As 2025 draws to a close, the financial landscape is being redefined by a historic surge in precious metals, with gold shattering all-time highs while Bitcoin remains conspicuously absent from the year-end rally. Quantitative firm 10x Research has issued a high-conviction buy signal for gold, identifying a setup with a 90% historical hit rate that targets a move to $4,830 within the next three months. Driven by a combination of Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold is currently outshining digital assets as the preferred safe haven this holiday season.
I. A New Era for the "Yellow Metal"
Gold’s ascent to a record $4,459.60 per ounce represents a staggering 67% year-to-date gain, its strongest performance since 1979:
Macro Tailwinds: The rally is fueled by expectations of two Fed rate cuts in 2026 and a weakening US Dollar. Geopolitical flashpoints—including US-Venezuela oil blockades and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian shadow fleets—have further intensified the flight to safety.
Institutional Demand: Unlike previous cycles, this rally is supported by structural forces. Central banks, corporate treasuries, and even stablecoin issuers like Tether are increasingly using gold as a reserve asset, creating a more resilient and diverse capital base.
Precious Metal Complex: Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are also joining the surge. Platinum has broken above $2,000 for the first time since 2008, gaining roughly 124% this year due to supply dislocations and robust Chinese demand.
II. The 10x Research Buy Signal: 90% Confidence
10x Research’s quantitative model has flagged gold with its highest reading in years:
The Setup: The model identifies a price range pattern that has historically delivered a median return of +7.8% over the following three months. Of the last ten occurrences, nine resulted in positive returns.
Trading Parameters: Based on current prices near $4,480, the firm sets a target of $4,830 with a relatively tight stop-loss at $4,393 (representing just 2% downside risk).
Portfolio Allocation: Reflecting elevated confidence, the firm suggests a substantial allocation—up to 51.3% of a portfolio—to this trade, emphasizing that the rally lacks speculative excess and is built on firm macro foundations.
III. Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Missing "Santa Rally"
The divergence between traditional and digital safe havens is a defining narrative for late 2025. While gold and silver celebrate new highs, Bitcoin remains stagnant at roughly $88,500, down 21% from its September peak. The lack of holiday liquidity has left the crypto market without a clear directional bias, allowing gold to capture the global "safe-haven bid." If 10x Research's projections hold, the first quarter of 2026 will see gold continue its record-breaking climb toward $4,830, leaving Bitcoin bulls to wait for fresh catalysts in the new year.
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary and quantitative research. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, commodity, or cryptocurrency. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are subject to high volatility and macro-economic shifts. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
