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Bersiaplah untuk sesi seru bareng Binance Academy, langsung di Binance Square 👉 [https://www.binance.com/en/square/profile/binance_indonesian](https://www.binance.com/en/square/profile/binance_indonesian)
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Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 71%, but Bitcoin May Still Drop — Here’s Why
Bitcoin $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
has jumped 8% from its recent lows as market expectations for a December Fed rate cut surged past 71%. Massive exchange outflows and short-term holder capitulation hint at a possible market bottom. However, analysts warn that Bitcoin still faces short-term downside risks, especially if key resistance levels fail.
📌 Key Points
🟢 1. Fed Rate Cut Boosts Market Sentiment
Market odds for a 25 bps Fed rate cut on December 10 now stand at 71%.
Fed is also ending quantitative tightening on December 1 — a strong liquidity boost.
This macro shift generally supports risk assets, including Bitcoin.
🟢 2. On-Chain Signals Show Possible Bottoming
One of the biggest Bitcoin exchange outflow spikes in history — usually bullish.
Swissblock’s Risk-Off indicator is dropping, showing seller exhaustion.
Short-term holders are capitulating (SOPR < 1), often marking early bottom formation.
Long-term holders quietly distributed at the top — typical end-cycle behavior.
🔴 3. But… BTC $BTC Still Faces Downside Risks
Analysts warn Bitcoin may still dip because:
A CME gap from the weekend remains open — historically 95% close within 7 days.
Strong resistance lies at $88,000–$90,000.
If BTC fails to reclaim that zone, price could revisit new monthly lows.
🎯 Final Take
Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization supported by macro shifts and on-chain accumulation. But until BTC flips $88K–$90K, the market remains vulnerable to another leg down.$BTC
#Write2Earn #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTC #BTCRebound90kNext?
Wawasan BTC
BTC naik 2,22% dan mulai bangkit dari tekanan. Minat institusi masih hati-hati, tapi tetap masuk.
Bull Case:
• The Fed beri sinyal rate cut Desember → historisnya bullish buat BTC.
• RSI(6) turun ke 29,48 → jenuh jual, dekat lower BB → peluang rebound.
• Inflow baru $18,81M dalam 1 jam → beli mulai masuk lagi.
Bear Case:
• MACD bearish, histogram -175 → momentum turun belum hilang.
• BTC masih -35% dari ATH → secara historis belum tentu dasar.
• Permintaan institusi melemah + kekhawatiran soal risiko komputasi kuantum.
Sentimen: Campuran.
Ada yang bid di area $80–83K, ada yang nunggu penurunan lebih dalam sebelum masuk.
DYOR & kelola risiko.