1. The current bull market bets on the "Altcoin Season" failure review
As of now, the peak total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies in this bull market is approximately $4.38 trillion, which occurred in early October 2025.
Compared to the last bull market: the peak total market capitalization of the last bull market was around $3 trillion.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap increased by approximately $1.38 trillion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.3 trillion (this round $2.5 trillion, last round $1.2 trillion), and the increase in cryptocurrency market cap is basically all attributed to Bitcoin.
At the same time, many ancient high market cap tokens did not exceed their prices from the last bull market, such as DOGE, BCH, LTC. Tokens that were born in the last bull market have seen declines of over 90% in this bull market, such as meme tokens SHIB and PEPE, and application tokens ICP and FIL.
Ancient tokens and last bull market newcomers did not perform well in this bull market. Another reason for this phenomenon is that 30 million new tokens were created between 2023 and 2025, which is ten times the number created between 2018 and 2022. Therefore, even with Bitcoin rising, when the bull market arrives, betting on old altcoins has turned into a failed strategy.
2. How I will do in the future $
What can be foreseen in the future is that the incremental entry into the cryptocurrency market lies in Bitcoin and potential new narratives that may exist. As attention is continuously dispersed and with a lack of sustained narratives, the market cap of old altcoins will never surpass that of Bitcoin. Especially in bear markets, their declines will be even more exaggerated compared to Bitcoin.
Thus, the core idea this year is to go long on Bitcoin while shorting the old market cap altcoins.
Specific operations:
Within 3 months, complete the short position layout of altcoins with the same market cap as Bitcoin currently held, avoiding high-controlled projects and new narratives, and try to cover multiple sectors and a large number of tokens to prevent extreme risks of individual tokens being drastically pulled up. $BTC $ETH
As of now, the peak total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies in this bull market is approximately $4.38 trillion, which occurred in early October 2025.
Compared to the last bull market: the peak total market capitalization of the last bull market was around $3 trillion.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap increased by approximately $1.38 trillion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.3 trillion (this round $2.5 trillion, last round $1.2 trillion), and the increase in cryptocurrency market cap is basically all attributed to Bitcoin.
At the same time, many ancient high market cap tokens did not exceed their prices from the last bull market, such as DOGE, BCH, LTC. Tokens that were born in the last bull market have seen declines of over 90% in this bull market, such as meme tokens SHIB and PEPE, and application tokens ICP and FIL.
Ancient tokens and last bull market newcomers did not perform well in this bull market. Another reason for this phenomenon is that 30 million new tokens were created between 2023 and 2025, which is ten times the number created between 2018 and 2022. Therefore, even with Bitcoin rising, when the bull market arrives, betting on old altcoins has turned into a failed strategy.
2. How I will do in the future $
What can be foreseen in the future is that the incremental entry into the cryptocurrency market lies in Bitcoin and potential new narratives that may exist. As attention is continuously dispersed and with a lack of sustained narratives, the market cap of old altcoins will never surpass that of Bitcoin. Especially in bear markets, their declines will be even more exaggerated compared to Bitcoin.
Thus, the core idea this year is to go long on Bitcoin while shorting the old market cap altcoins.
Specific operations:
Within 3 months, complete the short position layout of altcoins with the same market cap as Bitcoin currently held, avoiding high-controlled projects and new narratives, and try to cover multiple sectors and a large number of tokens to prevent extreme risks of individual tokens being drastically pulled up. $BTC $ETH