Aria Naka

💥 $BTC New ATH in around 800 days...

#Bitcoin Price is approaching the timing window where previous bear markets have bottomed, yet everyone is starting to lower their targets.

With price down roughly 50% from the ATH, the risk/reward is becoming increasingly favourable. Could price still drop another 10-15%? Absolutely. But the risk is now skewed to the upside.

I'm buying. My spot allocation is currently 80%, and I remain swing long from 59.4K.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC New ATH in around 800 days...

Price is approaching the timing window where previous bear markets have bottomed, yet everyone is starting to lower their targets.

With price down roughly 50% from the ATH, the risk/reward is becoming increasingly favourable. Could price still drop another 10-15%? Absolutely. But the risk is now skewed to the upside.

I'm buying. My spot allocation is currently 80%, and I remain swing long from 59.4K. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

#Bitcoin Whale Share on Gate Tripled to 16% and Held Through the Drawdown

Even as $BTC pulled below $60K through Q2 2026, whale flows stayed resilient. The last 30 days show $79.3 million in whale inflow, up 11.6% versus the prior window. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

💥 $BTC This is utter ETF capitulation.

Which I believe Is a really healthy sign for the market here.

ETFs just locked in their second largest ever week of outflows, totalling $1.8bn!

This is second only to March 2025 when #BTC bottomed around $75k.

But the craziest thing is that 90% of all ETF purchases are underwater.

Meaning these guys have truly been capitulating at a massive loss.

The kinda thing we see at bottoms. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC It's time...

Watch how price develops into Monday. If Monday forms a pivot low, it would suggest Wednesday is likely to form a pivot high. Conversely, if Monday forms a pivot high, it would suggest Wednesday is likely to form a pivot low.

The Wednesday pivot typically drives price into Thursday.

This intra-week correlation has played out 8/9 times. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
liq & positioning
Weekend positioning is becoming noticeably more balanced.

> Long liqLevels: 243 I Short liqLevels: 432 (Δ: -189)
> cumulative liquidation levels delta has dropped to roughly $4, down from $12- $15B a few days ago.

Looking only at 100M+ positions, the picture even flips:

7 major longs vs. 4 major shorts.

> Yesterday we cleared the ~$300M liquidity level around 60.8k and got rejected almost immediately.
> That FVG rejection offered a clean short.

On the HTF, nothing has changed for me. The largest liquidity concentration is still around 57.7k-57.3k, which remains my primary swing POI.

Short term there’s still liquidity around 61-62k, but the larger liquidity cluster remains below price, which still fits my weekend thesis.

So far, the roadmap is clear for me, nothing to do for me in between my POIs #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC It'll be obvious in hindsight...

During the previous bear market, the deviation below the prior capitulation wick offered a generational buying opportunity.

This cycle has now swept that capitulation wick, which is why I've been aggressively adding to my spot position. It doesn't necessarily mean the bear market bottom is in, but it does suggest this is the time to start buying rather than lowering your targets.

I'm currently 75% allocated to spot and swing long from 59.4K. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

🚨 $BTC Just Flashed an On Chain Signal That Could Mark the End of Distribution. #Bitcoin Exchange Outflow 30 Day Change has climbed back above the zero line after an extended period of negative readings, signaling a meaningful shift in investor behavior. Why does this matter? Exchange outflows represent coins leaving trading platforms and moving into private wallets, a pattern that typically reflects accumulation rather than immediate selling. Historically, sustained positive outflow momentum has appeared during periods when long term holders quietly absorb supply before the broader market recognizes the trend. What's even more interesting is that this transition is occurring while Bitcoin remains under heavy macro uncertainty. Price has corrected sharply, sentiment is fragile, yet on chain data suggests selling pressure may already be fading as more coins leave exchanges. This divergence has preceded several major trend reversals in previous market cycles. When exchange reserves begin to decline while demand stabilizes, available supply tightens and the probability of a stronger upside expansion increases. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC weekend outlook

Compared to yesterday, there are fewer stacked asks above price, while bid pressure below continues to build.

Into the weekend we saw some long positioning unwind while shorts came in, yet spot still looked like the main seller.

Positioning hasn’t changed much:

> Long/short ratio remains similar. > Binance top traders are still holding net long exposure.
> Looking at the individual liquidity levels, high leverage positions continue stacking on both sides of the current range -> shorts are way more at risk looking at levels
My expectation for today is fairly simple:

Probably a slow saturday range with occasional positioning hunts. I still lean toward taking liquidity below first, but weekend flows can get random very quickly.

Nothing changes for me.
Levels are defined. Now it’s about waiting for price to come to them. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🚨 BlackRock has moved more than $600 MILLION of $BTC and $ETH onto Coinbase Prime in the past two days.

And it's landing at the worst possible moment, with Bitcoin barely holding its level.

This is supposed to be the most patient money in the market.

The firm that sold the world on crypto as a longterm hold are the first to sell when things start looking shaky. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🚨 $BTC BEAR MARKET BLUEPRINT: ARE WE REPEATING HISTORY? #Bitcoin is flashing one of the most controversial technical setups of the cycle. By overlaying the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear market structures, price action is beginning to align with the historical post-peak compression phase that previously preceded the final capitulation event. The current structure suggests BTC has already entered a critical distribution-to-decline transition. Historical bear cycles recorded drawdowns of 57%, 63%, and 64% before entering a prolonged unification zone. If this fractal continues to play out, the $35K–$45K range could become the final battleground between institutional accumulation and panic-driven selling. What makes this setup particularly alarming is the descending channel now forming after a projected 53% correction. In previous cycles, similar structures produced a final exhaustion move that pushed total drawdowns toward 77%, 84%, and even 86% from cycle highs before a macro bottom was established. Technical analysis is not prediction, but probability. Right now, the chart is sending a clear message: Bitcoin remains above long term survival levels, yet the risk of a deeper liquidity flush cannot be ignored. The next few months may determine whether this cycle breaks history or becomes another chapter of the same brutal bear market playbook. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

#Bitcoin The curve flattens and returns decline (blue)

Interesting to see others with a similar diminishing returns curve also had a period with more sideways price action and no outstanding new highs for a while before the big breakout.

I still believe one day $BTC will follow. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
liq & positioning
> Long liqLevels: 157 | Short liqLevels: 391 (Δ: -234)
~$8B imbalance.
> Short-skewed, but not extreme -> shorts more at risk
> No major single liquidity levels stand out nearby.
Zooming out tells the better story.

> 1M aggregation still shows plenty of liquidity sitting below the equal lows. The structure down here isn’t particularly strong.
> Biggest liquidity concentration remains overhead into 69-70k.
Next major liquidity pocket below sits around 57k-58k that’s where I’d be interested in building the next swing hedge long

Still, thursday is the worst performing day of BTC, something to keep in mind #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
Nunca ha sido un mal momento para comprar durante el azul oscuro.

Ya podemos ver que los ciclos alcistas no logran alcanzar los mismos niveles de volatilidad parabólica al alza.

Mi teoría es que los futuros mínimos seguirán la misma tendencia.

El precio simplemente no bajará tan profundo como la gente espera. #Análisis de Precio BTC# #Perspectivas Macro#

El precio de $BTC acaba de barrer los mínimos iguales que estaban en 59,800, que el mercado había estado construyendo desde febrero; eso es el 'fuel stop' hecho. Ahora estamos flotando en 62,860 dentro de lo que yo veo como una área de suministro entre 63k y 65k y la estructura simplemente no se siente como un retroceso para mí. Se siente como un retroceso de vuelta a la distribución.

Mi plan es simple. Estoy buscando ponerme 'short' desde arriba del POI. Si el precio sube a 63.5k a 65k, ahí soy vendedor.

El flujo de órdenes respalda esto. La caída de junio fue impulsada por una presión de venta implacable, con básicamente ningún comprador real entrando en los mínimos. El rebote desde 59.8k tiene todas las características de una reacción pasiva, no de dinero inteligente acumulando. El perfil de volumen muestra que casi nada se negoció entre 65k y 71k en la bajada, lo que me dice que el precio no tiene negocio real allí arriba. Probablemente solo pasará.

El interés abierto ha estado subiendo mientras el precio no va a ningún lado; eso no es un 'squeeze' que se esté formando, son personas posicionándose 'short' en este movimiento hacia arriba.
Niveles clave que estoy observando: zona de entrada de 63.5k a 65k, 72k a 74k es el nivel que cambia todo, 80k a 84k y ahí me equivoco.

Si obtenemos un cierre diario por encima de 72k con volumen real detrás, reevaluaré. Por encima de 80k, toda la idea se elimina.
El objetivo es 58k. Stops por encima del POI. Ese es el trade. #Análisis de Precio BTC# #Perspectivas Macro#

$BTC Volumen Spot Desbalance del Libro de Órdenes

SVOBI está alto en el rango actual...

Esto es típico cuando el precio entra en una zona de demanda.

Es probable que veamos una batalla por 62k de nuevo.

Le estoy dando una ligera ventaja a 61k a continuación, viendo que hay más de 2b en liquidación allí. #Análisis de Precio BTC# #Perspectivas Macro#

$BTC
Hasta ahora todo bien, el precio barrió el pwL (62.3k) y tocó nuestra zona de rebote.

Hay una posibilidad de que esta zona se mantenga y lleguemos a 65k de nuevo.

Si logramos el cierre de 4H por encima del pwL (62.3k), entonces es muy probable que lleguemos a 65k nuevamente y luego comencemos a hacer un 'dump'. #Análisis de Precio BTC# #Perspectivas Macroeconómicas#

$BTC
Interesante...
Históricamente, 826 días después del halving ha marcado la fase final de capitulación en el fondo del mercado bajista. Siguiendo este pivote, ha tomado entre 70 y 110 días poner el mínimo importante.

Eso coloca el pivote de 826 días el 6 de julio, lo que significa que el fondo del mercado bajista podría formarse a principios de septiembre.

Este no era mi escenario base, pero si el precio sube más a principios de julio en lugar de bajar, esperaría que este camino se desarrolle. #Análisis de Precio #BTC# #Perspectivas Macroeconómicas#

$BTC
se negoció entre $61K y $67K antes de estabilizarse cerca de $65K. La demanda institucional se ha suavizado, pero el comportamiento resistente de los holders y la posición estable en futuros siguen apoyando un marco de mercado constructivo. #Análisis de Precio BTC# #Perspectivas Macroeconómicas# #Temporada de Altcoins#

$BTC
Actualización & Mapas de Calor de Hyblock
#Bitcoin se está ajustando en este patrón (ve el gráfico) y cuanto más se comprime, más liquidez se está acumulando en ambos lados - revisa los mapas de calor, está creciendo rápido.

Prepárate para cacerías de liquidez y falsas salidas en esta etapa.

Y ten en cuenta, la acción real comienza detrás de los niveles clave (59k-65.7k). Un rompimiento en cualquier dirección no será un movimiento pequeño, el combustible está ahí, solo está esperando un detonador.

Todo lo que esté por debajo de 65.7k es bajista, así que personalmente, espero movimientos falsos hacia arriba y luego otro movimiento hacia abajo. Pero esto puede interrumpirse aquí por un tiempo más primero.

¡Que tengas un gran inicio de semana y nos vemos pronto! #Análisis de Precio de BTC# #Perspectivas Macro#