XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
9 March 2026 – 13 March 2026
Fundamental Analysis
This week Gold will mainly react to:
• US Dollar Index movement
• US inflation and economic data releases
• Federal Reserve interest rate expectations
• US bond yields direction
• Global geopolitical and risk sentiment
Stronger US Dollar and rising bond yields can pressure Gold.
A weaker Dollar or declining yields can support bullish momentum.
However, we do not trade the news.
We trade confirmed price action at key levels.
Technical Analysis
( Price Action Method)
Timeframe: Daily (New York Close)
Latest Market Structure:
• Overall market still holding bullish higher-timeframe structure
• Strong impulsive rally previously formed a major high
• Price currently moving in consolidation after rejection from the spike high
• Market still respecting key higher-low zones
• No confirmed full bearish structure shift yet
Trend Bias: Bullish while higher lows remain intact
Key Resistance Levels (Price Action Structure)
5100 – 5150
Immediate resistance area formed by recent lower highs.
5450 – 5500
Major spike high and strong supply zone.
A strong daily close above 5500 would confirm continuation of the bullish trend.
Key Support Levels (Price Action Structure)
4850 – 4870
Immediate reaction support zone.
4700 – 4720
Major higher-low protection level.
4450 – 4500
Strong structural demand base.
A daily close below 4700 increases probability of a deeper corrective move.
Loss of 4450 would weaken the overall bullish structure.
Price Action Logic (Course-Based)
• Market remains bullish while higher lows hold.
• Current movement appears to be consolidation within the larger trend.
• Pullbacks into support zones are areas to watch for bullish price action signals such as pin bars, inside bars, or fakey patterns.
• Resistance zones remain areas where sellers may appear until a clear breakout occurs.
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