Catmark

XRP price is just 1% above the base of the three-month rising channel. The silent exit of smart money on May 17 triggers chain downward technical signals.
The last time a similar smart money came out was at the end of April, and XRP lost 7% of its value at that time. Now, whales are on sale and individual investors are still on the seller's side. Perhaps the lower band of the ascension channel has never looked more vulnerable.
Smart Money Out: Triple Drop Signal Opened the Door!
Smart Money Index is an indicator that measures informed investor behavior. It fell below the mark line on May 17. Exactly the same thing happened at the end of April, and XRP had withdrawn by approximately 7% in a few days.
This output coincided with the weakness in moving averages. Looking at the EMA intersection, 20 days of Exponential Moving Average EEMA—touched on a trend indicator—50-day EMA that puts more emphasis on the latest price movement and is preparing to go below.
In the short term, a strong sales-oriented EMA intersection will indicate bearish momentum for the first time in months.
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The third fall signal is the structure itself. XRP has been trading within an ascending channel since February 6. This channel covered every rally and correction in the nearly three-month period. The latest decline, starting from the May 14 summit, pushed the price to the lower band of the channel.
When three consecutive drop signals burn at the bottom of the channel, the breakout stands out as the most likely scenario. If on-chain demand does not come into play and absorb supply, breakage seems inevitable.
Whale Sales Accelerate in XRP: Are Individual Investors Also Participating in the Exit?
On-chain data once again confirms the sale of smart money. The group, which holds 10 million to 100 million XRP units, started purchasing on April 19 with a supply share of 16.81’%, and this rate increased to 17.63% on May 12. However, at this point purchases stopped.
Since the May 12 summit, the same group has reduced its share to 17.37’%. There was no significant purchase during the decline. So the whales took up positions ahead of the rally (the rally ended on May 14) and may now be selling gradually with every rise that can hold on to the canal.
Glassnode's Stock Exchange Net Position Change indicator tracks the daily entry and exit of coins into cryptocurrency exchanges. It has been positive almost uninterruptedly for the last month. This means that many more coins enter the stock markets than the coin released, that is, it is kept ready to be sold.
The 9.14 million XRP inflows recorded on May 17 were the lowest daily stock market inflows since April 24, indicating that selling pressure may ease. However, since the figure is still clearly positive, the individual investor has not yet moved back to the buyer's side.
Unless negative data comes one after the other, the lower band of the channel will remain vulnerable.
XRP has lost 24% of its value since the beginning of the year and 3.5% in the last month; The picture is red in almost all time periods. Whales are on sale, smart money is out, and individual investors are still net sellers. Therefore, the decision point has now become the price chart.
What are the XRP Price Levels That Will Determine the Fate of the Channel?
XRP price for the continuation of the bull channel, it should not remain below the 1.36 dollar level at the daily closing. Currently the price is approximately 1% above this base. In other words, the fate of the channel can be determined with one day's action.
A close below 1.36 dollars would confirm the break and target the next horizontal support, the 1.27 dollar level. A 7’% drop from the current price coincides with this point. The same rate occurred after the sales signal given by the Smart Money Index at the end of April.
In terms of rise, XRP must first regain its 1.48 dollar level in order for possible recoveries to gain strength.
The next resistance is at 1.56 dollars and there is a high probability of serious sales above this point. The upper band of the bull canal is far from this installation for now and is not on the agenda in the short term.
There is a remarkable detail here: Rising channel formations often produce fake breaks before the trend continues. If XRP closes for a net day below the 1.36 dollar level and is accompanied by persistent positive data in the cryptocurrency exchange net position, it is confirmed that the exit of the smart money has indeed negatively affected the channel.
Support of 1.36 dollars distinguishes between the possibility of recovery through the strongly protected channel. If this level is broken, XRP may be reduced by 7’% to the 1.27 dollar band. However, if this base is maintained, we may see a strong recovery movement towards 1.48 dollars.

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