$BTC
Zooming in on the LTF here, there’s been quite a strong reaction from the lows. The majority of it came from TWAP bidding combined with bottom shorters getting squeezed. Again, this is not uncommon after the FOMC retrace candle. The window is the 10–14th, meaning we can still see deviations above 94K.
As I stated yesterday at 90,800, the 25% partial TP was to secure some profits in the event of a revisit. Now I’m looking for re-adds at 95K–96K and 98K. Invalidation remains the same. I’m not over-risking. However, if the current pump gains momentum, max pain would be sweeping the 94K EQHs again, likely with a bigger squeeze candle.
If that happens, that would be the ideal area for me to add to positions. It would probably also make a lot of people capitulate and chase with high leverage.
Just to clarify, this is my final swing short of this bear cycle. After this, the majority of the drop will have occurred, and I will not be swing shorting the remainder of the cycle. So it’s either invalidation, or we head down to 70K next year and potentially 60K.
#BinanceAlphaAlert
BREAKING: The US Treasury’s budget deficit dropped -52.8% YoY in November, to $173.3 billion, the lowest for this month since 2020.
Excluding the pandemic, this is the lowest reading since November 2017.
This comes as government revenue rose +17.8% YoY, to $740.4 billion, the highest for the first 2 months in history.
At the same time, government expenditures fell -4.4% YoY, to $1.19 trillion, the 2nd-largest November total in history.
However, the deficit for the first 2 months of the FY2026 is now up to $457.6 billion, the 2nd-highest in history.
Deficit spending remains in full-swing.
#USJobsData $BTC
$BTC
So far, we’ve had a solid reaction from the zone. I’m targeting a 50% wick fill, though it may take some time to develop.
I’ve already trimmed 25% of the position as mentioned earlier. This trade is expected to take months to fully play out, so I’m TWAPing in and out of the position and will add back on any deviations.
This allows me to take advantage of short term movements while still staying aligned with my HTF thesis.
I anticipate that sometime between late Q1 and mid-Q2 next year, we’ll see a move back below 70K assuming the market continues to follow the traditional 4-year cycle. On the other hand, if we break away from the 4-year cycle, we’d essentially be trying to predict the unpredictable which is impossible.
#BinanceAlphaAlert
🌟💃 La danse des actifs tokenisés 💃🌟
Dans le monde crypto qui ne cesse d’avancer, les RWA sont là pour tout bouleverser !
En 2025, une croissance à couper le souffle, +260 %, les chiffres se gonflent. 🚀
De 8,6 à 23 milliards, tout s’accélère et #Binance , en leader, n’est jamais en arrière.
BlackRock, Apollo, tous veulent leur part, avec RWUSD, les crédits privés démarrent ! 💸
🎵 Sur la BNB Chain, tout devient possible, de l’or, des obligations, en tokens accessibles.
Et tiens-toi bien : Standard Chartered l’a prédit, 30 000 milliards d’ici 2034, c’est écrit.
Binance ouvre la voie, la finance s’émerveille,
La tokenisation brille, un futur sans pareil.
Alors, prêt(e) à rejoindre cette grande danse ?
Les actifs réels tokenisés, c’est une chance.🌹✨
Douce soirée, Bienveillament ✨️
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
Crypto ETFs are regaining last month’s losses:
Crypto funds posted +$716 million in inflows last week, the 2nd-highest inflow in 6 weeks.
This brings total inflows over the last 2 weeks to +$1.8 billion.
As a result, total AUM jumped +7.9% from the November lows to $180 billion, but remain far below the all-time high of $264 billion.
Overall, Bitcoin ETFs attracted +$352 million, while XRP saw +$245 million and Chainlink posted a record +$52.8 million in inflows, representing 54% of its total AUM.
Meanwhile, short-Bitcoin ETPs saw -$18.7 million in outflows, the highest since March.
Sentiment in crypto is improving.
$BTC #WriteToEarnUpgrade
BITCOIN - PATH A or B?
I've still got my eye on this bear flag.
It's inherently a bearish pattern and it still hasn't broken above the megaphone lower boundary, which also isn't good.
If I had to guess which will happen, I'm going to guess 60% chance it's path B, around mid December.
Target would be $74k-$80k.
Both paths A & B end in a nice relief rally bounce, so hodlers need not worry (if these come to fruitition). Trust me, I'm looking forward to the bullish move up, but I don't want to discount the possibiliity of a move down first, which is what a bull flag says is the most likely outcome.
Lastly, I hope that we just go route A.
See below for zoomed-in view, as well as a diagram of its TA structure.
$BTC #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CryptoRally
BITCOIN'S $2 TRILLION SECRET
No proof-of-work cryptocurrency has ever survived on transaction fees alone.
Bitcoin is about to attempt exactly this.
The numbers:
Transaction fees today: 1% of miner revenue.
Required to maintain security: 100x current levels. Average fee needed: $85 per transaction.
Average fee now: $0.62.
Princeton researchers proved in 2016 that fee-only mining is fundamentally unstable. 382 academic citations. Zero successful refutations. When fees replace subsidies, miners gain profitable strategies to attack rather than protect the network.
The common assumption that cheap nuclear and solar energy will solve this is mathematically false. If energy costs fall 80%, attack costs fall 80%. The security equation remains unchanged. Game theory does not care about electricity prices.
Blockstream's Director of Research calls this "a scary phase change that no other coin has gone through."
Bitcoin Core developer James O'Beirne: "We might have only two halvings left before this becomes a serious issue."
By 2032, block subsidies fall to 25% of current levels. By 2036, to 12.5%.
Every other major proof-of-work chain chose perpetual emission or abandoned proof-of-work entirely. Monero emits forever. Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake.
Only Bitcoin is attempting the unprecedented.
Sixteen years of data show fee revenue stuck at 1-4% regardless of adoption, price, or market conditions. The thesis that fees would naturally rise has had sixteen years to prove itself.
It has not.
The world's most valuable proof-of-work network secures $2 trillion through a mechanism that academic consensus describes as unstable and that no cryptocurrency has ever made work.
This is not prediction. This is mathematics.
The experiment is running. Results arrive by 2032.
$BTC #BTCVSGOLD
.....SUITE 💫💖🌹PENSÉES DU JOUR 🌹💖💫
Voici le glossaire crypto 100% humoristique, simple, pétillant et totalement accessible même pour quelqu’un qui croit encore que “$BTC Bitcoin” est une marque de biscuits 😂
Bear market
➡️ Quand les prix descendent si vite que même ton moral demande un parachute.
Bull run
➡️ Quand tout monte et que tu te prends pour un génie intergalactique de la finance… pendant 48h.
Airdrop
➡️ Quand on te donne des cryptos gratuites.
Oui, GRATUITES.
C’est le seul moment où l’univers te dit : “Tiens, cadeau, va t’acheter une chocolatine.”
Rug pull
➡️ Quand un projet disparaît avec la caisse.
L’équivalent crypto d’un “ghosting”… mais avec ton argent.
Blockchain
➡️ Le grand cahier super sécurisé où on écrit tout.
Impossible d’effacer.
(Comme tes anciens tweets, malheureusement.)
Mining
➡️ Quand des ordinateurs transpirent à ta place pour créer des cryptos.
La seule forme d’esclavage technologique socialement acceptée.
Bloc
➡️ Une page dans le cahier blockchain.
Dans la vraie vie : le chapitre où tu te dis “Pourquoi ça m’arrive encore ?”
Diamond hands
➡️ Quelqu’un qui ne vend jamais.
Même si tout s’écroule.
Même si tout brûle.
Même si sa mère lui dit : “VENDS, J’TE DIS !!!”
HODL
➡️ Façon stylée de dire “je garde”.
Ce mot vient d’une faute de frappe.
Comme quoi, le succès, c’est parfois juste écrire vite en étant un peu stressé.
NFT
➡️ Un truc digital unique.
Comme toi… mais moins compliqué.
Blue chip
➡️ Une crypto sérieuse, stable, mature.
L’opposé de ton ex, donc.
Volatilité
➡️ Quand ça monte et descend plus vite qu’une conversation WhatsApp avec quelqu’un de lunatique.
Liquidité
➡️ Quand tu peux vendre facilement.
Si y’en a pas :
c’est comme vouloir vendre une huître à quelqu’un qui n’aime pas la mer.
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫