XAUUSD, 1D
Since Monday, I’ve been repeating the same idea almost like a broken record:
Gold would eventually break lower and move toward the 4600 support zone.
Even more, yesterday, while many traders were getting frustrated( me included ) by the endless consolidation and chaotic range trading, I argued that the longer the market stayed trapped inside that range, the stronger the eventual breakout would become.
In fact, I specifically said that once the break finally comes, a move of more than 1000 pips would be extremely probable.
And, without trying to brag, that scenario played out almost perfectly.
Gold finally broke the range support and quickly dropped toward the 4600 zone and beyond.
So now the important question is:
Was this the entire move, or is Gold preparing for a deeper continuation lower?
In my opinion — not even close.
And I say this from both a technical and psychological perspective.
Technical Perspective
Technically speaking, something very important has been developing quietly for months.
Last week’s high and this week’s high are, in fact, the fourth lower high since Gold printed the all-time high at the end of January.
That matters.
Because markets rarely continue aggressively bullish while repeatedly failing to create new highs.
In this context, yesterday’s downside break becomes extremely important because it confirms this broader sequence of lower highs and increasing weakness.
There is also another detail worth remembering.
Back in mid-March, Gold spent several frustrating days consolidating in a very similar way. At that time, I also argued that the market was preparing for a larger sell-off, and after the painful range trading finally ended, Gold dropped aggressively.
/
Do I expect the exact same type of collapse now?
Not necessarily.
After all, back then Gold dropped 8k pips in only four days, which was an absolutely massive move, and I’m not a dreamer expecting the exact same type of collapse again.
But continuation to the downside?
Yes — absolutely.
At this moment, I still believe the path of least resistance remains lower.
Psychological Perspective
From a psychological point of view, the situation becomes even more interesting.
At this stage, everybody is aware of the 4500-4530 support zone.
And if Gold has one special talent, it is this: breaking levels where the majority expects a perfect reversal.
Markets rarely reward obvious expectations so easily.
When too many traders focus on the same support zone, the market often pushes beyond it first, simply because that is where liquidity sits.
That is why I remain very cautious about assuming that 4500 zone automatically becomes “the bottom.”
Trading Plan
To keep the story short:
I remain short.
At the time of writing, the trade is already running with around 1250 pips floating profit, and since the stop loss has already been moved to break-even, there is no remaining risk on the position.
My goal now is simple:
➡️ try to finish the week with around 1500 pips profit on this trade.
For traders who missed the initial drop:
- the 4620–4640 zone could offer selling opportunities on retracements
- 4530 remains the soft target
- with possible extension toward the 4500 zone
At this moment, I still believe rallies are selling opportunities rather than reasons to search for aggressive buys.
Because when Gold finally escapes a long period of frustrating consolidation… it usually does not stop after the first move 🚀
