Look at this chart.
Real US home prices index just hit around 300
2006 bubble peak was around 266
That is about 13% ABOVE the 2006 top
And the long term “normal” level is around 155
So housing is sitting near 2x the normal baseline
People keep saying “homes never go down”
2008 proved that was a LIE @Plasma #Plasma
Here is what happened last time
- Home prices: down about 30% from the 2006 peak
- Stocks: down about 57% from the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom
- Unemployment: hit 10%
And it ALWAYS starts the same way
- Buyers step back first
- Listings pile up
- Price cuts spread
- Banks get tighter because the house is the loan backup
Now look at the bigger warning sign
Almost every market is signaling something is BROKEN:
- Yields
- Bonds
- US Treasury
And no one is paying attention
Markets are not pricing it now
But they will
And here's the part nobody wants to talk about
Trump orders $200,000,000,000 in mortgage bond buys to lower mortgage rates
That tells you everything
They already see the pressure
They are trying to hold housing up with a policy lever
THIS IS WHERE IT GETS UGLY
Because once housing rolls over, everything slows
- Spending slows
- Jobs get hit
- Credit gets tight
Then the chain reaction hits markets
- Bonds move first
- Stocks react later
- Crypto gets the violent move first
2026 is not “safe” with housing at a never seen level
It's a setup
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. $XPL
