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The $23 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry: Set to Explode in Just a Few Hours – What Traders Need to Know...

In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, few events capture the attention of traders and investors quite like a massive options expiry. Today marks a historic moment as approximately $23.6 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options are set to expire on December 26, 2025, at 08:00 UTC, primarily on platforms like Deribit. This expiry involves around 268,000 contracts and represents over 50% of the total open interest on Deribit, making it the largest in history when combined with Ethereum options, pushing the overall figure to about $27-28.5 billion. Coinciding with the end of the fourth quarter and often dubbed the "Boxing Day Expiry," this event has been building anticipation amid Bitcoin's recent trading range of $85,000 to $90,000.

At the heart of this expiry is the concept of "max pain," calculated at around $96,000 to $102,000 for Bitcoin. Max pain represents the price level where the maximum losses occur for options buyers, while sellers (often market makers) stand to profit the most. It's determined by analyzing the distribution of open interest across various strike prices, not just the overall volume of calls versus puts. In this case, with Bitcoin currently hovering around $88,000, the price sits below max pain, potentially creating upward pressure as dealers hedge their positions to minimize risks.

A key indicator here is the put-to-call ratio, which stands at about 0.38-0.76, signaling a strong bullish bias. This means call options (betting on price increases) outnumber puts (betting on declines) by roughly two to three times. Open interest is heavily concentrated in calls at strikes like $100,000 to $116,000, while puts cluster around $85,000 to $90,000. Such a setup suggests the market anticipates upward movement, but it's not without nuance. Market makers, who are typically short on these calls, engage in delta hedging—buying or selling spot Bitcoin to balance exposure. Contrary to intuition, a dominance of short calls often leads to supportive buying in the spot market, potentially propping up prices rather than driving them down.

The impact on the broader crypto market could be significant, especially given the reduced liquidity during holiday periods, which amplifies volatility. For Bitcoin itself, this expiry may trigger a breakout from its recent consolidation range. In the lead-up, gamma effects have helped stabilize prices, but as contracts expire, this damping force diminishes, paving the way for sharper moves—potentially 5-10% swings in a single day, based on historical patterns. Negative flows from Bitcoin ETFs add downward risk, but the overall bullish sentiment could counterbalance this.

Beyond Bitcoin, the ripple effects extend to Ethereum and major altcoins. Ethereum, with its own sizeable expiry contributing to the total, often mirrors Bitcoin's movements but with higher beta—meaning amplified gains or losses. If Bitcoin experiences volatility, Ethereum could see even more pronounced swings, influenced by similar hedging dynamics on Deribit. For altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano, the correlation is indirect but strong. These assets tend to follow Bitcoin's lead, with higher sensitivity to market sentiment. A bullish resolution to the expiry might spark inflows into altcoins, boosting projects in DeFi (Solana) or cross-border payments (XRP), while a bearish outcome could exacerbate declines, as altcoins often underperform during Bitcoin corrections.

Why does max pain sit above the current price despite the call-heavy setup? It's all about strike distribution. Calls are clustered at higher levels, so at $96,000-$102,000, most options (both calls and puts) end out-of-the-money, maximizing buyer losses. A lower price might activate more puts, reducing overall pain for holders. This doesn't guarantee a drop; instead, hedging often pulls prices toward max pain.

In summary, this monumental $23 billion Bitcoin options expiry at 08:00 UTC on December 26, 2025—just hours away—underscores the maturing yet unpredictable nature of crypto derivatives. Traders should brace for potential volatility across $BTC , $ETH , and top altcoins like $SOL , $XRP, and $ADA. While market makers' actions aren't manipulative per se, their hedging can sway short-term dynamics. Stay vigilant—events like this remind us why crypto remains a high-stakes arena.
#BTC

L’analisi tecnica è davvero importante?
La risposta breve è sì, ma non è sufficiente.
Non dimentichiamo che l'analisi tecnica è una scienza ben nota e non è riservata a nessuno, e dobbiamo prestare la massima attenzione che il market maker conosca anche l'analisi tecnica e sappia quali sono le aspettative della maggior parte dei trader.
Ha anche i suoi strumenti che la stragrande maggioranza dei trader non possiede, e il problema principale è che è superiore ai trader nella sua capacità di controllare e manipolare il mercato, sia che il market maker sia una persona che controlla una moneta specifica o un gruppo di persone che coordinano insieme i loro movimenti previo accordo.

Sei interessato al copy trading spot su Binance per copiare le operazioni dei lead trader?

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