Gold Corrected as Expected – Is the Downtrend Ready to Resume?
Gold Corrected as Expected – Is the Downtrend Ready to Resume? XAUUSD, 60 In yesterday’s analysis, I argued that after the massive sell-off from the end of last week, Gold could temporarily correct part of the move before resuming the broader bearish trend. And that is exactly what happened. Yesterday turned into a classic correction day for Gold, with buyers managing to push the market higher throughout the session. Then, during the Asian session overnight, Gold extended the recovery and reached a high around 4590, slightly above yesterday’s New York session high. Now the key question becomes: Is the correction already over? From my point of view — yes. And the reason is simple: I do not expect Gold to correct in a clean textbook manner by fully retesting the broken 4650 support zone. Markets rarely move in the most obvious way, especially when it comes to Gold. At this moment, the recovery already looks more corrective than impulsive, and the inability to extend significantly higher despite the rebound suggests that sellers are still in control of the broader picture. Why I still lean strongly bearish: - The broader structure remains heavily negative - The recent breakdown changed market character significantly - The current rebound lacks the strength of a true reversal - Gold continues to struggle below former support zones Going further, I expect downside continuation once this recovery fully fades. Trading plan: For now, I continue to look for selling opportunities on rallies, considering the 4590 zone a potential local top. Main downside objective: ➡️ 4400 zone At the same time, I keep in mind yesterday’s low around 4480, which could temporarily slow the decline before continuation. For me, this still looks more like a market catching its breath after a collapse — not one preparing for a sustainable recovery 🚀 $XAU
$XAUUSD Se fai attenzione al grafico, eviterai di comprare qui. Il FVG giornaliero è già stato toccato, e c'è ancora molta liquidità che rimane sotto.
Bitcoin fell below $77,000, extending weekend losses as higher global bond yields and rising oil prices dampened overall risk appetite. BTC last traded down 1.5% at $76,946, its lowest level since May 1, after failing to sustain momentum above $80,000 last week.
L'oro bloccato tra tori e orsi – Perché sto aspettando pazientemente XAUUSD, 15 Dopo il forte ribasso della scorsa settimana — un movimento che, come sapete, ho anticipato in modo piuttosto aggressivo — l'oro ha iniziato la nuova settimana con un'altra spike verso il basso durante la sessione asiatica, rompendo brevemente sotto la soglia di 4500 e raggiungendo un minimo intorno a 4482.
Tuttavia, la rottura non è durata a lungo.
Gli acquirenti hanno reagito rapidamente, spingendo il prezzo di nuovo sopra i 4500, e al momento della scrittura l'oro è scambiato intorno a 4545.
Fino ad ora, questo sembra più una correzione normale dopo un impulsivo sell-off piuttosto che un'inversione completa della struttura ribassista.
E anche se i tori a breve termine sono riusciti a riprendere un po' di controllo, la mia visione a medio termine rimane invariata: ➡️ Mi aspetto ancora che l'oro alla fine rompa chiaramente sotto la zona dei 4500.
Fino ad allora, però, penso che la flessibilità sia estremamente importante perché il mercato sta attualmente scambiando nel bel mezzo del nulla.
La mia visione a breve termine: - Se il prezzo scende ancora una volta sotto i 4500, cercherò opportunità di acquisto, ma considero questo un trade contro-tendenza rischioso, il che significa che la dimensione della posizione deve riflettere il fatto che la pressione generale punta ancora verso il basso. - D'altra parte, se l'oro riesce a rimbalzare sopra la zona dei 4600, cercherò opportunità di vendita in previsione di una ripresa del ribasso generale.
In questo momento, con il prezzo che si trova quasi esattamente a metà tra aree chiave, non vedo alcun motivo per forzare un trade.
A volte la migliore decisione è semplicemente stare fermi e lasciare che il mercato smetta di litigare con se stesso prima 🚀
XAUUSD, 240 Nel report della settimana scorsa abbiamo detto che ci saremmo attaccati al grafico NFP poiché, a nostro avviso, il movimento non era ancora completo. Per questo motivo, abbiamo suggerito che il livello basso, se toccato di nuovo, ci avrebbe riportato nella regione 4720-35, cosa che è effettivamente avvenuta. Durante la settimana e attraverso il periodo di lateralità, abbiamo aggiornato i trader con i punti caldi e l'intervallo, suggerendo che tocchi e rimbalzi erano disponibili, ma lo scalping era possibile solo sui mercati a causa della rottura in sospeso. Abbiamo toccato il punto caldo inferiore e rimbalzato, ottenendo una bella cattura, ma come puoi vedere dal grafico della settimana scorsa, il nostro livello di bias è sceso, e il prezzo ha iniziato a declinare dalla sessione asiatica di venerdì.
L'oro ha finalmente rotto il range – Perché credo che il calo non sia finito
XAUUSD, 1D Da lunedì, ripeto la stessa idea quasi come un disco rotto: L'oro alla fine romperà verso il basso e si dirigerà verso la zona di supporto a 4600. Inoltre, ieri, mentre molti trader si stavano frustrando (compreso me) per la continua consolidazione e il trading in range caotico, ho sostenuto che più a lungo il mercato rimaneva intrappolato in quel range, più forte sarebbe stata l'eventuale rottura. Infatti, ho detto specificamente che una volta che la rottura finalmente avviene, un movimento di oltre 1000 pips sarebbe estremamente probabile.
Silver – Is the Rally Finally Running Out of Steam?
XAGUSD, 60
Silver – Is the Rally Finally Running Out of Steam? XAGUSD, 60 If you’ve been following my recent analyses, you already know that I’ve been bullish on Silver since Monday and repeatedly argued that, technically speaking, Silver looked much stronger and much cleaner than Gold. And so far, that view played out very well. After the expected breakout above the 81.50 zone, Silver accelerated aggressively to the upside, first reaching my 85 target and then continuing toward the major resistance area around 90. Now the question becomes: Does Silver still have enough strength to break higher? In my opinion — at least for now — probably not. Yes, another push up is still possible, especially in a market as emotional and volatile as this one. However, there are already signs that momentum is starting to fade. Why I believe exhaustion is starting to appear: - We are already seeing rejection from the 90 resistance zone - The latest upside moves started to overlap instead of expanding cleanly - Momentum no longer looks as impulsive as it did after the 81.50 breakout - The market feels more stretched than strong at this stage This does not automatically mean “crash.” But it does suggest that buyers may be losing control, at least temporarily. Trading plan: A final push higher is still possible. But if we get such a move, I will personally use it as an opportunity to search for short positions rather than chase the upside. Main downside target: ➡️ Return toward the 81.50 support zone After such an aggressive rally, Silver may simply need to cool down a bit before deciding its next bigger move. And honestly… after moving almost vertically for days, even Silver deserves a coffee break 🚀 $XAG
Gold’s Tight Range Could Explode Soon – 1000+ Pips on the Table?
$XAU USD, 15 One thing is becoming very clear: if you are a swing trader, Gold probably managed to annoy you properly over the past week. For days already, price has been trapped inside a frustrating range where every move starts looking convincing… only to completely reverse a few hours later. You think: “Ok, this will finally be the breakout.” And then Gold replies: “Nope.” But despite the chaos, there is actually one good thing developing here: the range is tightening. At this moment, we now have a relatively clean 500-pip range to monitor: - 4725 zone → resistance - 4670 zone → support And in my opinion, this compression matters. Usually, when a market spends this much time trapped in a narrow structure, the eventual breakout tends to be aggressive. The market is basically storing energy, and once one side finally loses control, the move can become explosive. Personally, I believe that when we finally get a genuine break of this range, the move afterward could easily exceed 1000 pips. My current bias: Although dips have been bought repeatedly, I still lean bearish overall. Why? Because after such a long period of compression, if sellers finally manage to break the downside properly, I highly doubt Gold will simply stop politely around the 4600 zone and bounce like nothing happened. Markets usually do not spend this much time building pressure for a tiny move. So if I eventually get the downside confirmation I’m waiting for, I plan to hold the trade for at least 1000 pips. Now, of course, I’m not married to my opinion. If Gold breaks higher instead, I will take the loss like a grown man, reassess the market, and move on. The goal is not to be “right.” The goal is to survive long enough to catch the move that finally decides to stop trolling everyone 🚀 Thanks for reading.
Trading Vi BULLS VS BEARS — 4670 AND 4710 DECIDE GOLD’S NEXT MOVE XAUUSD, 240 $XAU
After the sharp decline triggered by previous CPI and PPI data, gold is now entering a clear compression phase ahead of tonight’s Retail Sales release. The market is slowing down and waiting for confirmation on whether USD strength can continue after the recent series of economic data.
The key point here is that although the short-term structure still remains inside a bearish channel on H4, gold has not broken down below the rising trendline support yet. This suggests sellers still control the broader structure, but buyers are attempting to defend the last recovery zone to avoid a deeper breakdown toward lower support areas.
From a macro perspective, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data. If Retail Sales stay strong, it would reinforce expectations that the FED may keep higher rates for longer, supporting USD further. In that scenario, gold could break below the lower trendline support, confirming bearish continuation toward the 462x–460x support + fibo areas.
On the other hand, if retail data weakens, gold may see another liquidity sweep back toward the upper 47xx demand zones before the market decides on the next larger directional move. However, at this stage, the current recovery is still viewed as a technical rebound inside a broader bearish structure rather than a sustainable bullish trend.
MAIN SCENARIO: Gold continues compressing ahead of Retail Sales data. If USD remains supported by strong economic numbers, gold may break below the rising trendline and extend the decline toward lower support + fibo zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: If economic data weakens and USD loses momentum, gold could rebound short term toward the 47xx demand area before the market reacts to the next major directional setup.
Price swept liquidity above the highs and instantly showed weakness. Smart money doesn’t chase it waits for confirmation after manipulation. If bearish momentum continues, 4680 may become the next destination.
MORNING UPDATE $XAU $BTC Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after a subdued lead from Wall Street, where sentiment was dampened by tech weakness, higher oil prices, and firmer-than-expected inflation. Geopolitical uncertainty persisted, with Iran reportedly demanding five confidence building conditions before agreeing to a second round of talks with the US. US stocks were mixed Tuesday, with most indices in the red as markets weighed hot inflation and geopolitics; the Dow edged higher. Healthcare, staples, and energy outperformed, while tech and industrials lagged on semiconductor profit-taking, though chips bounced off lows. Trump called the ceasefire “very weak,” Iran reportedly targeted Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia was said to have struck Iran. Iran demands five conditions for talks, including war end, sanctions relief, compensation, and Hormuz sovereignty. President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, along with several other CEOs of major US companies, is aboard Air Force One, and that he will ask Chinese President Xi to open up” China. WTI futures settled $4.11/BBL higher yesterday closing just above $102 as the US-Iran tensions remained uncertain. Gold rallied from $4,638/oz yesterday reaching highs of $4,727/oz before settling around the 4700 handle this morning as the market awaits Trumps China visit. In FX, the DXY was flat, taking a breather after gaining on higher oil prices and a hot CPI report. Focus turns to PPI and the Trump Xi summit. EUR/USD was flat, trading sideways after recent dollar gains, despite hawkish ECB comments from Nagel—who said the ECB must act if inflation expectations de anchor, with June a key meeting, and that rate hikes are increasingly likely. GBP/USD was also flat, constrained by political headwinds as PM Starmer defies calls to step down, inviting a leadership challenge. USD/JPY traded marginally higher, holding above 157.00 on higher oil prices and US yields, with the yen failing to benefit from stronger current account, bank lending data, or market pricing for a BoJ June hike.
Il Bitcoin è salito modestamente lunedì, con guadagni limitati dalle rinnovate tensioni tra Stati Uniti e Iran, mentre l'ottimismo sui progressi delle regolazioni crypto negli Stati Uniti ha sostenuto il sentiment. La criptovaluta è aumentata dell'1,4% a poco meno di $82k