#ADA! : The entire market is rising, why is it still dazed on the floor?
In 2026, Bitcoin breaks new highs, $TAO surging 68% in a single month, Sui has a stablecoin flywheel, $FET rising 20% overnight. The entire crypto market is bustling with activity.
Then you take a look at ADA: $0.26.
From the historic high of $3.09 in 2021, it has dropped by 91%. It has fallen more than 60% from the early 2025 high. Even during the days this year when Bitcoin and major altcoins have collectively rebounded, ADA's increase has only closely followed Bitcoin's rise of 0.32% with a rise of 0.37%, showing no independent upward momentum and completely passive following the rise. STCN
This is not a temporary suppression in a bear market; it's a deeper structural issue.
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The most ironic contradiction: technology is advancing, but prices are declining.
Cardano has always had a peculiar contradiction: the network continues to upgrade, the roadmap is steadily advancing, the governance system is online, and the scaling solutions are operational, yet the price remains stagnant. Over the years, the gap between technology and valuation has defined ADA's market reputation. 36Kr
This statement sounds like it's praising ADA, but in reality, it reveals its most fatal flaw—there's no one in the crypto market continuously buying into 'the good things to come.'
Cardano's development philosophy is academically driven, peer-reviewed, and emphasizes slow and careful work. Hoskinson goes live for several hours every few months, spending a lot of time explaining why Cardano is more rigorous than Ethereum and safer than Solana.
Then the DeFi locked volume on Ethereum is dozens of times that of Cardano, and the trading volume on Solana is hundreds of times that of Cardano.
Rigor does not create market value; users and revenue create market value.
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Why is it not positively correlated with the trend? Four fundamental reasons.
First, the DeFi ecosystem is too small to accommodate funds.
Cardano's DeFi ecosystem usage is growing, but it still remains very small by DeFi standards. Sina
Entering 2026, Cardano's TVL stabilizes at around $300 million, slowly rebuilding. 36Kr
300 million dollars. Compared to Solana's tens of billions. Funds flowing into the crypto market will choose the chain with the deepest liquidity, highest returns, and richest ecosystem. Cardano is not in the first tier of this competition, nor even in the second tier.
Second, there is no AI narrative, no RWA narrative, no DePIN narrative.
The three major market hotspots in 2026: AI × Blockchain (TAO, FET), real assets on-chain (ONDO, LINK), decentralized physical infrastructure (RENDER, Akash).
In which narrative does Cardano exist?
Cardano has corporate binding: auditing firm Grant Thornton puts its financial audits on-chain, and 137 Swiss SPAR supermarkets accept ADA payments. Sina These are real implementations, but the narrative heat in the crypto market is approximately zero. No one buys ADA just because supermarkets can accept it for payment.
Third, the token economy lacks a destruction mechanism, leading to long-term supply pressure.
ADA's core limitation is the massive circulating supply and the lack of an effective buyback mechanism. If demand growth doesn't keep pace with the treasury's fund release speed, the token price will only continue to slowly grind down. Ofweek
TAO has a cap of 21 million with a halving mechanism, and the value of each TAO is protected at the design level. What about ADA? The circulating supply has exceeded 35 billion, with no deflationary mechanism and no destruction mechanism. On what basis do holders demand a higher price?
Fourth, Charles Hoskinson is a double-edged sword.
Hoskinson is one of the most articulate people in the crypto space. But he is also one of the most controversial—frequent community disputes, strong responses to critics, and continuous attacks on Ethereum.
This kind of charisma can create a faith community in a bull market and accelerate the collapse of confidence in a bear market. The price movement of ADA is highly correlated with Bitcoin's direction, indicating that its price is entirely driven by market sentiment rather than its own fundamentals. STCN has no independent narrative; it is merely a shadow of Bitcoin, and a lagging, amplified shadow of its decline.
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Does it really have no chance at all?
To be fair, there are two things worth noting.
Entering 2026, Cardano's governance system in the Voltaire era is fully online, with ADA holders directly governing the protocol and the treasury operating autonomously. This is a true milestone for blockchain decentralization. 36Kr
CME Group has announced the launch of regulated ADA futures contracts, making ADA the third cryptocurrency traded on CME alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is a genuine boost in institutional recognition. Sina
However—enthusiasm often outpaces real adoption in the crypto space. These are encouraging developments, but ADA's price needs user growth to match, rather than relying solely on milestone announcements. Sina
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Final Ruling
Algorithmic models predict that ADA's maximum price will reach $1.08 by 2048. Sina Finance not 2028, but 2048.
This is certainly an extremely pessimistic prediction and shouldn't be taken seriously. But it reveals a market consensus: ADA is a project forgotten by time, not a value lowland mispriced by the market.
The five simultaneous truths that explain why ADA is still dawdling at the bottom while the entire market rises are rigorous technology, slow implementation, lack of narrative, a small ecosystem, and unconstrained supply.
It's not that the market doesn't understand Cardano; it's that the market understands Cardano: a project that treats 'slow is steady' as a virtue, destined to be disliked in a market that only rewards speed and narrative.
The above is personal research and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.$ADA
