đ©TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Congratulations to everyone who followed the plan, both shorts from 120k and 80,500 are printing big and the entire framework from September 2025 has played out with perfection. So what do I expect next?
The Confirmed BlackRock Bottom (CBB):
The final Bitcoin bottom remains what I call the CONFIRMED BLACKROCK BOTTOM (CBB). The region where BlackRock launched its ETF in early 2024, roughly the 40-48k zone, remains my primary target. Bitcoin has not completed its bear market cycle. Stage 4 is finished. Stage 5 has officially begun. The biggest mistake investors are making right now and did in the recent weeks is believing that 60k was the bottom. It wasn't. It's the trapdoor into Stage 5. Every bear market creates a point where people convince themselves the worst is over, only to discover that the most painful phase has not even started yet.
The White Line Support at 60k:
One important short-term observation: the white line support is currently holding at the 60k region. This is a key technical level that has supported price for the entire move since the BlackRock ETF launch. For now, this support is holding, and as long as it does, there is a high probability we see a move back up to the 65-66k region before continuing lower. This is not me betting on this move, this is just an idea to keep in mind. Bitcoin never moves down in a straight line, and at some point the market needs a counter-move to clear liquidity in the other direction. This could very well happen right here at 60k toward 65-66k. The white line will break and thats what i am betting on, but for now it is holding, and that is what we need to respect short-term. None of this affects my trading. I keep holding my shorts from 120k and 80,500, and I do not adjust the position based on short-term fluctuation.
Stage 5 Has Officially Begun:
We are now officially entering Stage 5 of my 6-stage bear market framework, the phase in which the true capitulation should happen. But do not expect the capitulation to happen by next week, or even in the coming few weeks. These moves take time, and my time frame to see the final bottom remains September-October 2026. Expect violent moves below 60k, followed by sharp rallies back above it. Expect brutal short squeezes, painful long liquidations and heavy manipulation in both directions. This phase is designed to inflict maximum pain on both bulls and bears before the final bottom is established. The same people who refused to sell at 100k, 80k and 70k often end up selling at much lower prices because the emotional pressure eventually becomes unbearable.
The Stage 5 Catalyst:
Every major bear market has had a final catalyst. This is the stage where MSTR-type positions come under serious stress, where leveraged players get liquidated, and where large players or even an exchange can collapse. In the previous cycle it was FTX that caused Bitcoin to bottom out. This cycle will likely have its own event that accelerates the final capitulation and catches most participants completely off guard. These moves appear suddenly and destroy positions overnight.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
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