Bitcoin ne serait plus une valeur refuge selon Grayscale

$BTC Pretty standard. 3:1 Longs vs shorts ratio + Range Bound. -3% drop since.✔️

When price is down, conviction gets tested. Today’s read: Price weak Leverage still elevated (Paper-to-spot ratio: +36.3% in 30 days) Flows still soft That is short-term pressure, not necessarily long-term damage. In Bitcoin, short-term price is set by marginal forced sellers. Size your position so volatility cannot force you out. Long-term value is set by fixed supply + adoption. Long term thesis is still in tact. $BTC

Kaiko alerte sur un possible point médian après la chute de Bitcoin à 60 000 $

Le Bitcoin peut-il se libérer d’une forte pression vendeuse ?

La rentabilité de XRP devient négative pour la première fois depuis 2022

Bitcoin se comporte une action tech et non comme de l’or numérique

L'Ethereum cale sous 2 050 $ alors que les ours renforcent leur emprise

Le troisième plus grand mineur de Bitcoin vend 4 451 BTC et amorce un pivot vers l’IA

Robinhood lance un testnet public pour sa blockchain Ethereum Layer-2

“Everyone is looking at the same thing.” Who exactly is “everyone”? There’s something important to understand. Moat people throw around the word “everyone” to sound insightful, like they’re outsmarting the crowd by second guessing what “the masses” are doing. In reality, 99% of what gets posted in social media is just noise. Just because a scenario is widely discussed doesn’t automatically make it wrong. TA is TA. And hindsight is a b*tch. This cycle, everyone second guessed the obvious scenario and tried to outplay the market narrative, all of them were wrong. Why? Because they focused more on outsmarting the crowd than reading the chart. Here’s the truth: I don’t care what anyone posts. Never have, never will. I care about my plan, my analysis, my observations. Everything else is background noise. It might come off as arrogant, but it’s not ego, it’s discipline. That’s basic trading fundamentals: stick to your plan. So when you say “everyone is expecting the same thing,” you’re really talking about a tiny fraction of people on social media, probably less than 5% of actual BTC volume. The real size operates quietly. Institutions, funds, advanced algos. they’re watching volume, liquidity, order flow, depth, risk/reward. They’re not scrolling timelines for validation. They don’t care what you think. And neither should you. Avoid the noise. $BTC

Goldman Sachs annonce un investissement crypto de 2,3 milliards de dollars, incluant Bitcoin et XRP

What matters isn’t the print, but how price behaves there (volumes, absorption, failed continuation). Structure > levels. 

I’m not calling an exact price bottom. “Macro bottom” = valuation + liquidity exhaustion , not a magic number. Could price wick into the mid-50s? Possible. Could it hold higher? Also possible. 

Exactly. Self custody is about eliminating counterparty risk. Until coins are on chain, you’re holding a promise not Bitcoin

For a few minutes, yes but luck only works until systems catch up. These things always get unwound

That’s a positioning decision, not an incident-driven one. This was a contained operational error, not a solvency or supply event. Shorts and longs should be based on liquidity, structure, and time horizon not headline shock

Appreciate it.This kind of nuance tends to get lost when people rush to panic headlines

Exactly. An exchange balance is a claim, not the asset itself. On-chain settlement is the only place BTC becomes real. This incident just exposed how thin that abstraction layer can be

In percentage terms, $BTC is nearing its HTF macro bottom. First, they’ll flood the market with FUD and negative headlines while engineering range based capitulation. Only after that can we say... the true bottom is in.

Le fondateur de FTX, Bankman-Fried, demande un nouveau procès et invoque un témoignage de témoin ...

Le PDG de SafeMoon condamné à plus de 8 ans de prison

Le Bitcoin punit les traders avec 250 millions $ de liquidations en 24H

Un tribunal américain inflige la peine maximale à un fugitif absent pour une fraude crypto de 73 ...

MiCA : L’AMF durcit le ton !

Coinbase va lister trois altcoins mercredi : DeepBook, Walrus et RaveDAO obtiennent le trading au...

$44 billion in Bitcoin that never existed just traded on a live exchange for 20 minutes...

That approach works if you respect trend and sizing. Buying into weakness is fine blindly averaging isn’t. The key is where you buy and whether structure stabilizes. Observation > emotion

There’s no “perfect” time only good zones . For accumulation, you want fear, low volume, and price holding higher time-frame support. If VET is still making lower lows, patience matters. Accumulate when sellers are exhausted , not when conviction feels easy

Circle Ventures soutient la plateforme de perpétuels edgeX et prévoit l’arrivée de l’USDC natif s...

L’UE propose une interdiction générale des transactions en crypto avec la Russie dans un tournant...

L’Europe durcit sa position sur les transactions crypto liées à la Russie

let's discuss $WLFI & $USD1 (peace lover's 🕊️🕊️🕊️ )

Probably the most important $BTC chart you are going to see. You saw it here first.

Tether soutient LayerZero Labs après que USDt0 a déplacé 70 milliards $ à travers les blockchains

6 signaux crypto à surveiller pour détecter un crash avant tout le monde

Interactive Brokers s’appuie sur Coinbase Derivatives pour un accès 24h/24 et 7j/7 aux nano-contr...

Gold moved first. Bitcoin now stands at a decisive turning point

Parlons crypto: Psychologie du trader et analyse technique

Le Bitcoin est-il enfin prêt à rebondir ? Ce que disent les signaux

Have you ever lost a lot of money because you had to take a shit and ask jumped your stop loss? Apparently I need to learn about something called OCA ( one cancels the other ). I highly recommend walking after you eat so it digests better and doesn't ruin your day. I made money today but last week is a different story.

Actualiés Ethereum : L’occasion rêvée pour acheter la baisse selon Bitmine

😂 Ahah, les lunettes ont la vie dure ! Mais c'est vrai, les hauts et les bas font partie du jeu, et c'est cool de pouvoir en rire 🤣 ! #LunettesProblématiques #PicsEtDips

Polymarket poursuit le Massachusetts alors que plusieurs États défient les règles des marchés

$BTC recorded an RSI reading of 16 yesterday, the lowest level since November 2018. This is one of the lowest readings in the indicator’s history and firmly places the market in a state of extreme oversold conditions. From a technical perspective, any RSI reading below 30 is considered oversold. Reaching 16, however, signals that selling pressure has reached an abnormally intense level relative to historical market behavior. Back in November 2018, a similar reading coincided with the formation of a long-term price bottom, followed by a sustained bullish trend that lasted for months. That said, it would be a mistake to assume that oversold conditions automatically imply an immediate reversal. Oversold is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom. In aggressive bear markets, the RSI can remain depressed for extended periods especially in an environment of tight monetary policy, rising real interest rates, and capital exiting high-risk assets. A professional reading of the current landscape suggests that the market is in a capitulation phase, not an accumulation phase. Technically, current levels may be suitable for gradual position building by long-term investors, but they are not appropriate for short-term speculation. Historically, such RSI readings have represented excellent long-term investment opportunities for those with a long time horizon and strict risk discipline. An RSI at 16 does not mean a bounce will happen tomorrow, but it does confirm that selling has become excessive and that the greater risk now lies not in disciplined buying, but in emotion-driven decisions under fear. Markets don’t reward those who sell in panic, they reward those who remain patient when certainty disappears.

6 astuces pour toujours acheter à la baisse au bon moment selon Santiment

🗓️ Février 2011 : Le #Bitcoin touche les 1 $ pour la toute première fois. Dites-nous la vérité : qu'est-ce que vous faisiez en 2011 ? 👇

Liquidity, leverage, and positioning are not marketing terms they are the mechanics of how prices move after a coin exists. Birth explains supply. Markets explain price. Confusing the two is exactly how people miss regime shifts.

Markets punish impatience, not just bad assets

I understand the stress that feeling is real. A drawdown doesn’t automatically mean a failed investment, but it does mean risk was higher than expected. What matters now isn’t hope, it’s whether SOL still fits your time horizon and risk tolerance

Math doesn’t make money by itself risk management and execution do . Data doesn’t predict the future, it defines probabilities . Ignoring data doesn’t make markets random, it just makes decisions blind

The One Number That Matters Right Now: 7.9× As a trained oil and gas reserves engineer, I was taught to watch one ratio: reserves ÷ production rate. It tells you how long inventory lasts. $BTC is even stricter than a reservoir. In oil and gas, higher prices can bring on new drilling and add reserves. In Bitcoin, supply is fixed at 21 million. No new discoveries. No reserve revisions. Now apply the same depletion logic: ETF holdings: ~1.3 million BTC New annual issuance: ~164K BTC Coverage ratio: ~7.9× (about 8 years of current new supply) That’s why this number matters the most: it compares demand to supply. If long-duration buyers are absorbing multiple years of new BTC, price doesn’t need a story to reprice it needs time. Yes, the path will be volatile. Yes, OG holders will sell into strength. But game theory says large holders usually distribute gradually (not all at once), while patient institutional flows keep absorbing over repeated rounds. Add the market structure shift: BTC dominance rose from ~38% in 2023 to ~60% today. That is capital concentrating into the highest-conviction asset, not broad exit from crypto. Short-term price can be chaotic. Long-term, if persistent net absorption stays above new supply, clearing pressure remains upward.

Décris ta stratégie d'investissement avec 1 emoji 👇

Seadance 2.0, WLFI 2026 Event, Superbowl Ads, and

SwissBorg ajoute un verrouillage de retrait de 90 jours pour lutter contre les agressions physiques

Malgré le repli du marché, Bernstein confirme son objectif de 150 000 $ pour le Bitcoin en 2026

Le cycle de quatre ans de Bitcoin existe toujours, voici pourquoi

✒️ À LIRE AVEC HUMOUR ET BIENVEILLANCE 💖

$BTC Hidden Edge: Hard to Trade but Powerful to Hold (3/3) People say “you can’t predict Bitcoin.” That’s half true and very bullish. The key metric is the Hurst exponent (H), which measures market memory: H = 0.5 → random walk H > 0.5 → persistence (trends tend to continue) H < 0.5 → mean reversion (moves tend to fade) Bitcoin’s rolling 120-day Hurst has ranged from ~0.36 to ~0.91 in my tests. That means the game keeps changing: trend regime, chop regime, near-random regime. I tested momentum, mean-reversion, and random strategies across 2,000+ days: Momentum hit rate: 52–55% Mean reversion: 45–48% Random: ~50% Short-term edge is thin and unstable. Most people are trying to force consistency in a regime-shifting market. Zoom out. Across ~17 years, Bitcoin’s long-run power-law fit is around R² ≈ 0.96 (in-sample). That does not mean perfect day-to-day prediction. It means the long-horizon structure has been strong. With full-sample Hurst around ~0.57–0.61, the picture is consistent: persistence dominates over longer windows. What the data suggests on horizon (approximate): • <3 months: mostly regime noise • 3–12 months: mixed, path-dependent • 12–18+ months: trend signal starts to dominate • Multi-year (3+ years): strongest structural predictability The same math that makes short-term trading hard is the math that statistically supports long-term holding. (This is how my predictions are made)

Here are the details again (2/3) $BTC -$54K Mispricing | 1-Year Model Path: ~$161K (+133%) Spot: ~$69K Power-law fair value: ~$123K Gap: -$54K (-44%, Z = -0.82, statistically very attractive) Math: At an 18-month horizon, this Z-score explains about 55–62% of the variation in future returns (R²=0.555 with overlapping windows; R²=0.617 with non-overlapping windows; n=9 independent periods). Means: Historically, more than half of the difference in 18-month outcomes lines up with how far Bitcoin started above or below its long-term trend. If mean reversion follows the historical half-life (~133 days), most of the gap closes over the next year, with a modeled path near ~$161K by 12 months. Short-term flows can stay noisy. Long-term reversion math remains bullish.

For those wondering how?! (1/3) $BTC has low short-term predictability and high long-term predictability. At short horizons, models are mostly noise (R² ≈ 0.05–0.15). At long horizons, trend structure dominates (R² ≈ 0.96).

le modèle donne une zone autour de ~150–165k$ à horizon 12–18 mois , si la réversion vers la tendance long terme se fait comme historiquement.Ce n’est pas un timing précis , ni une garantie. À court terme, les flux peuvent rester volatils. mais avant il va y avoir une chute

Bitget supprime les frais maker sur les perpétuels actions et les ramène à zéro

百亿学宫:KOL主播孵化、解币、戒爆、币圈的稷下学宫柏拉图学院黄埔保定军校……