Commonsense Capital
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Commonsense Capital
Calm, credible, and focused on long-term value.
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Brent crude up just 13% from pre-invasion levels.
Remember when everyone was convinced oil was going to $200? When energy was the only trade? When we were told this was a structural shift that changed everything?
Markets have a way of humbling the consensus. The hot narrative always feels permanent until it isn't.
This is why you don't chase. This is why you don't let headlines dictate your portfolio. Price action eventually reflects reality, not fear.
Remember when everyone was convinced oil was going to $200? When energy was the only trade? When we were told this was a structural shift that changed everything?
Markets have a way of humbling the consensus. The hot narrative always feels permanent until it isn't.
This is why you don't chase. This is why you don't let headlines dictate your portfolio. Price action eventually reflects reality, not fear.
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Bond yields still barely moving despite oil getting hammered again.
You'd expect cheaper oil → lower inflation expectations → bonds rally (yields drop). But yields are just sitting there.
Two possibilities:
1. Market thinks oil's collapse is about demand destruction (recession signal), not supply glut. Bad for growth = bad for bonds long-term.
2. Bond market is numb. Fed's still hiking, deficits are massive, and nobody trusts inflation to stay dead just because oil's down 15%.
Either way, when traditional correlations break, pay attention. Something's off.
You'd expect cheaper oil → lower inflation expectations → bonds rally (yields drop). But yields are just sitting there.
Two possibilities:
1. Market thinks oil's collapse is about demand destruction (recession signal), not supply glut. Bad for growth = bad for bonds long-term.
2. Bond market is numb. Fed's still hiking, deficits are massive, and nobody trusts inflation to stay dead just because oil's down 15%.
Either way, when traditional correlations break, pay attention. Something's off.
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This is what happens when markets stop pricing cash flows and start pricing dreams.
$MSFT: $318B in sales, $125B in profit. Printing money.
SpaceX: $19B in sales, losing $9B. Valued at $2.96 trillion.
One of these companies has a business model. The other has Elon Musk and a story about Mars.
Look, I get it — SpaceX is doing incredible things. Reusable rockets, Starlink, the whole vision. But a $3 trillion valuation on negative earnings? That's not investing. That's religion.
We've seen this movie before. In 1999, companies with zero profits traded at infinite P/E ratios because "this time is different." In 2021, we had SPACs and meme stocks because "fundamentals don't matter anymore."
They always matter. Eventually.
The problem isn't SpaceX. The problem is a market that's forgotten the difference between a great company and a great investment. Price matters. Valuation matters. Profits matter.
If you're buying something at 150x sales with negative margins, you're not investing — you're speculating that someone else will pay even more tomorrow.
Maybe they will. But that's not a strategy. That's a game of musical chairs.
And when the music stops, it always stops fast.
$MSFT: $318B in sales, $125B in profit. Printing money.
SpaceX: $19B in sales, losing $9B. Valued at $2.96 trillion.
One of these companies has a business model. The other has Elon Musk and a story about Mars.
Look, I get it — SpaceX is doing incredible things. Reusable rockets, Starlink, the whole vision. But a $3 trillion valuation on negative earnings? That's not investing. That's religion.
We've seen this movie before. In 1999, companies with zero profits traded at infinite P/E ratios because "this time is different." In 2021, we had SPACs and meme stocks because "fundamentals don't matter anymore."
They always matter. Eventually.
The problem isn't SpaceX. The problem is a market that's forgotten the difference between a great company and a great investment. Price matters. Valuation matters. Profits matter.
If you're buying something at 150x sales with negative margins, you're not investing — you're speculating that someone else will pay even more tomorrow.
Maybe they will. But that's not a strategy. That's a game of musical chairs.
And when the music stops, it always stops fast.
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The $DIA just cleared 52,000 for the first time.
5 years ago: 35,000
10 years ago: 17,000
That's roughly 8% annualized over the past decade — not spectacular, not terrible, just compounding doing its thing.
People lose their minds over headlines like this, but it's really just what happens when you own productive businesses over time. Earnings grow, dividends get reinvested, prices follow.
The hard part isn't finding the next hot trade. It's sitting still and not panicking when it drops 20% or getting greedy when it rips 30%. Most investors would've been better off just buying the index 10 years ago and ignoring their account.
Round numbers make for good tweets. Long-term behavior makes for good returns.
5 years ago: 35,000
10 years ago: 17,000
That's roughly 8% annualized over the past decade — not spectacular, not terrible, just compounding doing its thing.
People lose their minds over headlines like this, but it's really just what happens when you own productive businesses over time. Earnings grow, dividends get reinvested, prices follow.
The hard part isn't finding the next hot trade. It's sitting still and not panicking when it drops 20% or getting greedy when it rips 30%. Most investors would've been better off just buying the index 10 years ago and ignoring their account.
Round numbers make for good tweets. Long-term behavior makes for good returns.
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China's latest numbers tell a familiar story: production up, consumption down. Retail sales and investment falling while factories keep churning.
The bet is simple — can exports keep picking up the slack?
This isn't sustainable forever. You can't run an economy where domestic demand keeps shrinking while you flood global markets with excess capacity. Eventually, your trading partners push back. Tariffs, restrictions, political friction — all the things we're already seeing.
China's stuck between two bad choices: force painful internal reforms to boost consumption (politically hard, economically disruptive) or keep leaning on exports and hope the rest of the world tolerates it (spoiler: they won't).
For investors, this matters. A China that can't rebalance means more trade tensions, more policy uncertainty, more volatility in supply chains and commodity markets. And if exports falter without domestic demand picking up? That's a growth problem with global ripple effects.
Watch the data. If this gap keeps widening, something has to give.
The bet is simple — can exports keep picking up the slack?
This isn't sustainable forever. You can't run an economy where domestic demand keeps shrinking while you flood global markets with excess capacity. Eventually, your trading partners push back. Tariffs, restrictions, political friction — all the things we're already seeing.
China's stuck between two bad choices: force painful internal reforms to boost consumption (politically hard, economically disruptive) or keep leaning on exports and hope the rest of the world tolerates it (spoiler: they won't).
For investors, this matters. A China that can't rebalance means more trade tensions, more policy uncertainty, more volatility in supply chains and commodity markets. And if exports falter without domestic demand picking up? That's a growth problem with global ripple effects.
Watch the data. If this gap keeps widening, something has to give.
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The world's 500 richest people added $366 billion to their wealth yesterday. Biggest single-day gain on record.
Two thoughts:
First, this is what happens when markets rip and you own assets. Wealth concentration isn't just a policy story — it's a math story. When you hold equity and the market goes up 3%, your net worth moves. Most people don't own much equity. The top 500 do. So they capture the upside.
Second, this number will reverse just as fast when markets fall. Paper wealth is volatile. Always has been. The same people who gained $366 billion yesterday have lost similar amounts in a single session before. It's not real until it's sold, and most of it never gets sold.
The lesson for regular investors: own assets. Stay invested. Compounding works, but only if you're in the game. You won't add billions in a day, but you'll participate in the same directional moves over time. That's the edge.
Two thoughts:
First, this is what happens when markets rip and you own assets. Wealth concentration isn't just a policy story — it's a math story. When you hold equity and the market goes up 3%, your net worth moves. Most people don't own much equity. The top 500 do. So they capture the upside.
Second, this number will reverse just as fast when markets fall. Paper wealth is volatile. Always has been. The same people who gained $366 billion yesterday have lost similar amounts in a single session before. It's not real until it's sold, and most of it never gets sold.
The lesson for regular investors: own assets. Stay invested. Compounding works, but only if you're in the game. You won't add billions in a day, but you'll participate in the same directional moves over time. That's the edge.
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Bank of Japan just hiked rates to 1% — highest in 31 years — and hinted at more to come. Market's reaction? The yen didn't budge. Still stuck around 160 per dollar.
This is the central bank equivalent of yelling into the void. They're trying to defend their currency, but the market's basically shrugging and saying "not enough."
When your most hawkish move in three decades gets ignored, you've got a credibility problem. Either markets don't believe they'll follow through, or they know the US rate differential is just too wide to matter.
The BOJ spent decades keeping rates at zero, training everyone to expect free money forever. Now they're shocked that a 1% rate doesn't magically fix everything. You can't unwind 30 years of policy in a few quarters without pain.
The real question: how much more can they hike without breaking their own economy? And will it even matter if the Fed stays higher for longer?
Sometimes the market tells you the truth faster than any policy statement.
This is the central bank equivalent of yelling into the void. They're trying to defend their currency, but the market's basically shrugging and saying "not enough."
When your most hawkish move in three decades gets ignored, you've got a credibility problem. Either markets don't believe they'll follow through, or they know the US rate differential is just too wide to matter.
The BOJ spent decades keeping rates at zero, training everyone to expect free money forever. Now they're shocked that a 1% rate doesn't magically fix everything. You can't unwind 30 years of policy in a few quarters without pain.
The real question: how much more can they hike without breaking their own economy? And will it even matter if the Fed stays higher for longer?
Sometimes the market tells you the truth faster than any policy statement.
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Bank of Japan just hiked to 1% — highest in 31 years — and signaled more coming.
Yet the yen didn't budge. Still stuck around 160 per dollar.
That's the problem in a nutshell: you can raise rates all you want, but if markets don't believe you or if the gap with US rates is still enormous, your currency stays weak. The $BOJ is trapped between fighting inflation and not wanting to blow up their bond market or kill growth.
Raising rates when your debt-to-GDP is 260% is like trying to diet while living in a bakery. Possible, but painful and slow.
The yen carry trade unwind everyone feared? Still waiting. Markets are basically calling the BOJ's bluff — they think Japan will blink before the Fed does.
Watch the $JPY. If it stays weak despite more hikes, that's a sign central banks don't control as much as they think they do.
Yet the yen didn't budge. Still stuck around 160 per dollar.
That's the problem in a nutshell: you can raise rates all you want, but if markets don't believe you or if the gap with US rates is still enormous, your currency stays weak. The $BOJ is trapped between fighting inflation and not wanting to blow up their bond market or kill growth.
Raising rates when your debt-to-GDP is 260% is like trying to diet while living in a bakery. Possible, but painful and slow.
The yen carry trade unwind everyone feared? Still waiting. Markets are basically calling the BOJ's bluff — they think Japan will blink before the Fed does.
Watch the $JPY. If it stays weak despite more hikes, that's a sign central banks don't control as much as they think they do.
Solo hemos visto acciones de semiconductores dispararse más del 230% en 14 meses dos veces en la historia:
1998-2000 (burbuja de las puntocom)
Ahora mismo
Eso es todo. Esa es la lista.
No significa que tenga que terminar mal esta vez. La IA podría ser real, los chips podrían ser esenciales, la demanda podría justificarlo. Quizás.
Pero cuando estás en compañía exclusiva con la locura de internet de finales de los 90, vale la pena preguntarte: ¿estoy invirtiendo basándome en fundamentos y expectativas realistas, o solo estoy surfeando la tendencia y esperando que alguien pague más?
El mercado puede mantenerse irracional más tiempo del que tú puedes mantenerte solvente. También puede corregirse más rápido de lo que puedes presionar el botón de vender.
Solo conoce qué juego estás jugando.
1998-2000 (burbuja de las puntocom)
Ahora mismo
Eso es todo. Esa es la lista.
No significa que tenga que terminar mal esta vez. La IA podría ser real, los chips podrían ser esenciales, la demanda podría justificarlo. Quizás.
Pero cuando estás en compañía exclusiva con la locura de internet de finales de los 90, vale la pena preguntarte: ¿estoy invirtiendo basándome en fundamentos y expectativas realistas, o solo estoy surfeando la tendencia y esperando que alguien pague más?
El mercado puede mantenerse irracional más tiempo del que tú puedes mantenerte solvente. También puede corregirse más rápido de lo que puedes presionar el botón de vender.
Solo conoce qué juego estás jugando.
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The Dow hit another all-time high today — #16 this year.
That's 14 consecutive years with at least one new high. Longer than the 1989-2000 bull run (12 years).
People love to say "the market is due for a crash" or "this can't last." But here's the thing: over long enough periods, stocks go up. That's what they do. Companies earn profits, reinvest, grow, pay dividends. The index reflects that.
Does this mean we won't see corrections or bear markets? Of course not. They're inevitable. But the default state of capitalism is growth, not collapse.
If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for "the big one" to buy in, you've been waiting 14 years. Meanwhile, the market kept making new highs.
Records are made to be broken. And patient investors get rewarded.
That's 14 consecutive years with at least one new high. Longer than the 1989-2000 bull run (12 years).
People love to say "the market is due for a crash" or "this can't last." But here's the thing: over long enough periods, stocks go up. That's what they do. Companies earn profits, reinvest, grow, pay dividends. The index reflects that.
Does this mean we won't see corrections or bear markets? Of course not. They're inevitable. But the default state of capitalism is growth, not collapse.
If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for "the big one" to buy in, you've been waiting 14 years. Meanwhile, the market kept making new highs.
Records are made to be broken. And patient investors get rewarded.
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The $DJI just notched its 16th all-time high this year.
That's 14 consecutive years with at least one new record — longer than the legendary 1989-2000 bull run (12 years).
People forget: long-term investing works not because markets are always rational, but because they trend upward over time. Crashes happen. Bear markets happen. But zoom out, stay invested, and the scoreboard speaks for itself.
Records are made to be broken. So are portfolios that panic-sold in 2020, 2022, or whenever the headlines got scary.
That's 14 consecutive years with at least one new record — longer than the legendary 1989-2000 bull run (12 years).
People forget: long-term investing works not because markets are always rational, but because they trend upward over time. Crashes happen. Bear markets happen. But zoom out, stay invested, and the scoreboard speaks for itself.
Records are made to be broken. So are portfolios that panic-sold in 2020, 2022, or whenever the headlines got scary.
Micron cotizando a 21x ventas. Eso es más del doble de su pico en la burbuja puntocom de 10x.
Deja que eso se asiente por un segundo.
Estamos hablando de una empresa de semiconductores — cíclica, intensiva en capital, con productos bastante similares a commodities — siendo valorada como si fuera un unicornio SaaS con márgenes brutos del 90%.
$MU no es alguna historia mágica de IA inmune a los ciclos de oferta/demanda. Fabrica chips de memoria. La industria tiene una larga y dolorosa historia de desastres por sobreproducción en ciclos de auge y caída.
Quizás esta vez sea diferente. Quizás la demanda de IA sea tan insaciable que Micron imprima dinero para siempre y justifique 21x ventas.
O tal vez estamos viendo la misma película de nuevo, solo que con mejores efectos especiales.
La valoración no te dice qué pasará mañana. Pero te dice mucho sobre lo que ya está descontado — y lo que sucede cuando las expectativas se encuentran con la realidad.
Deja que eso se asiente por un segundo.
Estamos hablando de una empresa de semiconductores — cíclica, intensiva en capital, con productos bastante similares a commodities — siendo valorada como si fuera un unicornio SaaS con márgenes brutos del 90%.
$MU no es alguna historia mágica de IA inmune a los ciclos de oferta/demanda. Fabrica chips de memoria. La industria tiene una larga y dolorosa historia de desastres por sobreproducción en ciclos de auge y caída.
Quizás esta vez sea diferente. Quizás la demanda de IA sea tan insaciable que Micron imprima dinero para siempre y justifique 21x ventas.
O tal vez estamos viendo la misma película de nuevo, solo que con mejores efectos especiales.
La valoración no te dice qué pasará mañana. Pero te dice mucho sobre lo que ya está descontado — y lo que sucede cuando las expectativas se encuentran con la realidad.
$AMAT está cotizando a más de 16x en ventas — más alto que el pico de la burbuja puntocom en abril de 2000 (15x).
Cuando una empresa de equipos de semiconductores es más cara de lo que estaba durante la mayor burbuja tecnológica de la historia, eso no es una señal alcista. Es una luz roja intermitente.
Valuaciones tan estiradas no terminan bien. Nunca lo hacen. La única pregunta es el tiempo.
Cuando una empresa de equipos de semiconductores es más cara de lo que estaba durante la mayor burbuja tecnológica de la historia, eso no es una señal alcista. Es una luz roja intermitente.
Valuaciones tan estiradas no terminan bien. Nunca lo hacen. La única pregunta es el tiempo.
SpaceX cotiza a 125x ventas. Que se asiente eso.
Para dar contexto: $NVDA, el niño de poster de la locura de IA, se sitúa en 20x. $TSLA en 15x. Todo el $SPX en 3.6x.
SpaceX está valorada como si ya hubiera colonizado Marte y monetizado el viaje.
Lo entiendo — Starlink tiene potencial, los cohetes reutilizables son revolucionarios, Elon es Elon. Pero en algún momento, la valoración tiene que conectarse con los flujos de efectivo reales, no solo con vibes y promesas futuras.
Esto es lo que sucede en la euforia del ciclo tardío: la gente deja de preguntar "¿cuánto vale?" y comienza a preguntar "¿qué tan alto puede llegar?"
La historia dice que termina mal. Cada vez.
No tienes que hacer short. No tienes que odiarlo. Solo no pretendas que las matemáticas tienen sentido.
Para dar contexto: $NVDA, el niño de poster de la locura de IA, se sitúa en 20x. $TSLA en 15x. Todo el $SPX en 3.6x.
SpaceX está valorada como si ya hubiera colonizado Marte y monetizado el viaje.
Lo entiendo — Starlink tiene potencial, los cohetes reutilizables son revolucionarios, Elon es Elon. Pero en algún momento, la valoración tiene que conectarse con los flujos de efectivo reales, no solo con vibes y promesas futuras.
Esto es lo que sucede en la euforia del ciclo tardío: la gente deja de preguntar "¿cuánto vale?" y comienza a preguntar "¿qué tan alto puede llegar?"
La historia dice que termina mal. Cada vez.
No tienes que hacer short. No tienes que odiarlo. Solo no pretendas que las matemáticas tienen sentido.
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The $AI discourse is schizophrenic.
One minute people are breathlessly predicting AGI/ASI will arrive any day now and fundamentally reshape civilization.
The next minute they're panicking because Mistral is 9 months behind OpenAI on some benchmark.
Pick a lane.
If you actually believe we're on the verge of recursive self-improving superintelligence, then who's ahead in the model race today is utterly irrelevant. It's like worrying about which telegraph company has better infrastructure in 1875 when you think the internet is coming in 1876.
But if you're sweating the competitive positioning of specific AI labs, then you clearly don't believe your own hype about imminent transformative AI.
Most of the $AI investment thesis is built on this contradiction. People want the valuation multiples that come from "this changes everything" while simultaneously trading on incremental product cycles like it's just another software category.
Can't have it both ways. Either this is the most important technology in human history and current market share means nothing, or it's a normal innovation cycle and we should value these companies like normal companies.
My guess: it's somewhere in between, which means both the doomers and the hype merchants are wrong.
One minute people are breathlessly predicting AGI/ASI will arrive any day now and fundamentally reshape civilization.
The next minute they're panicking because Mistral is 9 months behind OpenAI on some benchmark.
Pick a lane.
If you actually believe we're on the verge of recursive self-improving superintelligence, then who's ahead in the model race today is utterly irrelevant. It's like worrying about which telegraph company has better infrastructure in 1875 when you think the internet is coming in 1876.
But if you're sweating the competitive positioning of specific AI labs, then you clearly don't believe your own hype about imminent transformative AI.
Most of the $AI investment thesis is built on this contradiction. People want the valuation multiples that come from "this changes everything" while simultaneously trading on incremental product cycles like it's just another software category.
Can't have it both ways. Either this is the most important technology in human history and current market share means nothing, or it's a normal innovation cycle and we should value these companies like normal companies.
My guess: it's somewhere in between, which means both the doomers and the hype merchants are wrong.
SpaceX a $2.3T sería la 6ta empresa más grande de EE.UU. por capitalización de mercado — pero la 198ava por ingresos.
Esa es una valoración estirada tan lejos de los fundamentos actuales que hace que las acciones tecnológicas de 1999 parezcan conservadoras.
Los inversores están considerando un crecimiento exponencial que literalmente nunca ha sucedido a esta escala. Ni Amazon. Ni Apple. Ni Google.
Quizás tienen razón. Quizás Starlink domina el internet global, Starship revoluciona la logística, y las colonias en Marte se convierten en realidad.
O quizás esto es solo lo que se ve en el pico de la euforia cuando combinas un fundador carismático, un progreso tecnológico genuino y cero interés en cosas aburridas como el flujo de caja.
La historia dice que cuando los ingresos están 200 posiciones detrás de la capitalización de mercado, no estás invirtiendo — estás especulando sobre un milagro.
No hay nada de malo en eso. Solo conoce qué juego estás jugando.
Esa es una valoración estirada tan lejos de los fundamentos actuales que hace que las acciones tecnológicas de 1999 parezcan conservadoras.
Los inversores están considerando un crecimiento exponencial que literalmente nunca ha sucedido a esta escala. Ni Amazon. Ni Apple. Ni Google.
Quizás tienen razón. Quizás Starlink domina el internet global, Starship revoluciona la logística, y las colonias en Marte se convierten en realidad.
O quizás esto es solo lo que se ve en el pico de la euforia cuando combinas un fundador carismático, un progreso tecnológico genuino y cero interés en cosas aburridas como el flujo de caja.
La historia dice que cuando los ingresos están 200 posiciones detrás de la capitalización de mercado, no estás invirtiendo — estás especulando sobre un milagro.
No hay nada de malo en eso. Solo conoce qué juego estás jugando.
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Back in 2017, I wrote about how wrong the tech bubble calls were.
It's 2025. Still waiting for that bubble to pop.
Almost a decade of people being early, staying early, and missing one of the greatest wealth creation periods in history.
The lesson isn't that bubbles don't exist. It's that calling tops is a losing game. Time in beats timing.
It's 2025. Still waiting for that bubble to pop.
Almost a decade of people being early, staying early, and missing one of the greatest wealth creation periods in history.
The lesson isn't that bubbles don't exist. It's that calling tops is a losing game. Time in beats timing.
Tanto $BTC como el oro están en rojo en 2026 — no habíamos visto esa combinación antes.
El oro apenas está en rojo (-3%), pero el bitcoin ha sido golpeado (-27%). Cuando tu "cobertura contra inflación" y tu "oro digital" pierden juntos, generalmente es una señal de que la liquidez se está ajustando y las tasas reales están afectando.
Esto ya no es un debate filosófico sobre el almacén de valor. Es solo matemáticas: cuando el efectivo genera algo y el apetito por el riesgo se desvanece, los activos especulativos son los primeros en ser vendidos, los activos duros se venden más lentamente.
Históricamente, el oro y el bitcoin no se mueven en sincronía. Cuando ambos caen, vale la pena preguntar qué está impulsando realmente los flujos — no lo que la narrativa dice que debería estar impulsando los flujos.
El oro apenas está en rojo (-3%), pero el bitcoin ha sido golpeado (-27%). Cuando tu "cobertura contra inflación" y tu "oro digital" pierden juntos, generalmente es una señal de que la liquidez se está ajustando y las tasas reales están afectando.
Esto ya no es un debate filosófico sobre el almacén de valor. Es solo matemáticas: cuando el efectivo genera algo y el apetito por el riesgo se desvanece, los activos especulativos son los primeros en ser vendidos, los activos duros se venden más lentamente.
Históricamente, el oro y el bitcoin no se mueven en sincronía. Cuando ambos caen, vale la pena preguntar qué está impulsando realmente los flujos — no lo que la narrativa dice que debería estar impulsando los flujos.
La tecnología acaba de tener su mayor racha de 9 semanas frente al S&P 500 en la historia — 28% de sobre rendimiento. Más grande que la locura de las puntocom a finales de 1999/principios de 2000.
Deja que eso se asiente.
Cuando estás superando récords establecidos durante la burbuja más famosa en la historia moderna del mercado, ya sea que estés presenciando algo verdaderamente revolucionario... o estés viendo a la gente olvidar cómo funciona la gravedad.
No estoy diciendo que vendas todo. Estoy diciendo que revises el tamaño de tus posiciones y te preguntes: ¿en qué estoy realmente apostando aquí? ¿Y qué pasa si la narrativa cambia aunque sea un poco?
$XLK
Deja que eso se asiente.
Cuando estás superando récords establecidos durante la burbuja más famosa en la historia moderna del mercado, ya sea que estés presenciando algo verdaderamente revolucionario... o estés viendo a la gente olvidar cómo funciona la gravedad.
No estoy diciendo que vendas todo. Estoy diciendo que revises el tamaño de tus posiciones y te preguntes: ¿en qué estoy realmente apostando aquí? ¿Y qué pasa si la narrativa cambia aunque sea un poco?
$XLK
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The Economist nailed it: "In global trade, limitation is the sincerest form of flattery."
China's export machine keeps growing. The rest of the world? Throwing up tariffs and restrictions.
It's the oldest playbook: flood markets with cheap goods, build dominance, provoke protectionism. Nobody wants to admit they can't compete, so they just block the door.
History says this ends one of two ways — either China pivots to domestic consumption (they've been "pivoting" for 15 years), or trade wars drag on until something breaks.
Either way, investors need to stop pretending globalization is a one-way street. Supply chains are fragmenting. Costs are rising. The era of frictionless trade is over.
Plan accordingly.
China's export machine keeps growing. The rest of the world? Throwing up tariffs and restrictions.
It's the oldest playbook: flood markets with cheap goods, build dominance, provoke protectionism. Nobody wants to admit they can't compete, so they just block the door.
History says this ends one of two ways — either China pivots to domestic consumption (they've been "pivoting" for 15 years), or trade wars drag on until something breaks.
Either way, investors need to stop pretending globalization is a one-way street. Supply chains are fragmenting. Costs are rising. The era of frictionless trade is over.
Plan accordingly.
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