SYED IRFAN ABID BUKHARI

EIA projects Iran-related oil production shutdowns to peak at 10.8 million bpd in May.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until late June, the EIA estimates crude oil prices would rise by $20 per barrel above current forecasts, which assume a late May reopening.

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SpaceX dan Google ($GOOGL ) sedang merundingkan kemitraan untuk membangun pusat data di luar angkasa.

- Google mempertimbangkan SpaceX untuk meluncurkan pusat data orbital ini, tetapi juga berbicara dengan penyedia peluncuran lainnya.
- Pusat data orbital adalah teknologi yang belum terbukti; Elon Musk melihatnya sebagai langkah besar berikutnya untuk SpaceX.
- Ide ini merupakan bagian kunci dari strategi SpaceX untuk IPO mendatang, yang diperkirakan akan menjadi yang terbesar sepanjang masa.

ikuti, suka, bagikan

Laporan Utang & Kredit Rumah Tangga NY Fed (Q1 2026)

- Tingkat wanprestasi utang secara keseluruhan tetap sebagian besar tidak berubah; 4,8% dari utang mengalami wanprestasi di Q1.
- Total utang rumah tangga stabil di $18,8 triliun, hampir tidak berubah dari Q4 2025.
- Utang kartu kredit turun sebesar $25M menjadi $1,3 triliun.
- Saldo hipotek naik sebesar $21M menjadi $13,2 triliun.
- Utang pinjaman mahasiswa menurun sebesar $6M menjadi $1,7 triliun; tingkat default tetap rendah dan risiko penularan tetap terbatas.
- Lebih sedikit pinjaman mahasiswa yang mengalami wanprestasi serius; puncak default kemungkinan sudah terlewati.
- Utang pinjaman mobil naik sebesar $18M menjadi $1,7 triliun.

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Iran’s Parliament National Security Commission member Ghalroo stated: The US has two demands that are unacceptable for the Islamic Republic: permanently stopping uranium enrichment and transferring enriched uranium to the US (source: Iran International).

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#Copper
Copper jumps above $14,000 per ton, nearing record levels

🟢 Copper reached $14,025 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, close to its historic peak of $14,500.

🟢 The surge is driven by stronger demand from China and potential supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions.

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FED RATE HIKE ODDS JUMP

Prediction markets now see a 53% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates before July 2027, with odds rising sharply in recent sessions.

The next policy window is just 49 days away (June 30), driving increased market activity.

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#S&P500
S&P 500 Falls from Record High After Hot Inflation Data and Tech Stock Decline

The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% on Tuesday, pressured by rising oil prices and an annual consumer price index for April that came in hotter than expected.

- Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%
- Dow Jones slipped 198 points, or 0.4%

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#TRUMP
TRUMP: Kami pasti akan menghentikan ambisi nuklir Iran.

TRUMP: Cina itu kuat, tetapi kekuatan militer kami melampaui mereka.

TRUMP: Ken Griffey adalah pebisnis yang luar biasa.

TRUMP: Iran tidak akan diizinkan memiliki senjata nuklir.

TRUMP: Kami tidak terburu-buru dalam mengambil keputusan tentang Iran.

TRUMP: Pertemuan mendatang dengan Xi akan positif.

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NEW YORK SESSION 🇺🇸

- US30 companies show more positivity
- USNAS100 companies are more negative
- Overall, U.S. sectors are trending negative

Net result: Negative impact on U.S. stocks.

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Coingecko reports a sharp rise in the tokenization of both real and financial assets. U.S. government bonds are at the forefront, with commodities, raw materials, stocks, and ETFs following closely behind.

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#WSJReport
According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has established a secret military base in the Iraqi desert to carry out operations targeting Iran. Previously, Channel 12 cited officials who suggested that a peaceful settlement with Iran is seen as improbable.

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🟥 UAE Gas Mega Plant Hit by Iran Strikes—Full Recovery Not Expected Until 2027

The Habshan gas facility in Abu Dhabi, one of the world’s largest, is operating at about 60% capacity after Iranian strikes in April caused significant damage, according to ADNOC Gas. The plant aims to reach 80% capacity by the end of 2026, with full restoration pushed to 2027. These attacks are part of wider regional tensions affecting Gulf shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz, increasing energy market volatility and prices.

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#USCPI
🔴 CPI COMPONENTS BREAKDOWN

To see why the market is reacting so strongly, let's break down what's behind the 3.8% inflation rate.

Key Points for Traders:
1. Energy Price Surge: The sharp increases in Fuel Oil (+54.3%) and Gasoline (+28.4%) are driving up inflation, mainly due to ongoing Middle East supply concerns.
2. Core Inflation Remains Sticky: Although Used Cars prices have dropped (-2.7%), persistent high costs for Shelter and Transportation are a concern for the Fed.
3. Fed's Challenge: Cutting rates now could let high energy prices push up costs in other areas like food and services.

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#USInflationData
Inflation is now rising faster than wages for the first time in nearly three years. Over the past year, consumer prices increased by 3.8%, but wages only went up 3.6%, causing many Americans to lose purchasing power and face more financial strain.

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#USInflationData
U.S. inflation increased to 3.8% in April, exceeding expectations, mainly due to rising gas prices caused by the Iran war.

Higher energy costs are also pushing up prices for transportation, food, and manufacturing, raising concerns that inflation could become more widespread and hurt consumer spending.

President Trump expressed support for a temporary suspension of the federal gas tax to help drivers, as average gas prices have jumped to around $4.50 per gallon, up from $3.14 a year ago.

➡️ Scenario 3: Cooler Than Expected (CPI y/y < 3.5% or Core < 0.2%)

A "Goldilocks" or dovish surprise—showing the economy is slowing down despite high gas prices.

🕯️ Market Impact:
- USD: Bearish 🔽 (Likely sharp drop as rate cut hopes rise)
- Stocks: Bullish 🔼 (AI and growth stocks could reach new all-time highs)
- Gold: Bullish 🔼 (Weaker dollar supports gold)

🔴 Headline: COOLING DOWN: Surprise CPI miss sinks USD; S&P 500 targets new highs.

➡️ Scenario 2: In Line with Expectations (CPI y/y = 3.7%)

This reflects the "Status Quo," with markets already factoring in higher gas prices.

🕯 Market Impact:

• USD: Neutral or choppy movement
• Stocks: Possible slight relief rally or flat; attention will shift quickly to news on Powell’s successor and upcoming Retail Sales data

🔴 Headline: CPI MEETS EXPECTATIONS: Market calms as energy price surge stays within forecasts.

➡️ Scenario 1: Hotter Than Expected (CPI y/y > 3.7% or Core > 0.3%)

This is the hawkish scenario. Stronger CPI data signals that inflation is becoming persistent, not just energy-driven.

🕯 Market Impact:

• USD: Bullish 🔼 (Strengthens on expectations of prolonged higher interest rates)
• Stocks: Bearish 🔽 (High-growth sectors like Tech/AI could see sharp declines)
• Gold: Bearish 🔽 (Weakens as USD rises, but could attract "safe-haven" flows if geopolitical risks increase)

🔴 Headline: INFLATION HEATWAVE: CPI exceeds forecasts, raising fears of Fed rate hikes. Tech stocks feel the pressure.

MARKET REACTION ⚡️

Markets are tense as Middle East geopolitical tensions drive energy prices higher. Traders are closely monitoring whether this "energy shock" is affecting the broader economy, especially through Core CPI data.

📊 Consensus Estimates
• Core CPI (m/m): 0.3%
• CPI (m/m): 0.6%
• CPI (y/y): 3.7%

⚠️ Key Tip:
Focus on the Core CPI (m/m). The headline CPI is being pushed up by rising oil prices, but the Fed and major investors are watching the Core number (0.3%) to see if underlying inflation is spreading.

🟥 IMPORTANT ALERT 🇺🇸

Only 30 minutes left until major US economic data releases:

- CPI (MoM) (April)
- Core CPI (MoM) (April)
- CPI (YoY) (April)

If results are higher than expected, it's bullish for USD 🔼
If results are lower than expected, it's bearish for USD 🔽