$BTC menyelesaikan bulan Oktober «merah» pertama dalam tujuh tahun: bulan ditutup di bawah angka $114 000, menunjukkan penurunan sekitar 3%. Rangkaian enam bulan Oktober «hijau» berturut-turut terputus, dan sekarang para investor berusaha memahami mengapa pasar tidak tumbuh, meskipun kondisi makro terlihat menguntungkan.
Why October ended in the negative
The Federal Reserve of the United States has lowered the key rate and announced the end of the quantitative tightening course – a formal signal to start a new cycle of easing and liquidity influx. But instead of a rally, markets went negative: Bitcoin depreciated, and stock indices also closed the month in the red zone. Several factors overlapped this.
Cautious comments from Jerome Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve has indicated that further rate cuts in December are not a foregone conclusion – there are disagreements within the regulator, and the labor market is sending signals of a slowdown.
Classic 'sell on news'. Many players were waiting for a rapid rise after the rate cut. Not seeing the momentum, investors began to realize profits.
Cooling of institutional interest. The Coinbase Premium indicator, which reflects the activity of American capital, has again gone into negative territory – this indicates a temporary outflow of liquidity from large players.
Geopolitical nervousness. The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reduced the risks of immediate trade escalation but did not alleviate tensions around Taiwan. Additional concern has been added by reports of possible resumption of U.S. nuclear tests.
Why this is not a break of the bullish cycle
Coin22 analyst believes that what is happening is not a crash but a phase of reassessment of expectations. The market overheated on positive news and is now going through a cooling stage.
Large market participants are not exiting Bitcoin but are taking a wait-and-see position, waiting for clearer signals to return to active accumulation. Historically, periods of apathy and fear often became the best entry points: when most expect a continuation of the decline, the market often turns upward.
Key levels and risks
Important support zone – the area of $113,000, which corresponds to the average purchase price of short-term holders. Losing this level increases the chances of a deeper correction in the area of $88,000 – this will be a painful but not yet critical drop within the upward cycle.
Current metrics show: short-term investors are realizing losses, while long-term players are starting to partially unload positions. This is slowing down growth, but it does not seem like a mass capitulation.
Macroeconomic environment and potential continuation of the trend
The situation in the market resembles the autumn of 2023: a similar macro context, the completion of the tightening cycle, a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China, and expectations of softer monetary policy. Historically, the fourth quarter is one of the strongest periods for Bitcoin: the average growth during these months exceeds 40%. Even after weak Octobers, the asset often recovers from declines.
According to Coin22, the current 'red' October is more of a pause than a trend reversal. It sees prerequisites for a new impulse in November–December against the backdrop of:
beginning of the easing of Fed policy;
improvement of global liquidity;
recovery of the American stock market;
traditionally strong seasonality at the end of the year.
How investors should behave
The market is currently stuck between phases of panic and recovery. Volatility has decreased, the level of fear is gradually subsiding, and the structure of the chart is forming higher lows – this is a characteristic sign of a stable upward trend.
Coin22 recommends maintaining composure, using corrections for gradual accumulation, and not trying to catch the 'perfect bottom': the market most often grows when the majority is skeptical.
According to the blogger, now is the time for patience. Large capital is not fleeing from Bitcoin but waiting. As soon as liquidity begins to return, the market may receive a strong bullish impulse again.
Conclusion: the 'red' October indicates a cooling of the cycle, not its completion. The market has shed excessive optimism and is preparing for the next wave of growth, which, according to Coin22, may well start as early as November.
