老A有道
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老A有道
老a有道 公众号。十年币海沉浮，精通道氏理论，缠论，艾略特波浪理论，熟悉江恩理论。深谙各币种板块轮动，提前埋伏起爆点，三轮牛市老韭皇，老Ａ有料，一起翱翔！
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Big Non-Farm is coming soon—will we keep surging, or will “good data” be used to lift the price for a distribution? Has 4000 held steady? Will we go down again to 3930?
In one article, Old A explains it all clearly for you!
Unknowingly, we finished another leg. Last Wednesday at 4370, I reminded everyone to head south. The low went near 3960. And I also told those who were holding positions that they could buy low and sell high around 4370. Then, over three consecutive days, we traded in a tight range around 3960, and once again gave the call to reconnect what everyone had sold off—whether it wasn’t the big bottom, it was still a smaller bottom. I’ll say it directly: from 4370 to 3960 is nearly 400 points—everything was laid out and spread across the move. That’s what capability looks like.
Now the rebound is at 4090—another 130 points! Smart people like you probably already noticed: 4370 and 3960, one is the top and the other is the bottom.
This is the result of ten-year experience, 12 hours a day, watching the market—experience is trained, not just talked about. Most people can only provide “emotional value.” People who can dance with blades—💃—probably only Old A can.
Alright, back to the main point. On the daily timeframe, we’re seeing a “piercing star”/dawn signal—do you get it? Dawn is starting.
Next Thursday we’ll release the Non-Farm data. On Monday and Tuesday there’s no data, so the market will basically drift slightly higher and shake sideways. There’s a possibility that on Monday we’ll test around 4140. Pushing further to above 4220 will be difficult. Some of the wallflowers will likely run away and exit. The chance of a direct pullback to below 3960 is relatively low.
Once ADP data starts on Wednesday, things will gradually get more complicated. Thursday’s data brings higher uncertainty. If there’s a positive surprise, it will play out in line with what we discussed in the previous article—pushing toward a smaller bottom around 4350!
Of course, everything changes every day. Old A will continue to update everyone in real time.
By the way, if you want to know where to catch bids/requests for a buy on Monday, you can comment “168”. If not, I won’t post again. Haha
$XAU
In one article, Old A explains it all clearly for you!
Unknowingly, we finished another leg. Last Wednesday at 4370, I reminded everyone to head south. The low went near 3960. And I also told those who were holding positions that they could buy low and sell high around 4370. Then, over three consecutive days, we traded in a tight range around 3960, and once again gave the call to reconnect what everyone had sold off—whether it wasn’t the big bottom, it was still a smaller bottom. I’ll say it directly: from 4370 to 3960 is nearly 400 points—everything was laid out and spread across the move. That’s what capability looks like.
Now the rebound is at 4090—another 130 points! Smart people like you probably already noticed: 4370 and 3960, one is the top and the other is the bottom.
This is the result of ten-year experience, 12 hours a day, watching the market—experience is trained, not just talked about. Most people can only provide “emotional value.” People who can dance with blades—💃—probably only Old A can.
Alright, back to the main point. On the daily timeframe, we’re seeing a “piercing star”/dawn signal—do you get it? Dawn is starting.
Next Thursday we’ll release the Non-Farm data. On Monday and Tuesday there’s no data, so the market will basically drift slightly higher and shake sideways. There’s a possibility that on Monday we’ll test around 4140. Pushing further to above 4220 will be difficult. Some of the wallflowers will likely run away and exit. The chance of a direct pullback to below 3960 is relatively low.
Once ADP data starts on Wednesday, things will gradually get more complicated. Thursday’s data brings higher uncertainty. If there’s a positive surprise, it will play out in line with what we discussed in the previous article—pushing toward a smaller bottom around 4350!
Of course, everything changes every day. Old A will continue to update everyone in real time.
By the way, if you want to know where to catch bids/requests for a buy on Monday, you can comment “168”. If not, I won’t post again. Haha
$XAU
Double-needle dip-buying sets up a rebound
Brothers, good morning! We’ve been short for a week and eating long for a week. Doesn’t the feeling of a 21 straight-win streak feel great? There’s no need to say more. This week, whatever events should be linked and digested are already out there: the U.S. dollar index pushed higher, expectations for additional rate hikes within the year increased, geopolitical concerns eased—everything that should come has been absorbed. At the very least, from next Monday to Wednesday, there won’t be any major events. Thursday brings the Non-Farm Payrolls data, and then Friday the U.S. stock market is closed.
We keep getting stuck around 58,000 and can’t break down. This part is quite straightforward. Yesterday we also said that if price is around 58,000, it’s the key support zone from the flag-formation period spanning March 2024 to October 2024. The likelihood of breaking down hard from here is relatively low. If you’re looking to rebound from here, it also has a good risk-reward setup. A large amount of positions are distributed here, including the majority of the core chips held by firms led by the so-called strategy team and companies that mainly hold coins. So it’s not that it won’t break—it’s that it needs to be tested back and forth.
Weekend direction is the real direction—this is the truth for anyone trading crypto. No external factors matter; it all comes down to technicals.
On the daily timeframe, a double-needle probes the bottom. The signal suggests you can try to buy the rebound at lower levels.
Go long around 59,500; add near 58,500; target 62,000, with strong momentum toward 63,300.
Add 1,570 on the dips; add 1,530 on the dips further; target 1,640, with strong momentum toward 1,690.
No matter how many times we’ve won, we must keep our original intention. Stay calm and execute. Without accumulating small steps, you can’t reach a thousand miles. Believe in the light, and you’ll be able to see the light!
$BTC
Brothers, good morning! We’ve been short for a week and eating long for a week. Doesn’t the feeling of a 21 straight-win streak feel great? There’s no need to say more. This week, whatever events should be linked and digested are already out there: the U.S. dollar index pushed higher, expectations for additional rate hikes within the year increased, geopolitical concerns eased—everything that should come has been absorbed. At the very least, from next Monday to Wednesday, there won’t be any major events. Thursday brings the Non-Farm Payrolls data, and then Friday the U.S. stock market is closed.
We keep getting stuck around 58,000 and can’t break down. This part is quite straightforward. Yesterday we also said that if price is around 58,000, it’s the key support zone from the flag-formation period spanning March 2024 to October 2024. The likelihood of breaking down hard from here is relatively low. If you’re looking to rebound from here, it also has a good risk-reward setup. A large amount of positions are distributed here, including the majority of the core chips held by firms led by the so-called strategy team and companies that mainly hold coins. So it’s not that it won’t break—it’s that it needs to be tested back and forth.
Weekend direction is the real direction—this is the truth for anyone trading crypto. No external factors matter; it all comes down to technicals.
On the daily timeframe, a double-needle probes the bottom. The signal suggests you can try to buy the rebound at lower levels.
Go long around 59,500; add near 58,500; target 62,000, with strong momentum toward 63,300.
Add 1,570 on the dips; add 1,530 on the dips further; target 1,640, with strong momentum toward 1,690.
No matter how many times we’ve won, we must keep our original intention. Stay calm and execute. Without accumulating small steps, you can’t reach a thousand miles. Believe in the light, and you’ll be able to see the light!
$BTC
Nothing can be solved by a single try. If there is, try it two more times. Sometimes things are actually very simple—the key is to repeat it at the critical point. 60700/180 is the critical point, and a 21-win streak without interruption. How should I put it—it's still okay.
Old A has what it takes: no frequent “bamboo hats” rolls, no late nights, no “single-board” rushes, no “explosive cabin” flips—focus on turning it around. Ten years of coin-market grinding, forging a single sword; today, I ask—how cold is it?
$BTC
Old A has what it takes: no frequent “bamboo hats” rolls, no late nights, no “single-board” rushes, no “explosive cabin” flips—focus on turning it around. Ten years of coin-market grinding, forging a single sword; today, I ask—how cold is it?
$BTC
All data events have been implemented. Will Friday break through 3930 or rebound and hold above 4000? Lao A tells you clearly!
First, the view: the first point—on most Fridays, price tends to sweep up and down, washing both sides. Today Friday has a relatively high probability of doing the same. During the daytime, direction is not as important; it’s at night that matters. Don’t let misleading moves confuse you. For three consecutive days, the viewpoint has been consistent and it’s very close to the bottom. A dip below 3930 and down to 3880 is possible. It can quickly “retrace” and rebound back above 3930. A more稳妥 (safe) level is 3960. No matter what structure it forms, basically it’s the bottom—either a major bottom or a minor bottom. A minor bottom rebounds to 4350; a major bottom is above 4500, around that area. Rome wasn’t built in a day; next week’s market will definitely be bigger than this week’s—no need to bang the drum loudly without purpose! The turning point is when sentiment is extremely pessimistic!
Three positions below: 3960, 3930, 3880
Three positions above: 4045, 4140, 4220
Among the three above, the first point—4045—is especially critical. Only if it can hold, the situation of moving north/up can open.
For those who have accumulated positions and want to do a rebound: it’s still the same idea—around 3930–60 you can participate once. If it dips to 3880 and reaches the area around there, you can participate again.
For intraday participation, do short-long and short-north at two key levels: 4045 and around 3960. Keep a small stop and exchange for room—don’t miss the “right insertion,” don’t stubbornly hold on tight!
Near the bottom, close to the bottom—use the bottom.
Learn from crises, understand crises, and enjoy crises.
$XAU
First, the view: the first point—on most Fridays, price tends to sweep up and down, washing both sides. Today Friday has a relatively high probability of doing the same. During the daytime, direction is not as important; it’s at night that matters. Don’t let misleading moves confuse you. For three consecutive days, the viewpoint has been consistent and it’s very close to the bottom. A dip below 3930 and down to 3880 is possible. It can quickly “retrace” and rebound back above 3930. A more稳妥 (safe) level is 3960. No matter what structure it forms, basically it’s the bottom—either a major bottom or a minor bottom. A minor bottom rebounds to 4350; a major bottom is above 4500, around that area. Rome wasn’t built in a day; next week’s market will definitely be bigger than this week’s—no need to bang the drum loudly without purpose! The turning point is when sentiment is extremely pessimistic!
Three positions below: 3960, 3930, 3880
Three positions above: 4045, 4140, 4220
Among the three above, the first point—4045—is especially critical. Only if it can hold, the situation of moving north/up can open.
For those who have accumulated positions and want to do a rebound: it’s still the same idea—around 3930–60 you can participate once. If it dips to 3880 and reaches the area around there, you can participate again.
For intraday participation, do short-long and short-north at two key levels: 4045 and around 3960. Keep a small stop and exchange for room—don’t miss the “right insertion,” don’t stubbornly hold on tight!
Near the bottom, close to the bottom—use the bottom.
Learn from crises, understand crises, and enjoy crises.
$XAU
In the morning, effortlessly take down another 1000 points in the space; Ethereum takes down 60 points in the space. Keeping up with the changes is also something to be happy about. Trading is nothing more than trading your plan—plan your trades. This week: 19 straight wins. Ten years in the sea of coins and tides—what storm haven’t we seen already?!
Good morning, brothers. After the core PCE data was released yesterday, the gap and the previous figures were basically the same—no major changes. The unemployment claims data came in below expectations, and the bullish effect was obvious. Of course, the drop yesterday directly from around 61,900 down to around 58,000 was the combined result of multiple factors. In this sell-off, Old A also gave an early warning. Similarly, my aunt (Yi Tai) went short from around 1,630 to around 1,530, which also had about 100 points of room.
This week won’t have any major data or events. Today is also the last trading day of the week. Every Friday tends to see choppy price action with both upside and downside “washing.” Of course, today may also be the same. The key focus is next week’s NFP (non-farm payrolls) data—especially the NFP release late on Thursday night—which will directly affect whether the Fed will cut rates.
On the daily chart, price has pulled down into the mid-term support area of the flag pattern consolidation from August last year, around 58,000. A one-time break below here may be difficult. After the pullback that lasted for about half a year last year, this mid-term flag consolidation may involve repeated tests. For the medium to long term, the bearish view targeting 45,000 remains unchanged. The stated range/target (Yi Tai) is around the 900 area.
Intraday plan: after a rebound, continue to go short.
Short around 60,600; add shorts around 61,500. Look for 57,500—if the move is strong, then 53,500.
Short around 1,600; add shorts around 1,650. Look for 1,500—if the move is strong, then 1,450.
This week won’t have any major data or events. Today is also the last trading day of the week. Every Friday tends to see choppy price action with both upside and downside “washing.” Of course, today may also be the same. The key focus is next week’s NFP (non-farm payrolls) data—especially the NFP release late on Thursday night—which will directly affect whether the Fed will cut rates.
On the daily chart, price has pulled down into the mid-term support area of the flag pattern consolidation from August last year, around 58,000. A one-time break below here may be difficult. After the pullback that lasted for about half a year last year, this mid-term flag consolidation may involve repeated tests. For the medium to long term, the bearish view targeting 45,000 remains unchanged. The stated range/target (Yi Tai) is around the 900 area.
Intraday plan: after a rebound, continue to go short.
Short around 60,600; add shorts around 61,500. Look for 57,500—if the move is strong, then 53,500.
Short around 1,600; add shorts around 1,650. Look for 1,500—if the move is strong, then 1,450.
Is it not okay to rebound and short it for a round? Big cake (BTC) drops 1,000 points, and Ethereum 30 bucks—there’s room. This week continues with 17 straight wins. Some things are pretty simple. Find the key resistance level to short, find the key support level to go long. Do simple things repeatedly, and once the account is set up right, it rises. After 10 years of battling in the coin sea, let’s soar together
$BTC
$BTC
Endless, isn't it? Hey fam, isn't the rhythm of the big yellow making you feel this way? It's like a waterfall washing our faces daily. Expectations for rate hikes are strengthening, combined with geopolitical issues and a continuously rising dollar index. Plus, there's talk of a post-SPCX listing dump, leading to weakness in the U.S. tech sector, dragging the Nasdaq down. After three days of this week's sell-off, the safe-haven sector has taken a hit, and precious metals like big yellow have seen significant drops.
Now, about big yellow:
On Wednesday, it was hovering around 4100, dropping to about 3970 with a 130 tick 🍰.
On Wednesday, it closed near 3975 but was forced to sell off around 4000, then bought back some near 3960. The bounce-back strength isn't enough, and it's been oscillating below 4000. I always keep it real with you all regarding any situation.
Currently, the key level below is the 3930 we've been talking about since March. The range from 3930 to 3900 is the last line of defense; if we break below, it could hit 3500. Between that, the near 400 point is almost a one-way street, lacking the strength to hold support, which is not the outcome we want to see.
Right now, the best scenario is forming repeated bounces around 3960. Let's see if we can create a double bottom here.
For day traders looking to short, keep an eye on the resistance around 4020-40.
Whether we break 4000 and close in the 3930 range or continue testing 3930, it’s all part of our plan. Honestly, there’s not much turbulence in my mind now; we’re in the calm before the dawn, believing that light will reveal itself.
$XAU
Now, about big yellow:
On Wednesday, it was hovering around 4100, dropping to about 3970 with a 130 tick 🍰.
On Wednesday, it closed near 3975 but was forced to sell off around 4000, then bought back some near 3960. The bounce-back strength isn't enough, and it's been oscillating below 4000. I always keep it real with you all regarding any situation.
Currently, the key level below is the 3930 we've been talking about since March. The range from 3930 to 3900 is the last line of defense; if we break below, it could hit 3500. Between that, the near 400 point is almost a one-way street, lacking the strength to hold support, which is not the outcome we want to see.
Right now, the best scenario is forming repeated bounces around 3960. Let's see if we can create a double bottom here.
For day traders looking to short, keep an eye on the resistance around 4020-40.
Whether we break 4000 and close in the 3930 range or continue testing 3930, it’s all part of our plan. Honestly, there’s not much turbulence in my mind now; we’re in the calm before the dawn, believing that light will reveal itself.
$XAU
XAU-0.14%
SPCXUS-0.13%
With expectations of interest rate hikes strengthening, coupled with geopolitical issues and the dollar index continuing to rise, the tech sector in the US has weakened, dragging down the NASDAQ. After three days of this situation brewing, it has caused a collapse in the safe-haven sectors. Bitcoin, along with gold and other precious metals, has seen significant declines.
Currently, Bitcoin is back in the main downtrend, and there's not much strategy to employ; any rebound is just a shorting opportunity. The bottom for Bitcoin is expected around November, at about 45000, a point that veteran traders often mention and hasn't changed. Right now, it's still the same.
Short near 61300, add to shorts around 61900, looking at 59000 with strong pressure at 57500.
Short at 1630, add to shorts at 1680, targeting 1535.
Currently, Bitcoin is back in the main downtrend, and there's not much strategy to employ; any rebound is just a shorting opportunity. The bottom for Bitcoin is expected around November, at about 45000, a point that veteran traders often mention and hasn't changed. Right now, it's still the same.
Short near 61300, add to shorts around 61900, looking at 59000 with strong pressure at 57500.
Short at 1630, add to shorts at 1680, targeting 1535.
Today’s all about good news. Bitcoin’s been on a 17-win streak; if it can’t break through, we might short it again for confirmation. What do you guys think, this strategy seems pretty solid, right? I switched between long and short twice today, smooth as ever. Here’s hoping we all make some serious gains again!
$BTC
$BTC
Today is all about good news. Bitcoin has hit 17 consecutive wins, and if it can't break through, it's time to go short and confirm that strategy again. What do you guys think, this setup is looking pretty solid, right? Today I flipped between long and short twice, smooth as ever. I also hope my fellow traders can achieve new heights! #SK海力士拟赴美发行ADR $BTC
The waterfall has hit, what was bound to happen has finally come, and the 3930 everyone’s been talking about isn’t far off. This past few days, the gold strategy has been on fire. In less than two weeks, I've taken 14 big position trades, and now that the waterfall has come down, I'm looking to jump back in and play the rebound.
This lousy market barely moves a dime in a day. The long positions aren't yielding much, and I can't even get into short positions. I mean, I've got a 15-win streak, but today was just frustrating. They say do good deeds and don't ask about the future, so I’ll keep my enthusiasm for trading alive, looking for opportunities in the mundane. If the day doesn't work out, I'll focus on the night!
$BTC
$BTC
老A有道
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The daily chart is still oscillating around the 42500 mark, holding strong. For today, let's stick to our range strategy; the larger oscillation range hasn't changed, and there hasn't been much movement since the US market closed yesterday. We didn't scoop up much with the small gains. Today, there is a solid bottom structure, but the volume is lacking. So, we'll start with a short long position, then go short.
Long around 62500, add more at 62000, targeting 64000 with strong momentum at 65500.
Long near 1660, aiming for 1715, with strong momentum looking at 1770.
Above 64000 and near 1715, if it breaks without momentum, we can short; if it breaks and shows no reversal signs, we cancel the short.
Long around 62500, add more at 62000, targeting 64000 with strong momentum at 65500.
Long near 1660, aiming for 1715, with strong momentum looking at 1770.
Above 64000 and near 1715, if it breaks without momentum, we can short; if it breaks and shows no reversal signs, we cancel the short.
Is anyone updating anymore? It’s not just vague talk; it feels like everyone’s pretending to be asleep, which is a bit harsh on the community. Come rain or shine, Old A is here to keep everyone updated and engaged.
Right now, there are three bullish factors brewing.
1️⃣ The probability of a hawkish rate hike in September is at 76%.
2️⃣ The situation in the Middle East is easing, which lowers the safe-haven demand for gold.
3️⃣ The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 4.23%, and the 10-year yield is holding strong at a high of 4.5%, with the dollar index stabilizing at 101, hitting a nearly one-year high. A strong dollar weakens gold.
One bearish factor remains unchanged; for the medium to long term: central banks are continuing to buy physical gold, so the potential for a deep decline is limited, only temporarily suppressed by liquidity.
So this Monday broke the calm we had before last week’s non-farm payrolls, showing some softening. The low point mentioned yesterday at 4080 has been breached, which indicates that this support is ineffective, making it likely we’ll test around 4020 for liquidity!
Around 4000 is a psychological level for many traders. Actions here could lead to two scenarios: one is a quick dip and a reversal, the other is a continued decline hitting the next support around 3930, followed by a pullback. For those who’ve been stacking, you should have some dry powder now; both scenarios could be good for a dip buy.
For intraday shorting, 4080 to 4100 is already a swap zone; no need to elaborate on that!
$XAU
Right now, there are three bullish factors brewing.
1️⃣ The probability of a hawkish rate hike in September is at 76%.
2️⃣ The situation in the Middle East is easing, which lowers the safe-haven demand for gold.
3️⃣ The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 4.23%, and the 10-year yield is holding strong at a high of 4.5%, with the dollar index stabilizing at 101, hitting a nearly one-year high. A strong dollar weakens gold.
One bearish factor remains unchanged; for the medium to long term: central banks are continuing to buy physical gold, so the potential for a deep decline is limited, only temporarily suppressed by liquidity.
So this Monday broke the calm we had before last week’s non-farm payrolls, showing some softening. The low point mentioned yesterday at 4080 has been breached, which indicates that this support is ineffective, making it likely we’ll test around 4020 for liquidity!
Around 4000 is a psychological level for many traders. Actions here could lead to two scenarios: one is a quick dip and a reversal, the other is a continued decline hitting the next support around 3930, followed by a pullback. For those who’ve been stacking, you should have some dry powder now; both scenarios could be good for a dip buy.
For intraday shorting, 4080 to 4100 is already a swap zone; no need to elaborate on that!
$XAU
The daily chart is still oscillating around the 42500 mark, holding strong. For today, let's stick to our range strategy; the larger oscillation range hasn't changed, and there hasn't been much movement since the US market closed yesterday. We didn't scoop up much with the small gains. Today, there is a solid bottom structure, but the volume is lacking. So, we'll start with a short long position, then go short.
Long around 62500, add more at 62000, targeting 64000 with strong momentum at 65500.
Long near 1660, aiming for 1715, with strong momentum looking at 1770.
Above 64000 and near 1715, if it breaks without momentum, we can short; if it breaks and shows no reversal signs, we cancel the short.
Long around 62500, add more at 62000, targeting 64000 with strong momentum at 65500.
Long near 1660, aiming for 1715, with strong momentum looking at 1770.
Above 64000 and near 1715, if it breaks without momentum, we can short; if it breaks and shows no reversal signs, we cancel the short.
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