado Cash, the mixer built to break the trail between wallets.

It's the same everytime. Steal it, wait for the heat to die down, then wash it quietly.
$BTC Price continues to follow the same pivots as the 2018 bear market. The focus now is how high this lower high extends into late July, which remains the next major pivot to watch. No shorts until then. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Price continues to follow the same pivots as the 2018 bear market.

The focus now is how high this lower high extends into late July, which remains the next major pivot to watch.

No shorts until then.
$BTC Market structure still bearish. Just looking at the overall market structure, this doesn’t look bullish yet. We still have a clean downtrend with multiple lower highs and lower lows. That said, with price currently pumping, market structure could start to flip bullish again if we break above the last lower high at 68k. Of course, one higher high doesn’t invalidate the entire downtrend, but it does set the stage for a potential trend shift. If we break above 68k and then print a higher low, things could get interesting, and I’ll consider starting to look for longs. If, on the other hand, we break below 58k, the downtrend remains intact and I expect a move toward 55k. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Market structure still bearish.

Just looking at the overall market structure, this doesn’t look bullish yet.

We still have a clean downtrend with multiple lower highs and lower lows.

That said, with price currently pumping, market structure could start to flip bullish again if we break above the last lower high at 68k.

Of course, one higher high doesn’t invalidate the entire downtrend, but it does set the stage for a potential trend shift.

If we break above 68k and then print a higher low, things could get interesting, and I’ll consider starting to look for longs.

If, on the other hand, we break below 58k, the downtrend remains intact and I expect a move toward 55k.
the downside hasn’t been as bad as in the past; i think it’s the number of perceived bottoms that has caused the apathy. fourth times a charm? $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
the downside hasn’t been as bad as in the past; i think it’s the number of perceived bottoms that has caused the apathy. fourth times a charm? $BTC
$NOM is up roughly 30%. {future}(NOMUSDT) Despite volume dropping off over the weekend, price keeps getting pulled higher through long positions opened in futures. Liq clusters on the heatmap are also supporting this move. With weekend low liquidity the order book will be even thinner. If it continues climbing like this much higher levels could be in play. I covered the liq heatmap levels in the post I quoted. Worth checking out.
$NOM is up roughly 30%.

Despite volume dropping off over the weekend, price keeps getting pulled higher through long positions opened in futures.

Liq clusters on the heatmap are also supporting this move.

With weekend low liquidity the order book will be even thinner. If it continues climbing like this much higher levels could be in play.

I covered the liq heatmap levels in the post I quoted. Worth checking out.
$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps {future}(BTCUSDT) Timeline is looking more optimistic and some indicators are pointing toward the bottom being in. And yeah, a sweep of the lows with bounce instead of another flush is bullish. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're still inside the range and everything below 65.7k is just noise. What we need to see: continuous strength and a higher high above 67k. That's when the picture really changes. So far we're just seeing a countertrend bounce in an obvious downtrend. Enjoy the weekend and see you soon!
$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

Timeline is looking more optimistic and some indicators are pointing toward the bottom being in.

And yeah, a sweep of the lows with bounce instead of another flush is bullish.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're still inside the range and everything below 65.7k is just noise.

What we need to see: continuous strength and a higher high above 67k. That's when the picture really changes.

So far we're just seeing a countertrend bounce in an obvious downtrend.

Enjoy the weekend and see you soon!
$BTC liq & positioning {future}(BTCUSDT) Short-term, we’ve cleared most of the liquidity clusters above us. > Long liqLevels: 446, Short liqLevels: 73 Δ: 373 (~$14B imbalance) That doesn’t mean we immediately dump. It means leverage is building, and once selling starts, the move down can accelerate much faster. The largest liquidity magnet is still 58.8k. One thing to keep in mind: it’s the weekend. Weekends usually mean more ranging and liquidity spikes, making positioning below current price more interesting. At the same time, flows remain bullish. In a thin weekend order book, even relatively small buying flows can keep pushing price higher. primary expectation atm is lower from here but i wouldnt give too much weight on saturday PA
$BTC liq & positioning
Short-term, we’ve cleared most of the liquidity clusters above us.

> Long liqLevels: 446, Short liqLevels: 73
Δ: 373 (~$14B imbalance)

That doesn’t mean we immediately dump. It means leverage is building, and once selling starts, the move down can accelerate much faster.
The largest liquidity magnet is still 58.8k.

One thing to keep in mind: it’s the weekend.

Weekends usually mean more ranging and liquidity spikes, making positioning below current price more interesting.

At the same time, flows remain bullish. In a thin weekend order book, even relatively small buying flows can keep pushing price higher.

primary expectation atm is lower from here but i wouldnt give too much weight on saturday PA
$BTC LTF Double Top 15 min DT + FVG below. Should pullback soon, once late longs finish piling in. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC LTF Double Top

15 min DT + FVG below.

Should pullback soon, once late longs finish piling in.
$BTC Price tapped into our first zone and showed rejection from there, But I am still not in any swing short yet, took a scalp short but closed in profits, We still got decent liquidity built above us, So, I am looking for price to tap into the second zone then I will start building a swing short. Like I said, the bottom is not in and this is just a relief pump before we head towards Low 50s. Just a matter of time before we form the Lower High and drop lower. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Price tapped into our first zone and showed rejection from there,

But I am still not in any swing short yet, took a scalp short but closed in profits,

We still got decent liquidity built above us,

So, I am looking for price to tap into the second zone then I will start building a swing short.

Like I said, the bottom is not in and this is just a relief pump before we head towards Low 50s.

Just a matter of time before we form the Lower High and drop lower.
$BTC After the last attempt by the bulls to find acceptance back inside the yearly value area, price broke below it once again, sweeping 58k. {future}(BTCUSDT) Now, after the bounce, we’re very close to a retest of the yearly Value Area Low. This is a crucial point that will determine whether we immediately move lower again or finally get a real rally. If price finds acceptance above 62.4k, it will most likely move toward the yearly POC around 68k. If we get rejected again, or if price breaks back inside but fails to find acceptance at these higher prices, another sweep of the lows becomes very likely.
$BTC After the last attempt by the bulls to find acceptance back inside the yearly value area, price broke below it once again, sweeping 58k.

Now, after the bounce, we’re very close to a retest of the yearly Value Area Low.

This is a crucial point that will determine whether we immediately move lower again or finally get a real rally.

If price finds acceptance above 62.4k, it will most likely move toward the yearly POC around 68k.

If we get rejected again, or if price breaks back inside but fails to find acceptance at these higher prices, another sweep of the lows becomes very likely.
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