january2026

January could become a critical stress test for the crypto market, with multiple events lining up that may increase downside pressure especially for BTC and ETH.
🗓️ January 15: A Key Date for Bitcoin
We’ve already highlighted January 15 as an important date for $BTC . On that day, MSCI will decide on the status of DTA-linked companies, including firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR). Any unfavorable decision could ripple through Bitcoin-linked equities and sentiment 📊.
But BTC isn’t the only asset facing risk.
⚠️ ETH Faces a Unique Structural Risk
Another major event tied to January 15 could negatively impact Ethereum.
BitMine shareholders will vote on approving bonus packages for Tom Lee, and these incentives create a strong short-term buying motive for ETH.
💰 Why This Matters
If the bonus package is approved, Tom Lee receives:
$15M upfront
Additional bonuses tied directly to ETH accumulation targets
Bonus milestones:
⚪ 4% of ETH supply → 500,000 PSU (~$15M)
⚪ 5% of ETH supply → 1,000,000 PSU (~$30M)
BitMine already holds more than 4% of total ETH supply, and Tom Lee has publicly stated that 5% is the primary target 🎯.
📉 What Happens After 5%?
Once that target is reached, it’s logical to expect that:
Aggressive ETH buying slows down
Incentive-driven accumulation ends
Demand drops sharply
Right now, BitMine is essentially the only company buying ETH consistently at large scale — and even that hasn’t been enough to stop ETH from sliding.
If their buying pressure fades:
📉 Demand decreases
📤 Selling pressure remains
⚠️ Risk of a deeper ETH correction increases
🏛️ Macro Risk Adds More Fuel
On top of crypto-specific risks, there’s also a macro threat:
📅 January 1 — The U.S. could once again face a government shutdown, as funding was only temporarily extended until the end of 2025.
That means:
Risk-off sentiment
Liquidity stress
Volatility across crypto and traditional markets
🧠 Bottom Line
Q1 may not be easy.
BTC faces institutional and index-related uncertainty
$ETH risks losing its largest source of buying pressure
Macro conditions remain fragile
📌 The key isn’t panic it’s preparation. Volatility favors those who stay informed, patient, and disciplined.
January could bring pain but it will also bring opportunity for those ready to act. 💡📊#USGDPUpdate #January2026