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Crypto traders, brace for potential volatility because the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payroll report for November is set to be released later today alongside October retail sales.

The employment data will offer further insight into the extent of cooling in the U.S. labor market, shaping expectations for the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory.

"A weaker-than-expected NFP report could reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is slowing more noticeably, thereby strengthening expectations for more aggressive monetary easing," Linh Tran, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said in an email.

Lower rates mean weak data could revive risk-taking, potentially yielding a bounce in bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market, especially because the pain trade — that's the transaction that is most expensive for participants' current positions — could be on the higher side, given the persistent dour market mood of late.

Heading into the release, due at 8:30 a.m., the digital asset market is holding onto Monday's losses, with total market cap steady around $3 trillion and bitcoin trading near $86,400, down nearly 4% over 24 hours.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) index are both more than 5% lower, and the CoinDesk bitcoin trend indicator (BTI) is suggesting a significant downtrend for the fourth straight day. Volmex's one-day implied volatility index for BTC remains locked in recent ranges of an annualized 40%-60%, indicating the market is not yet seeing outsized moves in the next 24 hours.

BTC has been bogged down by weaker institutional demand for alternative investment vehicles. On Monday, the U.S.-listed spot ETFs registered a net outflow of $357 million, the highest since Nov. 20.

In addition, stablecoin growth has slowed sharply, signaling a pullback in fresh fiat inflows to crypto.

"Even if absolute growth remains respectable, deceleration in stablecoin growth rates points to a less bullish liquidity backdrop for crypto markets than many had anticipated," crypto financial services platform Matrixport said.

The delay in the U.S. crypto market structure bill may be adding to the bearish sentiment.

In traditional markets, the Chinese yuan hit a two-month high of 7.0417 per dollar. Crypto bulls have long associated periods of a weak yuan with increased capital outflows from China into cryptocurrencies. So it's likely a strong yuan has the opposite effect, although there has been little  evidence of direct links between the two assets.

That said, a sustained yuan rally could drag the dollar index (DXY) lower (just as a depreciating yuan is said to boost DXY), creating a tailwind for risky assets, including BTC.

Meanwhile, gold's ascent has stalled, pulling back to $4,277 an ounce from $4,350 on Monday, just shy of the record price of $4,381.48 set on Oct. 20. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains sticky above 4% despite last week's Fed rate cut. Stay alert!

To know US Non Farm Payroll Report _ Nov, 2025 in detail click here 👈

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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#Daybook #volatility #USJobsData #USNonFarmPayrollReport $BTC

The US nonfarm payroll report for November 2025 was released on December 16, 2025, reporting that the economy added 64,000 jobs, a figure above the consensus forecast of 50,000. However, this gain followed a significant downward revision for October, which saw a net loss of 105,000 jobs.

Key Metrics for November 2025
Nonfarm Payrolls: The economy added 64,000 jobs, which was better than the expected 50,000 increase but still points to a cooling labor market, especially considering the revised October decline.
Unemployment Rate: The rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, reaching its highest level since September 2021. The consensus forecast was 4.5%.
Average Hourly Earnings: Wages increased by a modest 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.3% forecast. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%.
Labor Force Participation Rate: This rate ticked up slightly to 62.5%.
Average Workweek: The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.

Industry Breakdown
Job gains were concentrated in specific sectors, while others saw declines: 
Health care added 46,000 jobs.
Construction added 28,000 jobs.
Social assistance added 18,000 jobs.
Federal government employment declined by 6,000 in November, following a larger loss of 162,000 in October due to deferred buyouts.
Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 18,000. 

Revisions to Previous Months
Employment figures for prior months were also revised downwards: 
August was revised down by 22,000, to a loss of 26,000 jobs.
September was revised down by 11,000, to a gain of 108,000 jobs. 
The data for October was not fully collected or reported in some metrics due to a government shutdown. 

Market Reaction and Interpretation
The report presented a mixed picture, confirming a general slowdown in the labor market. While November's job growth exceeded expectations, the broader context of significant prior revisions, rising unemployment, and slowing wage growth suggests increasing labor market slack. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider further interest rate cuts in the new year.

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#usnonfarmpayrollreport $BTC $ETH $BNB

Bitcoin Terjun dari $90,000 saat Saham Menghadapi Badai Sempurna untuk Tinggi Baru
Bulls Bitcoin secara bertahap kehilangan cengkeraman mereka pada dukungan karena rentang perdagangan BTC yang keras kepala menolak untuk bergerak.
$90,000 berada di blok pemotongan untuk memulai minggu, dan penjual terlihat semakin puas saat volatilitas harga BTC menurun hampir nol.
Itu bisa menjadi percikan yang memicu kenaikan jangka pendek, analisis berpendapat, karena blok likuiditas besar di atas membuat $95,000 menjadi target yang menarik.
Apa yang terjadi di luar itu, bagaimanapun, adalah permainan tebak-tebakan. Beberapa melihat bendera banteng yang siap untuk turun, sementara para optimis sudah menolak ide bahwa Bitcoin berada di ambang pasar beruang makro berikutnya.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to almost $90,000, reversing Sunday's drop to trade largely unchanged over 24 hours. The same can be said for the broader market, with both the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes little changed. The only notable winner is the RAIN token, which has added over 6%.

BTC's recovery is consistent with the 0.5% gains in futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and with the continued weak tone in the dollar.

"Price action is compressed. Volatility is present, but conviction is not. This remains a market waiting for a catalyst," Timothy Misir, the head of research at BRN, said in an email.

Catalysts are plenty this week: U.S. retail sales, jobs data, inflation reports and multiple Fed speakers will take center stage, influencing expectations of how quickly the central bank might ease interest rates next year. Plus, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

"Any upside surprise risks reinforcing the 'hawkish cut' narrative, while softer data could reopen the door for risk assets into year-end. For crypto, macro sensitivity remains elevated until clarity emerges," Misir noted.

Market sentiment has turned fearful, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, flipping the pain trade higher. The market's cleaner too, nearly $300 million in leveraged bets were wiped out over 24 hours, mostly longs, according to Coinglass. These factors back price gains.

Bears, however, also have a reasons to feel emboldened. While the MOVE index, which represents the 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, suggests renewed bullishness or a pickup in bond-market turbulence, market swoons usually accompany heightened volatility in Treasury notes.

Coincidentally, Nasdaq's technicals are pointing to an end of the recovery rally from November, and BTC's options market continues to show a bias for puts across multiple timeframes.

In other news, BTC's hash rate, or the computer power dedicated to the blockchain, reportedly fell 8% to 1,200 EH/s. Nano Labs' founder, Kong Jianping, linked the drop to the closure of mining farms in Xinjiang, China.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a wallet and custody investor guide, outlining risks across different custody models and best practices. It warned investors to assess whether custodians rehypothecate assets or commingle assets.

In traditional markets, gold extended gains while some analysts warned that the downside in the Dollar Index looks limited. Stay alert!

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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#Daybook #market #catalyst

TLDR
VeChain (VET) adalah platform blockchain yang berfokus pada perusahaan yang dirancang untuk meningkatkan transparansi, keberlanjutan, dan efisiensi rantai pasokan melalui solusi data yang dapat diverifikasi.
Tujuan: Mengatasi kesenjangan kepercayaan dalam rantai pasokan global dengan melacak keaslian produk dan data siklus hidup.
Teknologi: Menggunakan sistem dua token (VET/VTHO) dan konsensus Proof-of-Authority untuk skala perusahaan.
Ekosistem: Bekerja sama dengan korporasi besar seperti Walmart, BMW, dan DNV untuk kasus penggunaan di dunia nyata.

Pendalaman
Tujuan & Proposisi Nilai

TLDR
Flare (FLR) adalah blockchain Layer 1 yang kompatibel dengan Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) yang dirancang untuk memungkinkan akses terdesentralisasi ke data lintas rantai dan interoperabilitas, memberdayakan pengembang untuk membangun aplikasi yang memanfaatkan informasi dunia nyata dan konektivitas multi-rantai.
Tujuan: Mengatasi kesenjangan aksesibilitas data dalam blockchain dengan menyediakan akses tanpa kepercayaan ke data eksternal dan interoperabilitas lintas rantai.
Teknologi: Menggunakan oracle terdesentralisasi (FTSO) dan protokol seperti FAssets untuk mengintegrasikan aset non-kontrak pintar (misalnya, XRP) ke dalam DeFi.