Thu Ta San aka Arden

Ciao, che succede leggende! Arden qui, i tuoi occhi e orecchie a terra per tutto ciò che riguarda Binance e oltre. 🚀
Ascolta, perché quello che sto per dirti è il sacro graal assoluto per restare in vita in questi mercati. Vedo troppi trader al dettaglio che saltano nel più recente gioiello BSC o nel gioco ETH con leva con energia "tutto dentro". Questo è il modo più veloce per essere distrutti ed uscire dal gioco prima che la vera missione lunare inizi.
Se vuoi fare trading come una balena, devi padroneggiare il Position Sizing. Non è solo matematica; è il tuo scudo contro la volatilità dello spazio crypto.

Listen up, fam! You’ve hit the nail on the head. We are officially at the "Decision Zone" for the market. The retracement to the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETFs is a massive psychological and technical crossroads.
When institutional giants and retail ETF holders start seeing their PnL flip to red, the "diamond hands" get tested. Here is the Arden breakdown of what this means for your bags:
📉 The "ETF Breakeven" Battleground
The average cost basis for these spot ETFs acts as a dynamic support level.
The Bull Case: If fresh demand steps in here, it proves that institutional players still view these levels as a "value buy," potentially leading to a aggressive bounce.The Bear Case: If we slice through this cost basis, those same holders may shift from "HODLing" to "Risk Mitigation," creating a cascade of selling pressure.
🛠️ Key Levels to Watch on Binance
Based on the latest technicals, here’s where the "rubber hits the road":
Immediate Support: $85,000 - $85,262. This has emerged as a critical "final support" zone where buyers have historically defended the trend.The "Danger Zone": A daily close below $83,000 could trigger a faster decline toward the $70,000 - $72,000 range.Resistance to Reclaim: Bulls need to smash back above $91,000 - $94,700 to flip the current bearish structure and eye that $100k milestone again.
🧠 Bro Strategy: Managing the Chop
The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows price currently testing the lower bounds, which reinforces this major support zone.
Wait for Confirmation: Don't catch a falling knife. Look for a Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line) crossover above the Kijun-Sen (Base Line) for a safer entry signal.
⚠️ The Disclaimer
Real talk, fam: This is for educational purposes only. Crypto markets are volatile, and ETF flows can flip on a dime. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and never trade more than you can afford to lose.

Solana (SOL) continua a mostrare debolezza tecnica nel timeframe di 4 ore, con indicatori di tendenza che segnalano che i venditori rimangono in controllo. Sia la Cloud di Ichimoku che la EMA 200 stanno fungendo da forte resistenza superiore, impedendo qualsiasi significativa inversione di tendenza.

Struttura di mercato attuale
SOL sta scambiando al di sotto della Cloud di Ichimoku, mantenendo la tendenza generale ribassista

Il prezzo continua a subire rifiuti vicino al confine inferiore della cloud
La struttura di mercato suggerisce consolidamento all'interno di un ambiente ribassista piuttosto che accumulazione

Bitcoin Tests Its “True Market Mean” as 2025 Structure Begins to Resemble 2022

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently navigating a critical phase as price action tests what analysts call the “True Market Mean”, a level that has historically defined the boundary between temporary pullbacks and prolonged bear markets.

Bitcoin at a Critical Support Level

BTC has declined to approximately $81.3K, representing the aggregate cost basis of all non-dormant coins. This metric has long served as a structural “line in the sand” for the broader market. In previous cycles, sustained trading above this level allowed the market to recover, while a breakdown often preceded multi-year bearish conditions.

For now, price remains marginally above this anchor, but the margin for error is thin.

Growing Pressure from Underwater Supply

Following Bitcoin’s drop below the 0.75 quantile level at $96.1K, more than 25% of the total circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss. This shift significantly increases psychological pressure on recent buyers, particularly those who entered near cycle highs.

Historically, such conditions force a decisive outcome: either capitulation, accelerating downside, or strong hands absorbing supply, forming a durable bottom.

Market Structure Echoes Early 2022

Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between the current market environment and Q1 2022. Demand across spot markets and Bitcoin ETFs has weakened, while institutional participants appear more defensive, adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach rather than aggressive accumulation.

This similarity in structure raises concerns that the market could be entering a prolonged consolidation or distribution phase if demand does not recover soon.

Market Outlook: Neutral but Fragile

The broader sentiment remains neutral, yet extremely fragile. While Bitcoin has not broken its key support, momentum remains weak, and confidence among large players is clearly deteriorating.

Large-cap assets and ETF inflows are showing signs of cooling, reinforcing the idea that institutional capital is prioritizing capital preservation over expansion at this stage.

Key Levels to Watch Going Forward

To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim $106.2K (0.85 quantile) as a confirmed support level. Such a move would likely signal renewed strength and a continuation of the broader bullish cycle.

On the downside, a daily close below $81.3K would be a significant technical and psychological breakdown, potentially marking the transition into a more definitive bear market phase.

As macroeconomic uncertainty continues to influence risk assets, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to external shocks. The coming weeks may prove pivotal in defining the direction of the 2025 market cycle.