Setelah penjualan besar-besaran baru-baru ini, harga akhirnya mulai stabil di level support HTF yang signifikan.
Pendanaan tetap positif, menunjukkan bahwa trader perp masih sangat condong untuk long meskipun ada koreksi.
Pada saat yang sama, open interest berada di dekat level tertinggi yang pernah kita lihat selama siklus ini, yang berarti jumlah leverage yang signifikan masih ada di pasar.
Perubahan positif satu-satunya adalah bahwa spot telah berhenti menjual secara agresif untuk saat ini.
Selama permintaan spot terus membaik, bounce jangka pendek dari area ini menjadi semakin mungkin.
Pertanyaan utama adalah apakah pembeli spot dapat mempertahankan kendali cukup lama untuk memaksa squeeze yang lebih besar ke atas.
The monthly open played out differently than expected.
Instead of seeing the typical push higher at the start of the month, June has opened with strong downside momentum.
Looking back over the past 10 months, this has only happened twice before. In both cases, BTC went on to correct by at least 25% from the monthly open.
If June follows a similar path, a move into the unswept lows becomes increasingly likely, as a 25% correction from the monthly open would put BTC near the $55k region.
Considering that BTC has now re-entered the previous range and is still in a macro downtrend, a move toward the unswept lows below would not be particularly surprising.
In the end, it was the exact same pattern that played out three separate times throughout this cycle.
Price formed a range where we saw at least 2-3 months of sideways price action before BTC eventually broke above the highs.
This is where buyers got baited into a false breakout before we saw the next larger leg down.
What's interesting is that every deviation above the range highs was followed by a rejection back into the range, completely invalidating the breakout.
We're now seeing the same thing for the third time.
Price failed to hold above the range highs, re-entered the range, and has already started accelerating to the downside.
The previous two deviations both marked the beginning of a much larger correction. So if this pattern continues to play out as it did before, the current selloff may only be the beginning.
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