Bitcoin speaks the language of numbers, are we listening to the message?
We often hear: “Buy strong companies at the 200-week moving average and let them grow.”
But what about Bitcoin?
The attached chart is not just lines and colors.
It’s a roadmap that reveals the behavior of this controversial digital asset over many years.
From a technical perspective,
the 200-week moving average (200-Week EMA) has historically represented Bitcoin’s “line of safety.”
Every time price touched or approached this level as seen in 2019, 2020, and 2022 it marked a foundation for the start of a new bullish cycle.
Today, price is trading well above this level, reflecting strong momentum.
But the real challenge has never been the rise itself it’s sustainability.
Bitcoin has moved beyond being “just a digital currency”
to becoming a barometer of global liquidity
and a hedge against monetary supply inflation.
When price deviates upward like this, temptation increases.
But the difference between a smart investor and a speculator
is the ability to read long-term timeframes
instead of getting lost in the noise of daily volatility.
History doesn’t repeat itself it rhymes.
Bitcoin has repeatedly proven that patience around historical support levels
is key to building wealth,
while chasing tops is a gamble few win.
What’s your next strategy?
Do you see Bitcoin as a store of value,
or merely a speculative asset?
Share your thoughts in the comments
🚨 INSIDERS ARE SELLING
Insiders are dumping shares at a rate we haven’t seen since 2021.
The sell-to-buy ratio has officially reached 4:1.
Nearly 1,000 executives cashed out in a single month.
Look at the last time the ratio hit this level (late 2021).
It happened just before a big drop that brought prices down for everything.
What’s really worrying isn't how much is being sold, but that absolutely no one is willing to buy.
The only reason insiders put their own money in is because they see value.
Today, that confidence is GONE.
They’re using this chance to sell while there are still buyers, protecting their own money.
They know the real numbers, the order books and the margins, that the public can't see.
And they’re choosing cash over equity.
The signal is obvious. They’re expecting a BIG crash.
( its not my opinion I found it on X) what you think?
$BTC
Something interesting is happening with $BTC ...
Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin’s clinical market cycles. Historically, bear markets last about 365 days, and by that metric we’re roughly 1/3 in.
What’s different this time is speed. Price is dropping faster than usual, 1.25x. Since BTC topped in October, earlier than past cycles, it’s reasonable to expect the bottom to arrive earlier too.
My base case: we bottom in August, not Q4. That’s why I’m planning to accumulate between June, August.
Part of this is intuition, but the structure supports it.
Cycles appear to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will increasingly absorb miner and OG selling pressure. When that balance shifts, BTC may start behaving less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle profile.
Based on drawdown math, we’re likely 22–30% from the bottom. Historically, smart money builds spot positions in the -40% to -60% range. I don’t expect a -70% drawdown this cycle.
I think we’re 20% away from the bear market low, with the bottom forming in Q3.
Using the 365-day model, there are 200 days left to a formal bottom. That gives us two paths:
• slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed, or
• a faster dump that ends the bear cycle early
I am betting that we bottom sooner. So I am buying at
69K.
65K.
60K.
55K.
50K.
45K.
Don't cry because its over, smile because it happened.
Note: In regards to massive swing longs, you will know when I am long.