SYED IRFAN ABID BUKHARI

#S&P500
S&P 500 stays mostly flat as Trump rejects Iran’s offer, oil prices climb

- S&P 500 slipped 0.1%
- Nasdaq Composite down 0.2%
- Dow Jones dropped 44 points (or 0.1%)

Oil prices rose after President Trump turned down Iran’s latest peace proposal.

Recession concerns are rapidly decreasing.

Prediction markets now estimate only a 19% chance of a U.S. recession this year, and Goldman Sachs has lowered its recession forecast to 25%, also delaying expected Fed rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to reach new record highs thanks to strong earnings, increased AI investments, and solid economic data. Wall Street now expects a slowdown, but not a recession.

Bitcoin terlihat membosankan di sini.

Risiko sebenarnya adalah kurang terpapar sementara floor terus naik.

Keunggulan Bitcoin adalah Waktu.

Harga spot hari ini: $81,000
Floor hukum kekuatan hari ini, p10: $61,438
Floor tahun-5: $261,163
Node upside tahun-5: $598,514

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Trump Frustrated by Iran’s Push for War Damages

Two regional diplomats say Iran’s demand for war damages is causing frustration for Trump, who rejects using the word “reparations” as it could suggest the U.S. admits defeat.

The diplomats, speaking anonymously due to sensitive negotiations, added that Pakistan is working to mediate a U.S.-Iran deal to end the conflict and continue talks on unresolved matters.

Pakistan’s top officials — Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Army Chief Asim Munir — are in contact with both sides and regional leaders to help maintain the ceasefire, resolve the conflict, and arrange direct talks next week.

The White House has not commented.

CEOs Anticipate Inflation Jump Due to Iran Oil Shock

A Cleveland Fed survey shows business leaders expect inflation to rise, driven by higher energy costs from the Iran conflict.

Key points:
- CEOs now predict 3.7% inflation in the next year (up from 3.1% in Q1, highest in a year)
- They expect company costs to climb 3.5%
- Planned average price increases: 3.3%

Produksi minyak OPEC merosot sebanyak 830.000 barel per hari pada bulan April, mencapai 20,04 juta bpd—terendah dalam lebih dari 20 tahun. Gangguan ekspor akibat konflik Iran dan krisis Selat Hormuz menjadi faktor kunci. Kuwait mengalami penurunan paling tajam setelah sebulan penuh ekspor terhenti, sementara Arab Saudi dan Irak juga mengurangi produksi. UAE meningkatkan output dengan mengirim minyak melalui rute yang menghindari Hormuz, dan Venezuela serta Libya juga meningkatkan produksi. Penurunan keseluruhan ini terjadi meskipun OPEC+ berencana untuk meningkatkan output pada bulan April, karena konflik tersebut menghalangi kuota pasokan yang lebih tinggi.

Iran–US talks are paused until after President Trump meets Chinese President this week, according to a regional source. Any progress is expected to depend on the results of Trump’s visit to Beijing.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be in Delhi for a BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting at the same time, joined by officials from Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who are working behind the scenes with Pakistan mediating.

China remains crucial in maintaining open dialogue, the source noted.

#StraitOfHormuzCrisis
All ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stopped entirely, with no major commercial vessels passing since Thursday, May 7, as reported by Turkey's Anadolu Agency, based on ship tracking data. Tensions could rise into conflict between Iranian forces and the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf if the U.S. interferes with Iranian ships, according to Tasnim.

Iran denies agreeing to remove enriched uranium.

A source close to Iran's negotiators says Western media reports are false and the draft deal does not include any commitment to remove or transfer enriched nuclear material from Iran. Iranian sources reject claims that Tehran agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile.

Trump administration will temporarily lower tariffs on beef imports, permitting more foreign beef at reduced rates, according to sources. This change will impact all beef-exporting countries. Additionally, the administration plans to relax wolf protections and ear tag regulations for U.S. cattle producers.

U.S. Treasury yields rose as Middle East peace talks stalled and markets watched for updates ahead of President Donald Trump's meeting with China's President this week.

- 10-year Treasury yield increased by over 2 basis points to 4.3863%
- 2-year yield climbed 2 basis points to 3.9202%
- 30-year yield up 1 basis point at 4.9648%

*Note: 1 basis point = 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.*

#GrayscaleCardanoETF
INSIGHT⚡️ Aplikasi konversi Grayscale Zcash Trust merupakan upaya serius pertama untuk ETF spot bagi koin privasi, yang berpotensi membuka saluran teratur untuk modal institusional. Ini adalah momen bersejarah bagi seluruh sektor privasi.

Analisis kami: preseden ETF yang sukses di aset lain secara historis telah mendorong arus masuk dan kesadaran yang signifikan. Bullish atau hati-hati dengan hasilnya? 📈 #zcash #zec #etf

Cardano tetap menjadi posisi ketiga terbesar dalam Smart Contract Fund milik Grayscale.

Rebalance Q1 Grayscale menunjukkan ADA di 17.96% per 1 Mei. Halaman fund kini menunjukkan ADA di 18.33% per 7 Mei, hanya di belakang SOL dan ETH.

Bobot yang tepat bisa bergerak seiring dengan harga pasar harian dan perhitungan fund, tapi poin besarnya tetap stabil: ketika Grayscale menyusun eksposur terdiversifikasi ke platform kontrak pintar, Cardano masih menjadi bagian dari grup teratas.

💙 Suka jika kamu percaya ADA masih layak dalam percakapan kontrak pintar institusional.
#Cardano #ADA #GrayscaleInvestments #SmartContracts

#GrayscaleCardanoETF
Grayscale baru saja melakukan rebalancing untuk Q1 2026.

DeFi Fund:
— Keluar: Aerodrome
— Masuk: Ethena

Bobot saat ini:
UNI 35%
AAVE 21%
ONDO 20%
ENA 14%

Alokasi L1:
ETH 30%
SOL 30%
ADA 18%

Sementara kebanyakan orang hanya fokus pada Bitcoin...

Modal berputar di seluruh stack:
DeFi, RWAs, infrastruktur stablecoin, L1s.

Posisi memberi cerita.

#DeFi #Grayscale #crypto

#GrayscaleCardanoETF
Manajer aset Grayscale telah mengambil langkah signifikan untuk menawarkan ETF Cardano (ADA) berbasis spot, mengajukan permohonan untuk mengubah Cardano Trust yang ada menjadi ETF yang sepenuhnya diatur. #ADA #CardanoETF #CryptoRegulation #Grayscale #spotetf

🚨 DUNIA BERPUTAR MELALUI 8 SELAT

Trading, Minyak, LNG, Kekuatan Militer.

Titik-titik kunci:

• Malaka ~25% dari barang dagang global
• Hormuz ~25% dari minyak global, ~⅓ dari LNG
• Singapura ~50% dari perdagangan laut global
• Gibraltar Atlantik ↔ Mediterania
• Bosporus saluran keluar Laut Hitam
• Magellan Atlantik ↔ Pasifik cadangan
• Bering gerbang Arktik
• Bass jalur Australia

Ini adalah titik tekan.

Tutup Hormuz... Minyak melambung.
Ganggu Malaka... Asia membeku.
Blokir Bosporus... Perdagangan Laut Hitam terhenti.

Geopolitik bukanlah hal yang abstrak.

Ini adalah geometri maritim.

#oott #Commodity #trade

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$SIREN melonjak hampir 50% dalam 24 jam saat $1.70 menjadi fokus

Apa yang penting di sini:

- $SIREN berhasil menembus zona resistance $0.83
- Telah merebut kembali level 0.786 Fib di dekat $1.07
- Selama $1.07 bertahan, target jangka menengah berikutnya berada di sekitar $1.70

Pergerakan ini terlihat kuat, tetapi 4H sudah overbought setelah dorongan vertikal, jadi level ini adalah yang perlu dipertahankan oleh para bull sekarang.

$SIREN
#SIREN

Kompresi segitiga besar → ekspansi volatilitas segera ⚡
Upaya breakout terbaru menunjukkan pembeli mulai masuk.
Level kunci = ~$1.25–1.30 → flip = kelanjutan bullish.
Jika breakout bertahan → pergerakan cepat menuju ~$1.6–2.0; penolakan = kembali ke range.
#SIREN #Crypto #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading 📈🔥
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