burakkesmeci

$BTC US Sell-Side Pressure Persists, EPD at -0.043 EPD (Exchange Price Delta) is essentially the price gap between U.S. exchanges and the rest, meaning it measures the appetite of American institutions and whales. In 2026 almost the entire chart is red, meaning demand on the U.S. side has been weak since January and sell-side pressure dominates. The one strong exception was the green cluster in early April, when U.S. institutions turned buyers and carried price from 62K to 82K. But in May the EPD flipped back to red, the American side turned seller, and price slammed back down to 62K. Conclusion. U.S. demand leads price in this metric, and right now EPD is still negative at -0.043. It is recovering off the bottom but has not turned green yet, meaning U.S. institutions have not flipped back to buyers. This bounce at 64.4K has no domestic demand confirmation, and for a lasting reversal we need to see EPD push above zero. Thank you for reading. #BTC Price Analysis# #bitcoin #btc #BTC Correction Incoming?#

If $BTC BTC Breaks $53,551, What Happens?

It happened 3 times in history — each time, it dropped more than 30%.

If You Want to See BTC's Real Bottom, Look at Realized Price.

What Is Realized Price?

Realized Price is the average price at which every BTC on-chain last changed hands. Think of it as the market's average cost basis. When BTC falls below this level, the majority of the market goes underwater. Panic selling begins, weak hands capitulate, and real buyers step in.
In the last 8 years, this happened exactly 3 times.

3 Historical Periods

2018-2019 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 133 days. BTC dropped 33.3% below Realized Price.
2022-2023 Bear Market: RP stayed broken for 210 days. BTC dropped 28.2% below Realized Price.
2020 Covid Crash: Only 7 days. A 4.4% deviation, followed by a fast recovery.

The common thread: selling pressure continued as long as BTC stayed below RP — and once it reclaimed it, a strong rally followed every single time.

Where We Stand Today

BTC is at $61,255. Realized Price is at $53,551. We're only 14.4% above RP.

It takes just a 12.6% drop to reach it. If RP breaks, what does history say?

Best case, BTC briefly tests around $51,000 and recovers quickly. Based on the average of all three historical RP breakdowns, a ~22% deviation below RP puts the target around $41,800.
These aren't predictions. They're calculations based on historical RP deviation averages.
When investing in Bitcoin, always watch Realized Price. If $53,551 breaks, come back and read this analysis again.

Have you ever used Realized Price as a risk indicator this way? (Genuine answers in the comments welcome.)

Thanks for reading — if you found this useful, share it with 1 friend. #Bitcoin #BTC #BTC Correction Incoming?#

$BTC fell below the SMA50, its short-term support level, and seller pressure intensified. A strengthening move toward the POC level is now underway. FRVP POC target: 69.8K. #Bitcoin

$BTC Kluster Biaya Jangka Pendek Sedang Naik: Jika 88K Ditembus, Ceritanya Berubah Melihat kluster biaya pemegang jangka pendek melalui metrik UTXO Age Bands Bitcoin, perkembangan penting sedang terjadi. Basis biaya kelompok 1-4 minggu telah naik dari 67K menjadi 76K. Kluster ini mulai melampaui yang berikutnya (1-3 bulan → 68K). Anda bisa menyebutnya sebagai golden cross kecil namun bermakna. Mengapa ini penting? Karena pemegang jangka pendek adalah mesin momentum pasar. Ketika kelompok ini dalam kerugian, mereka menciptakan tekanan jual. Ketika mereka mulai profit, mereka memberikan sinyal pertama perubahan sentimen. Kluster biaya yang teratur dari bawah ke atas adalah fondasi dari struktur tren yang sehat. Itulah keselarasan yang mulai terbentuk saat ini. Target berikutnya adalah kluster 3-6 bulan: 88K. Ini adalah resistensi kritis untuk Bitcoin. Jika harga menetap di atas 88K, semua kluster cohort jangka pendek menjadi positif, pemegang jangka pendek masuk ke zona profit, dan mereka mulai bercerita tentang kesuksesan kepada semua orang di sekitar mereka. Itu akan menjadi sinyal nyata dari pembalikan tren. Namun ada penghalang kuat yang harus dilewati terlebih dahulu: 88K. Apakah Anda pikir Bitcoin dapat menembus di atas 88K pada Mei 2026? #Bitcoin #BTC #Analisis Harga BTC#

Jangan terburu-buru. Bitcoin telah merebut kembali Harga Realisasi Pemegang Jangka Pendek (~$79K) — basis biaya para investor yang membeli dalam 155 hari terakhir — tetapi satu penutupan harian di atas level ini tidak cukup untuk menyatakan tren bullish telah dipulihkan. Sejarah menunjukkan bahwa selama fase bear, BTC bisa sementara menerobos RP STH hanya untuk ditolak dan kembali meluncur ke bawah. Sinyal konfirmasi yang nyata adalah dua penutupan mingguan berturut-turut di atas RP STH. Sampai itu terjadi, level ini lebih berfungsi sebagai langit-langit resistensi daripada peluncur. Mendorong? Ya. Tegas? Belum.