Bitcoin’s short-term holder cohort has returned to a major stress zone, with recent buyers increasingly underwater as market sentiment moves back into Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin short-term holder market cap fell to $237.7 billion on June 26, its lowest level since October 2, 2024, when it stood near $239.7 billion.

The current reading places the market value of short-term holder supply below the cohort’s realized value, showing that many recent buyers are now holding unrealized losses.

The October 2024 comparison is notable.

That earlier low appeared during a major short-term holder capitulation phase near an important Bitcoin bottom, although the current setup does not guarantee the same outcome.

Sentiment data confirms the pressure.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12 on June 25, placing the market in Extreme Fear as Bitcoin traded near $59,700.

The reading is not the lowest of the year. The index fell to 8 on June 8, when Bitcoin traded near $63,000, and reached 6 on February 7 at roughly $69,000.

However, the current Extreme Fear reading comes at a materially lower Bitcoin price, highlighting the depth of short-term stress.

The signal is cautionary rather than a confirmed bottom. If short-term holder market cap continues to decline alongside weak sentiment, the market may still face further capitulation pressure. But if Bitcoin stabilizes while these indicators remain depressed, the setup could shift toward seller exhaustion as weaker short-term holders are gradually forced out of the market.

Written by Amr Taha