XAUUSD, 240
In last week’s Report we said we will stick with the NFP chart as the move in our opinion was still not complete. For that reason, we suggested that low if tapped into again should give us the 4720-35 region again, which it did. During the week and through the ranging period, we updated traders with the hot spots and the range, suggesting tap and bounces were available but scalping was only possible on the markets due to the pending breakout. We did hit the lower hot spot and bounce, giving a nice capture, but as you can see from last week’s chart, our bias level broke below, and price ultimately started the decline from the Asia session on Friday.
Not a bad week in Camelot on Gold, we managed to get some nice intra-day trades and the scalps performed well on the indicators. We missed 2 targets above after taking a majority of the trade and closing out at BE. LiTE performed and Excalibur made sure we remained in the right direction.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
The question here for most new traders is whether gold is bullish or bearish! It’s not as simple as that, projecting price is one thing, but getting the right entry at the right time for the swing is something else. I’ve seen a lot of traders get caught out high, and they’re still holding, likewise, many as still short from below and still holding. I would like to remind traders, there is a time to swing, and there is a time to scalp, both at the same time are not possible. The worst thing you can do is enter for an intra-day trade, it goes against you, and then convince yourself this is now a swing trade. Gold is bullish overall, but markets need time to reset sentiment and they need to move in structure, so until structure is clear, we will play the intra-day trades and scalps.
So, following on from the above, it’s level to level at the moment with the immediate resistance level above being the 4555-65 region and I have a key level below which is also close to our target level sitting around the 4480-75 region. We’re stretched here so on opening, shorting for us is not a great idea, I would rather wait lower for a base to form, get the cross over and attempt the long trade back up to form a potential swing high. That level above is dependent on the 4555 level initially, and above that 4620-30 which should give opportunity to cut and cover, on the basis we remain below.
Based on the above, it’s a simple plan for the beginning of this week, we’ll wait for an undercut low, potentially into the 4480s with an extension level into the 4450s, we’ll look for everything to align, and then look for the opportunity to long back upside into the levels given, following the red boxes. We’ll release the target levels during the week on the intra-day RBs.
On the flip, if we support on opening and form a clear base, break above the 4660 level and hold, we should get that early opportunity get the trade into the 4595, 4605 and 4610 levels initially. It’s just above there levels we have the flip, which if held, can bring us all the way back down again in attempt to break below 4500 and continue lower.
As always, we’ll update traders with the RB levels and Gold of the day, but for now, it’s intra-day level to level trading.
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