Raza Trader 110

The Big Report: All You Need to Know:

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

Nothing has changed since last week’s Sunday report, which is why today’s update is kept shorter than usual. Last week, we discussed the two major liquidity clusters in the 97k and 107k regions, and the importance of placing short orders there in case market makers allow price to revisit these zones for a liquidity grab. It’s also worth mentioning that the weekly EMA50 requires a retest, and this aligns perfectly with the first liquidity pool around 99–100k. If we see such a spike in price, it will require significant volatility, something that can easily occur during the FOMC statement on December 10th, just three days from now.

At the moment, the market is giving us three possible scenarios, some with higher probability and some with lower. Trading is a game of probabilities, and if we agree that BTC is in a bear market, then we also agree that new lows will be made from time to time. Does this happen without any bounces or relief pumps? Absolutely not, even during the worst crashes, the market never moves straight down without at least some relief. Our next task is to identify the areas where market makers are most likely to send price before visiting the lower target around the 70k region.

The first probability is that market makers simply play out the current bear flag and send BTC directly to the 70k target. I see this as likely but not as likely as the second scenario, which involves grabbing the liquidity around 97k and simultaneously allowing BTC to retest the weekly EMA50, the most important bull–bear indicator. The perfect trap would be a move above the weekly EMA50. That would create strong bullish sentiment, pushing BTC from 100k toward 107k to grab the next major liquidity pool. This would then allow market makers to build an even larger liquidation cluster on the downside, making it beneficial for them to push prices below 83k and make the “big short” profitable again.

Some may ask: “Why don’t you close your shorts from 115–125k, go long, and then re-short at 97–100k or 107k?” The answer is simple: the market trades in probabilities. In my view, my entries will not be touched for at least the next year. No matter what happens, those shorts will remain deep in profit because the entries were perfect. The probability of hitting the 70k region is extremely high in my opinion the only question is how high the fake pump will go before the next leg down. Will it be down from the current bear flag structure, 97-100k and down? Or will we see a stronger move max till 107k region and continue the downside move? These questions lead to one answer and its that 70k is coming after one of the above mentioned events.

I’m more than happy to keep my 115–125k shorts open and will simply add more between 100–107k if the market gives us the opportunity described above. Overall, the fundamentals are extremely bearish. The confirmed death cross was the biggest red flag the final confirmation many needed. But of course, sentiment shifts with emotions. People will bet their lives on a golden cross but ignore the death cross entirely, simply because their emotions prevent them from facing reality.

As per Calendar we have FOMC on 10th of December on Wednesday, 86% of market expects a rate cut 0.25 while 14% expects no rate cut at all. In the event of rate cut its already priced in, but in the event of no rate cut the markets will answer with strong selling and we will see the continued bear going on.

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