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The CLARITY Act is a comprehensive rulebook for crypto markets. Like other major pieces of financial services legislation (e.g., Dodd/Frank), the bill is long and contains many elements . CLARITY aims to clarify which regulators are responsible for which oversight. It establishes a framework to distinguish between investment contracts and digital commodities, which would be regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), respectively (building upon earlier agency rulemaking).
Why: Moving from Ambiguity to Structure
The CLARITY Act matters because for much of the past decade, digital asset regulation has been shaped primarily through enforcement rather than formal rulemaking. Tens of billions of dollars in regulatory fines have been paid, and countless participants have avoided the crypto industry due to the fear of regulatory backlash. But as the market has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem, this ambiguity has become increasingly difficult to sustain.
Who: Market Participants and Stakeholders
CLARITY will impact a broad range of market participants. Developers will gain clearer guidance on how to structure and launch new projects, while investors will benefit from reduced legal uncertainty around ownership and project outlook. Exchanges, brokers, and custodians will gain clearer registration pathways, and asset issuers will face more defined requirements around token distribution and ongoing compliance. Regulators, in turn, will be operating within a more defined framewoSh
When: Path to President’s Desk
Polymarket currently assigns a 67% probability to the CLARITY Act passing in 2026. Before reaching the President’s desk, the bill must still advance through the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate, and be approved by both chambers. With a limited legislative calendar, meaningful progress will need to occur ahead of the July recess to maintain momentum. We expect a potential markup in the Senate Banking Committee in the coming weeks.
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