Top 5 macro numbers right now
3.50%â3.75% fed funds target, flat
The Fed held steady on January 28. The biggest macro headwind is no longer tightening further.
Comment: the price of money stopped getting worse.
2.4% CPI inflation, falling
Headline CPI cooled in January.
Comment: inflation is moving in the right direction, even if not fully solved.
4.3% unemployment rate, flat
Unemployment held at 4.3% in January.
Comment: labor is softer, but still intact.
4.9% productivity growth, rising
Q3 nonfarm business productivity surged 4.9%, and unit labor costs fell 1.9%.
Comment: this is the most bullish number in the data. It says the economy can still grow without reigniting labor-cost inflation.
52.4 ISM manufacturing PMI, rising
Manufacturing is back above 50.
Comment: the cyclical side of the economy is stabilizing
Bullish Macro Setup
rates stable, inflation lower, labor intact, cyclicals improving.
$TAO lâĂ©quilibre des mondes en fusion, le yin et le yang dans une danse, Harmonie subtile, source de crĂ©ation, un guide silencieux vers lâillumination.
Un rĂ©seau dâintelligences dĂ©centralisĂ©es oĂč chaque esprit, chaque machine, participe Ă une conscience c
The market just SURPRISED everyone.
In the past 2 hours,
over $1 TRILLION has been wiped out from gold and silver, while nearly $800 BILLION has been added to crypto and the U.S. stock market.
Gold is down 1.78%, wiping out $650 billion in value.
Silver is down 6.82%, wiping out $340 billion.
Nasdaq is up 1.73%, adding $610 billion.
SPX is up 1.08% adding $80 billion.
Russell 2000 is up 1.72%, adding $53 billion.
Bitcoin is up 6.7%, adding $80 billion.
When reality outperforms expectations,
the market often looks for a âtechnical excuseâ to justify profit-taking.
Nvidiaâs ($NVDAon ) roughly 7% decline despite record numbers comes down to one core point:
a drop in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) for the first time in three years.
The market interpreted this decline as a signal of slowing future bookings,
overlooking a simple mechanical reality:
the company has become more efficient at converting backlog into immediate revenue instead of leaving it sitting in the queue.
When weâre talking about a company growing revenue by 68% with operating margins reaching 65%,
the disconnect between price action and fundamentals becomes little more than temporary ânoise.â
Markets sometimes misread execution speed as fading momentum,
when in fact the engine is running at full capacity.
The smart investor distinguishes between âdemand slowdownâ
and âcash flow velocity.â
Whatâs your view
do you see this pullback as an opportunity to build new positions,
or the beginning of a deeper correction?