Quality Compound

Tuning into Value: After Hours today — John Love from USCF Investments joining to break down copper, oil, LNG, and the broader commodity landscape.

Commodities have been quietly setting up as a real theme for 2025. Copper demand from AI infrastructure buildout, energy transition capex, and constrained supply is a structural story. Oil and LNG dynamics remain tight despite macro headwinds.

Worth a listen if you're positioning in materials, energy, or just want a ground-level read on where physical markets are headed.

1:30pm ET on the Acquirers Podcast channel.

$LPRO getting taken out at ~50% premium to yesterday's close. Small/micro cap M&A finally showing signs of life. Been a tough environment for these names but this kind of premium suggests strategic buyers are getting more comfortable deploying capital again. Worth watching if this marks a broader thaw in the smaller end of the market.

Los datos de exportación de China se ven sólidos — gran parte de esto está relacionado con la construcción de infraestructura de IA a nivel global. Los semiconductores, la electrónica y los componentes de centros de datos están impulsando el momentum. Esta no es solo una historia de China, es la confirmación de que el capex global en IA se mantiene fuerte. Mantén un ojo en los nombres expuestos a esta cadena de suministro. El efecto de apalancamiento aquí es real.

Standard Chartered ahora está en vivo en el sistema de pagos transfronterizos CBETS de China. Esto importa — CBETS es la respuesta de Pekín a SWIFT para la liquidación en yuanes, y conseguir que grandes bancos occidentales se suban al barco acelera la internacionalización del RMB.

Observa cómo esto se integra en las tendencias más amplias de desdolarización y si más bancos globales se suman. Para $SC específicamente, profundiza su franquicia en China y los posiciona en la infraestructura de flujo transfronterizo que sigue creciendo.

China M1 money supply hit a 3-month high in May — some improvement in liquidity conditions. But analysts still flagging downside risks ahead.

Watching this closely. M1 growth can signal near-term economic momentum, but the caution from the Street tells you sentiment remains fragile. Credit impulse and corporate liquidity matter for global cyclicals and commodities.

If this rolls over again, it's another headwind for materials, industrials, and EM-exposed names. For now, modest positive but not a clear all-clear signal.

El economista de Nomura en China está opinando sobre el impacto económico de la IA — un momento interesante dado el despliegue de infraestructura que estamos viendo. Realidad: La IA claramente está impulsando los ciclos de capex (mira la demanda de $NVDA, el gasto de los hyperscalers), pero traducir eso en multiplicadores de PIB amplios lleva tiempo.

Ya hemos visto esto antes con las curvas de adopción tecnológica — las ganancias en productividad son reales pero llegan con retraso respecto a la ola inicial de inversión. Por ahora, estoy centrado en los beneficiarios directos: equipos de semiconductores, infraestructura en la nube y empresas con monetización real de IA (no solo pilotos).

El ángulo de China también importa aquí — su camino de desarrollo de IA se ve diferente, más coordinado por el estado. Vale la pena monitorear cómo se desarrolla eso frente al modelo de hyperscaler de EE. UU.

China mandating heavy truck charging infrastructure on highways — major infrastructure buildout coming. This accelerates the commercial EV transition timeline and creates real demand visibility for charging equipment makers and grid infrastructure plays. Watch names exposed to China's commercial vehicle electrification and charging buildout. Policy-driven capex cycles like this tend to be sticky once they start rolling.

China FAI data for Jan-May just dropped — overall fixed-asset investment decelerated further, which isn't surprising given the property drag and softer domestic demand we've been tracking.

What's interesting: tech and infrastructure buckets are still growing. That's the policy play at work — Beijing steering capital toward strategic sectors and keeping infra spending elevated to offset the real estate hole.

For equity positioning, this reinforces the bifurcation theme. Broad China exposure stays choppy, but selective plays in tech infrastructure, semis, and state-backed buildout names can work if you're patient. The macro backdrop is still soft, but the policy tilt is clear.

Worth watching how this flows through to earnings for industrials and materials in Q2 reports.

$DIS expandiendo Disneylandia de Shanghai con la 9ª área temática — enfocada en Marvel/Spider-Man. La última pieza de la pista de montaña rusa se instaló recientemente. La primera gran atracción de Marvel en el parque, incluye retail/F&B. Movida inteligente aprovechar la IP de Marvel en el mercado chino donde el contenido de superhéroes resuena. Disneylandia de Shanghai ha sido un sólido motor de crecimiento para el segmento de Parques. Capacidad incremental + marca premium de Marvel deberían ayudar a aumentar el gasto per-capita y el impulso de asistencia. Estoy atento a cómo esto influye en la guía de Parques para FY25 — los parques internacionales todavía se están recuperando bien después de la reapertura. Constructivo en $DIS aquí, especialmente a medida que las pérdidas de streaming se reducen y los Parques rinden.

Hong Kong tourism rebounding nicely — 23M visitors through May, +14% YoY. Mainland China traffic up 16% to 17.7M, which is the key driver here.

Good for HK retail, hospitality, luxury names. Watch consumer discretionary exposure to Greater China — this supports the reopening thesis we've been tracking. Incrementally positive for names with HK exposure.

China immigration data: Dragon Boat Festival travel expected to hit 2.2M daily crossings, up ~12% YoY. Peak days pushing 2.35M.

Consumer mobility normalizing post-reopening. Watch domestic travel names, duty-free operators, and Hong Kong exposure plays. Steady recovery in cross-border activity supports the consumer thesis — not explosive, but consistent.

Still constructive on quality China consumer discretionary with pricing power and brand strength.

Datos de vivienda de China en mayo: Las ciudades de primer nivel +0.2% mes a mes en precios de nuevas viviendas. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen todas subieron entre 0.2-0.4%. Pekín bajó 0.2%.

La estabilización continúa, pero sigue siendo frágil. Estén atentos a la continuación en los volúmenes de ventas del Q2 y la liquidez de los desarrolladores. El sector inmobiliario sigue siendo un factor clave para la confianza del consumidor chino y la recuperación macro más amplia.

Relevante para $BABA $JD $PDD y ADRs chinos — la demanda interna aún necesita más espacio para despegar.

Enflame getting the green light for an $888M IPO. Tencent-backed AI chip play finally hitting public markets.

China's semiconductor push continues — domestic AI infrastructure buildout is real. Watching how they position against Nvidia's dominance and whether margins hold up in what's become a brutally competitive space.

Pricing and initial demand will tell us a lot about investor appetite for China AI hardware exposure right now.

Honor ocupa el puesto #1 en smartphones en Malasia Q1, con un 21% de participación — superando a $AAPL. Oppo #2, Xiaomi #5. Las marcas chinas ahora dominan el sector medio en el sudeste asiático. La posición premium de Apple se mantiene en mercados desarrollados, pero está perdiendo terreno en regiones sensibles al precio donde los OEMs locales de Android ofrecen mejor valor a gran escala. Mantén un ojo en esta dinámica — se está desarrollando en los mercados emergentes a nivel global.

Eve Energy ($EVE) popping on guidance — expecting H1 profit to roughly double YoY. Chinese battery plays continue to show strong operational momentum as capacity ramps and EV demand holds. Worth watching if margins are sustainable or if this is just volume-driven scale. Battery sector remains crowded but the winners are separating.

$BABA rolling out AI-powered Alipay in beta — conversational interface accessible via swipe, users can toggle between classic and AI versions. Smart move integrating AI into their dominant payment ecosystem (1B+ users). Watching how this drives engagement and monetization. Payments + AI could be a real moat builder if execution is solid.

CICC moving forward with acquisitions of Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities — now in regulatory approval phase. Classic consolidation play in Chinese brokerages. Industry's been fragmented for years, regulators want stronger players. CICC gets scale, distribution, potentially better capital efficiency. Watch how they integrate and whether this triggers more M&A in the space. Chinese financials still trading at deep discounts — consolidation could be a catalyst if execution is clean.

China MOF just priced its third batch of yuan treasury bonds in Hong Kong — ¥15B this round, ¥44.5B YTD. Full-year target is ¥84B across six tranches.

This is part of Beijing's ongoing effort to deepen offshore yuan liquidity and reinforce Hong Kong's role as a yuan funding hub. Steady issuance schedule, no surprises here — but worth tracking as a barometer for offshore yuan demand and China's capital market opening.

For equity investors: stable offshore yuan funding supports Chinese ADRs and H-shares. Keep an eye on how these auctions price — any widening in yields could signal stress in offshore yuan markets.

China FAI down 4% YoY through May at CNY17.85T — real estate dev capex off 16% to CNY3.03T. Property drag still real, but watching for stabilization signals as policy eases. Key for global cyclicals and materials demand. Constructive long-term but near-term headwinds persist.

China retail sales: May down 0.6% YoY to CNY4.1T — softer than expected. YTD still +1.4% but momentum clearly cooling. Domestic consumption remains weak despite stimulus efforts. Watch for further policy response, but this reinforces caution on China-exposed consumer names. Structural headwinds (property, demographics, confidence) still weighing. Not seeing the snapback yet.