Rei Researcher

L'espansione del P/E dell'S&P 500 sta segnalando la prossima onda #Crypto?

- Guardando il grafico di correlazione tra il rapporto P/E dell'S&P 500 e $BTC Prezzo da Alphafractal, possiamo osservare diverse somiglianze:
- Il rapporto P/E dell'S&P 500 è schizzato a un livello inimmaginabile (~40) a causa dell'impatto dei pacchetti di stimolo economico globale. Questo è stato un "pump di liquidità" storico. Di conseguenza, $BTC ha ricevuto un afflusso di capitali ritardato (effetto lag) ed è esploso per raggiungere un picco di ciclo poco dopo.
- Mentre il P/E dell'S&P 500 si muoveva in laterale e si stabilizzava nella fascia media, BTC ha fatto un potente breakthrough sopra il mark di $100K grazie a catalizzatori interni (Spot ETF e afflussi di capitale diretti).
- Dopo un lungo periodo di correzione, il P/E del mercato azionario statunitense ha appena fatto un ritorno spettacolare, sparando dritto oltre il segno di 30. Questo indica che le valutazioni TradFi stanno diventando molto costose, riflettendo le enormi aspettative degli investitori per la crescita aziendale.
- In contrasto con il ripido aumento del P/E, il prezzo attuale di $BTC ha appena subito una correzione dal suo picco ed è in consolidamento laterale, creando una struttura compattata.

Quando le valutazioni TradFi (P/E) raggiungono soglie eccessivamente alte, la pressione per cercare asset alternativi con rendimenti superiori aumenterà. La corrente divergenza tra il P/E e BTC è spesso il preludio alla prossima esplosione #Crypto mentre il capitale ruota.

#Bitcoin Exchange Netflow: Net supply pressure between two corrections

According to #Bitcoin Exchange Netflow chart data on ForeDex, Current Netflow data shows distinct characteristics compared to the previous sharp correction:

During the previous sharp correction: The chart recorded continuous red Netflow bars with large amplitudes. This was a phase where the supply moving onto exchanges spiked, moving in tandem with the sharp downward trend of the $BTC price.

Recently: Net inflow pressure has narrowed significantly. The volume of red bars has dropped to low levels, while alternating with net outflow movements—most notably a strong net outflow in early May. Parallel to this, the $BTC price line has started showing signs of moving sideways and recovering slightly from the area around 78K.

The decrease in positive Netflow volume indicates that selling pressure from investors has slowed down compared to the previous period. The market is currently entering a new state of equilibrium as the supply ready to be sold diminishes, creating space for the $BTC price to stabilize and accumulate while waiting for clearer signals from demand.

Financial Conditions Index (FCI) Proxy vs. $BTC Price: A macro perspective on the inverse correlation between financial conditions and Bitcoin has never been clearer:

According to data from Alphractal, the Financial Conditions Index chart shows:
- When FCI eased (< 0) in late 2023, it fueled $BTC 's explosion toward nearly 100K. Conversely, tightening shocks (> 0) in mid-2024 and late 2025 immediately halted the upward momentum. Currently (Q2/2026), FCI has cooled down rapidly toward the neutral zone (~0), relieving macroeconomic pressure and creating favorable conditions for the $BTC price structure to stabilize and recover.

- System liquidity remains the primary driver of the #Crypto market, especially $BTC . A cooling FCI is a positive signal for a healthy accumulation phase.

Il Bitcoin è in una zona di prezzo estremamente sensibile! Cosa osservare dal grafico dei Holder Metrics di CryptoQuant

Il prezzo attuale del BTC (~77K) è l'area di intersezione dei gruppi di holder:

- $BTC ha appena avuto un'onda di recupero ma sta affrontando pressione mentre si avvicina al costo base degli STH. Quest'area attualmente funge da forte RESISTENZA

- La buona notizia è che il $BTC prezzo sta ancora tenendo sopra il costo base dei flussi di fondi istituzionali (ETF). Questo è un BUFFER DI SUPPORTO cruciale nel breve termine. Se questa zona viene rotta, verrà attivato un trend negativo

- L'attuale $BTC prezzo (~77K) sta scivolando in una zona di prezzo critica: supportato proprio sotto dal costo base dei fondi ETF, ma pesantemente schiacciato proprio sopra dalla pressione di resistenza del costo base dei holder a breve termine e dalla EMA 200

- Questa è la fase in cui il mercato si sta consolidando e scegliendo la sua prossima direzione chiara. Il trend a medio termine sarà stabilito solo quando il BTC romperà completamente uno di questi due livelli di costo base

-> Seguimi per analisi giornaliera on-chain #Bitcoin

Short-term holder (STH) sentiment is in a sensitive zone

Bitcoin Indicator: The Short-Term Holder SOPR on CryptoQuant is currently dipping slightly below 1 (reaching 0.99*), reflecting current market behavior:

When BTC STH SOPR < 1, short-term investors tend to sell at a slight loss or break-even as the $BTC price corrects to the $78K zone

Historical perspective: Previous data shows that whenever this indicator drops sharply (completely shaking out speculators), the market often establishes a local bottom before recovering

The stop-loss selling pressure for $BTC this time is not as panicked as in November 2025 or February 2026, indicating that market sentiment is shifting towards a gentler shakeout and accumulation phase

-> Follow me for daily on-chain #Bitcoin analysis

STABLECOIN DEPOSIT TRANSACTIONS ON BINANCE SKYROCKET

The All Stablecoins (ERC20): Exchange Depositing Transactions chart on Binance (by CryptoQuant) has just recorded a massive volume of deposits flowing into the exchange.

The number of ERC20 #stablecoin deposit transactions on Binance spiked vertically, reaching nearly 85K transactions per day. Note that this metric measures the number of transfer orders (transactions), not the total monetary volume. This indicates a sudden surge in the number of individual wallet addresses depositing funds.

During periods of high market volatility, moving #stablecoins onto exchanges often serves purposes such as swapping, providing collateral, or optimizing spot purchase portfolios.

The #STABLECOIN chart confirms that market liquidity and interest are surging significantly, even amidst a sluggish market environment.

-> Follow me for daily on-chain Bitcoin analysis

On-chain Check: #Bitcoin Inflow #Binance

According to data from the #Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow - Spent Output Age Bands - Binance chart by #CryptoQuant:

A large amount of $BTC
was recently deposited onto #Binance
at the end of April 2026. These are coins accumulated around the beginning of 2025 (the 12m ~ 18m cohort). After holding for over a year, this group is choosing the $75k - $80k price range to restructure their portfolios.

Significant movement from medium-term holders typically leads to medium-term price volatility. If the price holds firm above key support levels despite this selling pressure, the uptrend will become even more sustainable.

SIGNALS FROM DORMANT "WHALES" $BTC

- The Average Dormancy index on CryptoQuant is sending critical signals regarding the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs).

- Historical Context: Historically, whenever the purple bars spike (notably between mid-2024 and late 2025), Bitcoin prices often face strong downward pressure shortly after. This represents "smart money" exiting positions as prices hit local peaks.

- Current Situation: $BTC is currently recovering around the $80.5K mark. Recent Dormancy bars are very low and flat.

- Holding Pattern: Dormancy staying low indicates that long-term #Bitcoin holders show no signs of a sell-off at this 80K level.

- Selling pressure from LTHs is currently negligible. The market is accumulating more sustainably compared to previous "spike-and-dump" #cycles.

- The $BTC Dormancy index remains low, suggesting that long-term holders are pausing their moves, leaving the market in a state of accumulation while waiting for clearer signals. While whale dump pressure hasn't appeared yet, investors should cautiously monitor any sudden spikes in the purple bars to react quickly to potential correction risks at this sensitive price zone.

#Bitcoin: 2Y SMA Multiplier

Based on data from the 2Y SMA Multiplier chart on Alphractal:

- #Bitcoin's price is currently moving above the 2Y SMA line. Historically, when the price stays above this line, the market is confirmed to be in a medium-term growth phase.
- The $BTC price is still quite far from the high multiplier lines, where "overheating" and heavy profit-taking typically occur. At the same time, the price has fully moved away from the "oversold" zone. Bitcoin is no longer at record-low prices, but it has not yet entered the speculative bubble zone according to this indicator.
- The market is maintaining a stable growth structure, with no signs of psychological extremes (panic or excessive euphoria). A neutral position suggests healthy accumulation before the next trend is determined.

Ethereum: The Divergence Between Staking and Price

The Ethereum Total Value Staked chart on CryptoQuant reveals a notable signal regarding the current market structure:
- The total amount of $ETH staked has increased sharply since the beginning of 2026, currently reaching approximately 39M $ETH . This indicates that long-term holder confidence remains very strong.
- However, in the pink zone (May 2026), the staking line has begun to plateau and show a slight decline. This often suggests that investors are withdrawing funds for liquidity or portfolio restructuring.
- While staking volume is at record highs, the price of $ETH is still consolidating around the $2,250 mark, significantly lower than its previous peaks.

- The market is in a compression phase. The recent slight dip in staking volume could be a signal for upcoming high volatility. Keep a close watch on the current price support levels.

MSTR & BTC ACQUISITION STRATEGY

Looking at the #MSTR #Bitcoin Flow chart on Foredex, it is clear that MicroStrategy is not just investing—they are executing a continuous buy-up that is significantly reducing the actual circulating supply.

Within one year, the Total BTC Holdings line has shifted from a "staircase" pattern to a near-vertical slope. They have accumulated over 200,000 $BTC , bringing their total holdings to a record 819,000 $BTC as of May 14, 2026.

When the price of $BTC dropped sharply from over $100k to the $60k range in early 2026, the Netflow columns spiked significantly. Instead of playing defense, #MSTR took advantage of the correction to execute some of the largest DCA moves in corporate history.

The past year has witnessed MSTR's relentless accumulation of $BTC . While leverage risks remain, their current position is now virtually unshakeable.
-> Follow me for daily on-chain Bitcoin analysis

According to #Ethereum Exchange Flux Balance data from Alphractal, the Exchange Flux Balance index has officially dropped to negative levels (-3.47M). This confirms a structural shift:

- Record Exchange Withdrawals: The total amount of $ETH withdrawn from exchanges in history is now greater than the total amount deposited.
- Supply Lock-up: Approximately 83% of the circulating $ETH is currently locked in Staking protocols. The withdrawal of $ETH into cold wallets or Staking has eliminated direct selling pressure on exchanges.

Unlike previous cycles, May 2026 marks significant participation from investment funds:

- Funds such as #BitMine have accumulated over 1 million ETH since the beginning of 2026, bringing their total holdings to over 5 million $ETH .
- In April 2026 alone, #Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $356 million.

This milestone confirms that Ethereum has entered a phase of technical scarcity, but future price strength will depend entirely on whether Demand can outweigh Supply.

Ethereum: Sudden Selling Pressure or the Final "Shakeout"?

The latest on-chain data from Binance is sending highly notable signals regarding the behavior of Ethereum (ETH) investors.

According to the Ethereum Exchange Depositing Addresses (Binance) chart from CryptoQuant, we have just witnessed a vertical spike reaching 9K ETH deposit addresses. This is the highest level in over a year, far exceeding the minor peaks seen in late 2025 sent to the #Binance exchange. The Ethereum Exchange Inflow (Total) - Binance chart shows tall green bars, confirming that selling pressure is present at the $2.26K price zone.

Panic Selling or Profit Taking? A sharp increase in deposit addresses usually represents retail investors who are in fear or losing patience as ETH prices gradually recover.

The market is focusing heavily on inflation indices and Fed moves. This uncertainty causes risk assets like ETH to face sell-offs as investors seek safety in more stable assets.

Analysis of USDC (ERC20) Circulating Supply Fluctuations

- According to the USD Coin (ERC20) Circulating Supply chart on CryptoQuant, a notable cycle in USDC capitalization has emerged from mid-2023 to the present:
- Growth Phase: From late 2024 to early 2026, the supply surged from below $30B to a peak of over $50B. This typically reflects high liquidity demand and new capital inflows into the DeFi/On-chain ecosystem.
- The Correction: Since Q1/2026, we have observed a sharp decline. Currently, the supply has retraced to the $30.2B mark, erasing all growth gains from 2025. 📉
- The decline may be attributed to investors converting stablecoins back to fiat or shifting toward other assets and stablecoins (indicating a fragmented market no longer concentrated on just one or two dominant coins). It is essential to monitor whether this capital is flowing into competitor stablecoins or various Layer-2 networks.

The market is currently in a reset phase. Stability at the $30B level will be the key indicator for the next trend.

Bitcoin Spot ETF: The "Fuel" for the Next Growth Wave?

- Based on Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow Total data from Foredex charts, we are seeing crucial signals regarding the market's current capital structure.
- Positive Momentum: After a period of strong outflows that led to price corrections, the chart now shows a return of green, indicating a recovery that aligns with $BTC price action.
- Institutional Consistency: The Total SMA30 line for $BTC is trending upward and remaining in positive territory. This proves that institutions have maintained steady net buying pressure over the past month, rather than just chasing short-term price spikes.
- The "Safety Net": Every time the price shows signs of correction, ETF inflows tend to increase, acting as a solid "cushion" to prevent deep crashes.
- Currently, both price and inflows are trending upward together, suggesting that the current growth momentum is not driven by short-term speculation, but rather by long-term capital from investment funds.

$BTC Price vs. Google Trends: "Silent Accumulation" Signal?

- Looking at data from Alphractal, we see an extremely interesting divergence between PRICE and RETAIL INTEREST from potential investors or market newcomers.

- Historically, when prices rise, search volume also explodes alongside the price trend, marking times when retail investors and newcomers jump in. Currently, $BTC has corrected by about 40%, accompanied by a significantly low correction in search volume.

- The data also reveals something else: the recent rally was driven by institutional money (ETFs, Institutional) rather than retail. Has the FOMO crowd truly woken up yet?

BTC & Bitcoin Fund Holdings: Confirming accumulation momentum

- According to Bitcoin Fund Holdings chart data from CryptoQuant

- The amount of Bitcoin held by funds (Fund Holdings) has officially increased sharply, reaching approximately 1.36 million $BTC. Historical data on the chart shows that, after a period of sharp decline, fund holdings have begun to recover and accelerate strongly from April 2026 to the present. Positive reactions are consistent with the growth momentum of Fund Holdings. The recovery of the fund holdings line shows great confidence from institutional cash flow at a time when the market still has many sensitive factors surrounding it.

- It is necessary to observe the sustainability of this trend. The continuous increase in holdings by funds is an important confirmation signal, creating a solid foundation for medium-term growth and mitigating risks from retail sell-offs; however, in my personal view, we still need to monitor whether institutional buying strength remains strong and continues to support the upward momentum of $BTC.

- Further monitoring of macro parameters and political instability is needed, as it is very possible that something could happen causing institutional investors to flee.

BTC & Pi Cycle Model: Confirming medium-term momentum

According to the PI Cycle Model chart data on foredex
BTC price has officially crossed above the 111-day moving average. While historical data shows that breaking and holding above this line is often a signal confirming the acceleration phase of an uptrend
the 2*350DMA line — often considered the "ceiling" of the cycle — still maintains a distance above. This indicates that market growth potential remains significant before reaching the overheated threshold according to the Pi Cycle model.
It is necessary to observe price reactions at the psychological zone around the current price. A confirmation candle closing firmly above the 111DMA will strengthen the thesis for continuing the growth trend
This crossover is an important indicator of cash flow strength. However, investors should pay attention to risk management at psychological resistance zones to avoid short-term technical corrections.

Ethereum: L'Impulso del Capitale Realizzato è nella Zona "Storica"

Guardando ai dati on-chain $ETH , abbiamo appena assistito a un crollo record nei flussi di capitale realizzato all'inizio del 2026, toccando i livelli più bassi degli ultimi anni.

Secondo i dati sull'Impulso del Capitale Realizzato di Alphractal, vedo che è avvenuta un'estrema paura. Cali profondi come questo sono spesso un segnale di un'accurata pulizia del mercato, eliminando le posizioni deboli.

Secondo i dati storici, ogni volta che l'indicatore raggiunge questa estrema zona di "iper-venduto", il mercato di solito forma un minimo medio-lungo termine o inizia una nuova fase di accumulo.

L'indicatore sta tentando una ripresa graduale verso il livello 0. I flussi di capitale stanno cercando equilibrio dopo un periodo di alta volatilità.

A mio avviso, questa è una fase che richiede pazienza e osservazione attenta. La storia non si ripete esattamente, ma spesso fa rima.

Binance $ETH Liquidity Surge: Quantitative Shift in Exchange Supply Dynamics

- Data from CryptoQuant records notable fluctuations in $ETH capital flow over the past 24 hours:
-Significant Reserve Increase: The Exchange Reserve index on Binance has just adjusted from 3.4M to 3.8M ETH. This marks a substantial shift in the supply-demand structure on this exchange.
- The chart shows a sudden spike in Inflow with a volume of approximately 165.6K ETH. This is the largest net inflow recorded since the beginning of 2026.
- This deposit occurred while the ETH price was hovering around $2,320, following a recent broad market recovery.
- Historical Analysis: Historically, large Inflow spikes often lead to two scenarios: increasing liquidity to prepare for new trading positions, or preparing for profit-taking/portfolio restructuring by large investors.

- The market is at a critical stage to observe whether demand is strong enough to absorb this newly injected supply.