The decline in inflation to 2.4% in January signals that quantitative tightening (QT), which momentarily ended on December 1, 2025, has taken effect. However, the market did not react with euphoria, as quantitative easing (QE) did not materialize as expected. Consequently, a cautious stance prevails: investors are de-risking in the U.S. or seeking refuge in Treasuries, with the 10-year yield retreating to 4.08%. This defensive flow has, in part, structurally migrated toward Bitcoin.
This is evidenced by the on-chain indicator Bitcoin: Demand from Accumulator Addresses, which recorded 387.93k BTC accumulated over 30 days—a volume that exceeds the monthly average and confirms the confidence of large-scale holders. During Bear Markets, capital seeks strategic anchoring rather than quick profits. Therefore, we utilize the Indicator When The BTC Is Hedge (WTBIH) to identify whether Bitcoin is currently acting as a hedge.
WHAT THE WTBIH METRICS REVEAL
◾CPI % YoY (2.4%) → Confirms the disinflationary trend, stabilizing the macroeconomic foundation.
◾Treasury Safe-Haven Flow (24) → Still below the Macro Trigger (30). Global institutional "panic" hasn't fully set in yet, but the flow is building.
◾Crypto Spec Index (18.06) → Even while safely below the Spec Limit (40), speculation is returning healthily, without creating "froth" or over-leverage.
◾WTBIH Conviction Level (72.06) → CONVICTION ZONE ACTIVATED. The index has breached the 70-point threshold. Bitcoin is now technically acting as a Hedge, even before the macro-protection flow (30) officially triggers.
CONCLUSION
The WTBIH confirms Bitcoin’s maturity. The CPI decline solidified the asset as a "Digital Treasury." Despite shorts on the downtrend, speculative exhaustion and strong accumulation indicate that investors are locking in value to mitigate risks, waiting for the macro to trigger the definitive global flow.
Note: WTBIH ensures continuity via Crypto Spec (daily), CPI (monthly), and Treasury Flow (biz days).
Written by GugaOnChain
