BITCOIN'S DIRTY SECRET: THE HALVING NEVER MATTERED
After 16 years and 4 halvings, the data is finally conclusive.
Every single post-halving rally in Bitcoin history coincided with major central bank liquidity events. Not one can be isolated.
- 2012 halving: Cyprus banking crisis.
- 2016 halving: Post-QE environment, ICO boom.
- 2020 halving: Fed balance sheet doubled to $9 trillion. - 2024 halving: ETFs front-ran it. Price peaked BEFORE the event.
The correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 money supply: 0.94.
The correlation between halvings and price with only 4 data points: statistically meaningless.
August 2024 proved everything.
Bank of Japan raised rates 0.15%.
Bitcoin crashed 25% in 72 hours.
One billion dollars liquidated.
300,000 traders wiped out.
That was not a halving. That was liquidity.
But here is what nobody is discussing.
Transaction fees represent 1 to 4 percent of miner revenue. The block subsidy funds 96 percent of network security. Every halving cuts that subsidy in half.
Princeton University research conclusion: "No proof-of-work currency has ever operated solely on transaction fees."
Satoshi himself hedged: "There will PROBABLY always be nodes willing to process transactions."
Probably.
We are 95 percent through Bitcoin's issuance schedule. 29 halvings remain. The people who will witness the 20th halving have not been born.
The halving provides scarcity.
Liquidity provides price.
The fee transition remains completely unresolved.
US debt: $38 trillion.
Fed ended QT: December 1, 2025.
Gold all-time high: $4,371.
The next liquidity wave is coming. Watch the central banks. Not the block height.
The four-year cycle is dead.
The monetary experiment continues.
The existential question remains unanswered.
This is not bearish. This is not bullish.
This is what the evidence actually shows.
$BTC
💫 💖🌹 À Dubaï, CZ et Peter Schiff se sont retrouvés sur scène pour un débat hyper chaleureux (même s’ils ne sont pas d’accord sur tout, ils se sont fait un câlin à la fin, vrai de vrai 🥰).
Le sujet « ❤️ Bitcoin ou ❤️ Or : lequel protège le mieux nos rêves et notre avenir ? »
- Peter (team OR) a expliqué avec tendresse pourquoi il adore l’or depuis toujours : « C’est beau, c’est lourd, ça brille, ça rassure depuis 5000 ans… »
- @CZ (team $BTC ) a répondu avec le sourire : « L’Or c’est magnifique mais Bitcoin c’est l’or qu’on peut envoyer en 5 minutes, sans camion blindé et sans se demander s’il est vrai. »
Et là, petit moment magique ✨ CZ sort gentiment un vrai lingot d’or et le tend à Peter : « Tu es sûr à 100 % que c’est du vrai ? » Peter le prend, le soupèse, rigole et répond tout mignon : « Ben… en fait non, il faudrait un test, je peux pas savoir comme ça. » CZ (sourire ultra bienveillant) : « Tu vois ? Même toi, le roi de l’or, tu fais confiance. Avec Bitcoin, n’importe qui vérifie en 3 secondes partout dans le monde 🌍 »
Tout le monde a applaudi, ri et s’est fait des câlins mentaux. Personne n’a « gagné » ; ils ont juste montré que les deux peuvent cohabiter dans nos petits cœurs d’investisseurs.
Fin du débat : Respect et sourires.
"Au fond, que l’on préfère l’éclat ancien de l’or ou la modernité lumineuse de Bitcoin, l’essentiel est de construire un avenir où nos choix reflètent nos rêves, nos valeurs et notre bienveillance. Parce qu’après tout, ce n’est pas la matière qui compte mais les liens humains et le respect qui nous unissent. Alors, gold bugs et bitcoiners, continuons à briller ensemble, chacun à notre façon pour illuminer le monde.🌹✨"
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
SPACEX IS ABOUT TO REWRITE THE RULES OF CAPITAL FOREVER
One company. One number. One moment the world will never forget.
$1,500,000,000,000.
Bloomberg just confirmed SpaceX is targeting the largest IPO in human history. Not by a little. By redefining what “large” means.
The mathematics are staggering:
65x revenue. That is not a typo. Boeing trades at 0.7x. Lockheed at 1.5x. SpaceX is demanding a multiple that has never existed in aerospace. Ever.
At $1.5 trillion, Elon Musk’s stake becomes worth $630 billion. One man. More than the GDP of Sweden, Poland, and Belgium combined.
But here is what no one is telling you:
This is not a rocket company going public. This is the privatization of orbital infrastructure. The IPO proceeds will fund space based data centers. Artificial intelligence running above the atmosphere. Beyond the jurisdiction of any nation on Earth.
8.5 million humans already depend on Starlink for internet. By IPO, that number crosses 10 million. A constellation of 7,600 satellites. 65 percent of everything orbiting this planet belongs to one company.
The raise must exceed $29.4 billion to claim the record. At 2 percent float, they hit $30 billion. At 5 percent, they raise $75 billion and shatter every record by a factor of two.
Saudi Aramco took a century to reach $1.7 trillion. SpaceX will attempt it in 24 years.
This is not an investment opportunity. This is the moment capital markets acknowledge that whoever controls orbit controls the 21st century.
The space economy just became the only economy that matters.
Watch the S1 filing. Watch the Fed. Watch the sky.
Everything changes in 2026.
$BTC
Everyone is asking: are you on short on $BTC ?
Yes, I am. Like I mentioned yesterday, I wasn’t long... I said I was looking for triggers after sweeps. It was pretty textbook what I was aiming for. Range Deviation.
I usually share my analysis, thought process, and the bigger idea I’m planning around. So once we swept the previous wick high at 94.2K, I started building into my shorts, just like I explained.
Could we see a few more scam wicks tomorrow? Sure. But I’m not worried about being a couple percent off on entries when the play I’m targeting is a much larger swing overall.
I’m not closing my short going into FOMC. In fact, I’d actually prefer to add more if we get higher prices. I’ve made my overall plan pretty clear from the start.