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The $US
Dollar Index slipped again on Tuesday,
failing to reclaim the 100.00 level after forming a two-bar reversal pattern at ten-month highs.
The Federal Reserve is almost certain to hold rates on Wednesday, but the updated dot plot carries significant risk for the greenback's near-term direction.
Rate cut expectations have been heavily repriced since the Iran conflict began, and markets now price in just one 25bps cut in December 2026.
US Dollar Index daily chart
#us
#usindex
#Crypto
Dollar Index slipped again on Tuesday,
failing to reclaim the 100.00 level after forming a two-bar reversal pattern at ten-month highs.
The Federal Reserve is almost certain to hold rates on Wednesday, but the updated dot plot carries significant risk for the greenback's near-term direction.
Rate cut expectations have been heavily repriced since the Iran conflict began, and markets now price in just one 25bps cut in December 2026.
US Dollar Index daily chart
#us
#usindex
#Crypto
🚨 $GIGGLE
entrando silenziosamente nella fase di accumulo… stai osservando da vicino? 👀
Mentre la folla insegue l'hype, i portafogli intelligenti si stanno posizionando in anticipo 🐳
La liquidità sta aumentando, la volatilità si sta comprimendo — si sta formando un setup esplosivo ⚡
🎯 Se il momentum si conferma, $GIGGLE potrebbe vedere un movimento esplosivo al rialzo
Non è hype da un giorno all'altro… ma un'espansione calcolata 📈
La domanda non è se — ma se sei in anticipo o in ritardo.
Rimani paziente. Rimani concentrato. 🚀
#giggle
#CryptoPatience
#GIGGLEUSDC
entrando silenziosamente nella fase di accumulo… stai osservando da vicino? 👀
Mentre la folla insegue l'hype, i portafogli intelligenti si stanno posizionando in anticipo 🐳
La liquidità sta aumentando, la volatilità si sta comprimendo — si sta formando un setup esplosivo ⚡
🎯 Se il momentum si conferma, $GIGGLE potrebbe vedere un movimento esplosivo al rialzo
Non è hype da un giorno all'altro… ma un'espansione calcolata 📈
La domanda non è se — ma se sei in anticipo o in ritardo.
Rimani paziente. Rimani concentrato. 🚀
#giggle
#CryptoPatience
#GIGGLEUSDC
Visualizza traduzione
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Pound extends gains as traders eye Fed-BoE decisions
$GBP /USD Price Analysis: Pound extends gains as traders eye Fed-BoE decisions
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3350, up for a second consecutive day, as traders eye central bank decisions from both sides of the Atlantic.
The Fed will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and is expected to keep interest rates steady.
The BoE will release its interest rate decision on Thursday, after a fresh batch of UK Employment data.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3350 price region on Tuesday, striking a bullish tone as investors continue to move away from the #US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
The Fed’s policy dilemma is being tested by rising energy prices tied to the Middle East war. Higher Oil prices are potentially delaying rate cuts, as officials balance persistent inflation risks against slowing growth. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index accelerated to 3.1% YoY in January from 3% in December, signalling stalled progress toward the 2% goal, putting interest-rate cuts in jeopardy.
The #MiddleEast war keeps markets under tension as the Strait of Hormuz is still partially seized by Iran. The United States (US) President Donald Trump is trying to gather allies to rally against the blockade, but has not yet been successful.
In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England (BoE) will also reveal its interest rate decision on Thursday, with market players expecting a hawkish hold. Earlier in the day, UK Employment data is set to be released hours before the BoE interest rate decision. The data, however, isn't likely to significantly impact the pair, as the interest rate decision will already be set.
#GBPUSD short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3340. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair stabilizes above a cluster of supports. Price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.3300 but remains below the 100-period SMA around 1.3400, framing a corrective rebound within a broader softening backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has rebounded toward 54 after dipping below 50 in the European session, signaling improving upside pressure after a prior downside stretch.
Immediate support is seen at 1.3299, with a break lower exposing the next floor at 1.3273. Holding above these levels would keep buyers positioned to challenge initial resistance at 1.3360, which guards the descending 100-period SMA near 1.3400. A clear move above 1.3360 would open the way toward the 1.3400 region, while failure to defend 1.3299 would weaken the current recovery bias and refocus attention on 1.3273.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3350, up for a second consecutive day, as traders eye central bank decisions from both sides of the Atlantic.
The Fed will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and is expected to keep interest rates steady.
The BoE will release its interest rate decision on Thursday, after a fresh batch of UK Employment data.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3350 price region on Tuesday, striking a bullish tone as investors continue to move away from the #US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
The Fed’s policy dilemma is being tested by rising energy prices tied to the Middle East war. Higher Oil prices are potentially delaying rate cuts, as officials balance persistent inflation risks against slowing growth. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index accelerated to 3.1% YoY in January from 3% in December, signalling stalled progress toward the 2% goal, putting interest-rate cuts in jeopardy.
The #MiddleEast war keeps markets under tension as the Strait of Hormuz is still partially seized by Iran. The United States (US) President Donald Trump is trying to gather allies to rally against the blockade, but has not yet been successful.
In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England (BoE) will also reveal its interest rate decision on Thursday, with market players expecting a hawkish hold. Earlier in the day, UK Employment data is set to be released hours before the BoE interest rate decision. The data, however, isn't likely to significantly impact the pair, as the interest rate decision will already be set.
#GBPUSD short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3340. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair stabilizes above a cluster of supports. Price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.3300 but remains below the 100-period SMA around 1.3400, framing a corrective rebound within a broader softening backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has rebounded toward 54 after dipping below 50 in the European session, signaling improving upside pressure after a prior downside stretch.
Immediate support is seen at 1.3299, with a break lower exposing the next floor at 1.3273. Holding above these levels would keep buyers positioned to challenge initial resistance at 1.3360, which guards the descending 100-period SMA near 1.3400. A clear move above 1.3360 would open the way toward the 1.3400 region, while failure to defend 1.3299 would weaken the current recovery bias and refocus attention on 1.3273.
$AUD : I termini di scambio positivi compensano il rischio geopolitico – TD Securities
Gli strateghi di TD Securities Prashant Newnaha e Alex Loo mantengono una posizione costruttiva sul Dollaro Australiano (AUD) nonostante il voto ravvicinato 5-4 della Banca Centrale Australiana (RBA). Uno shock positivo nei termini di scambio e l'aumento della copertura da parte dei fondi pensione australiani sostengono l'outperformance dell'AUD nel G10. Vedono la domanda AUD/USD intorno a 0,69 anche se la forza del USD si estende, mentre si aspettano che l'AUD/CAD si corregga al ribasso rispetto all'esposizione relativa tra Cina e Stati Uniti.
L'AUD sembra sovraperformare nello spazio G10
"Il supporto dei tassi potrebbe passare in secondo piano dopo la decisione ravvicinata 5-4 di oggi da parte del Consiglio per un aumento di 25 punti base. Manteniamo comunque il nostro bias per l'AUD come sovraperformante nello spazio G10 poiché beneficia di uno shock positivo nei termini di scambio - l'Australia è il terzo produttore di GNL al mondo, dietro il Qatar e gli Stati Uniti."
"L'aumento della copertura valutaria da parte dei fondi pensione australiani potrebbe anche ancorare l'AUD in questo ambiente geopolitico volatile."
"Se la forza di $USDE si estende questa settimana a causa di un'escalation nel conflitto del Medio Oriente, ci aspettiamo comunque che l'AUD/USD trovi una domanda migliore intorno al livello di 0,69."
"Sui cross, vediamo spazio per l'AUD/CAD per correggersi significativamente al ribasso a causa dell'impatto dei termini di scambio e dell'esposizione relativa alla Cina rispetto agli Stati Uniti."
#AUDUSD
#TradingCommunity
#CryptoPatience
Gli strateghi di TD Securities Prashant Newnaha e Alex Loo mantengono una posizione costruttiva sul Dollaro Australiano (AUD) nonostante il voto ravvicinato 5-4 della Banca Centrale Australiana (RBA). Uno shock positivo nei termini di scambio e l'aumento della copertura da parte dei fondi pensione australiani sostengono l'outperformance dell'AUD nel G10. Vedono la domanda AUD/USD intorno a 0,69 anche se la forza del USD si estende, mentre si aspettano che l'AUD/CAD si corregga al ribasso rispetto all'esposizione relativa tra Cina e Stati Uniti.
L'AUD sembra sovraperformare nello spazio G10
"Il supporto dei tassi potrebbe passare in secondo piano dopo la decisione ravvicinata 5-4 di oggi da parte del Consiglio per un aumento di 25 punti base. Manteniamo comunque il nostro bias per l'AUD come sovraperformante nello spazio G10 poiché beneficia di uno shock positivo nei termini di scambio - l'Australia è il terzo produttore di GNL al mondo, dietro il Qatar e gli Stati Uniti."
"L'aumento della copertura valutaria da parte dei fondi pensione australiani potrebbe anche ancorare l'AUD in questo ambiente geopolitico volatile."
"Se la forza di $USDE si estende questa settimana a causa di un'escalation nel conflitto del Medio Oriente, ci aspettiamo comunque che l'AUD/USD trovi una domanda migliore intorno al livello di 0,69."
"Sui cross, vediamo spazio per l'AUD/CAD per correggersi significativamente al ribasso a causa dell'impatto dei termini di scambio e dell'esposizione relativa alla Cina rispetto agli Stati Uniti."
#AUDUSD
#TradingCommunity
#CryptoPatience
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Aluminium: Gulf cuts tighten supply outlook – ING
#Aluminium : Gulf cuts tighten supply outlook – ING
ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum tighten the Aluminium supply outlook, with Gulf disruptions now affecting a notable share of regional production. ING has revised its Aluminium scenarios to align with its latest Oil market framework, slightly tightening market balance assumptions and flagging higher probabilities of prolonged disruption if shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Gulf disruptions lift supply risk
"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased shutdown of reduction lines 1-3, representing around 19% of its 1.6Mt annual capacity. Meanwhile, Qatalum is currently operating at roughly 60% of capacity."
"Aluminium smelters in the Gulf rely on continuous imports of raw materials such as alumina and typically hold around three to four weeks of inventories. This limited buffer leaves production vulnerable to shipping disruptions, particularly as alumina cannot be stored for extended periods. The region produces only around 3% of global alumina and about 1% of bauxite, leaving smelters highly dependent on seaborne supply."
"With the conflict now entering its third week, a large portion of this buffer may already have been drawn down. If shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist, additional curtailments could begin within the next one to two weeks as inventories are depleted."
"In our recent report, we highlighted how exposed aluminium markets are to disruptions in the Gulf and warned that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could push prices above $4,000/t under a severe disruption scenario. Even before the conflict, we were already constructive on aluminium prices, supported by China approaching its capacity ceiling, trade dislocations and the imminent shutdown of South 32’s Mozal already tightening supply."
"Under our base case scenario, shipping disruptions remain severe in March before gradually easing through the second quarter. In this case, current curtailments at Alba and Qatalum would remain relatively contained."
#aluminium
#AluminiumAlert
#CryptoMarket
ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum tighten the Aluminium supply outlook, with Gulf disruptions now affecting a notable share of regional production. ING has revised its Aluminium scenarios to align with its latest Oil market framework, slightly tightening market balance assumptions and flagging higher probabilities of prolonged disruption if shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Gulf disruptions lift supply risk
"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased shutdown of reduction lines 1-3, representing around 19% of its 1.6Mt annual capacity. Meanwhile, Qatalum is currently operating at roughly 60% of capacity."
"Aluminium smelters in the Gulf rely on continuous imports of raw materials such as alumina and typically hold around three to four weeks of inventories. This limited buffer leaves production vulnerable to shipping disruptions, particularly as alumina cannot be stored for extended periods. The region produces only around 3% of global alumina and about 1% of bauxite, leaving smelters highly dependent on seaborne supply."
"With the conflict now entering its third week, a large portion of this buffer may already have been drawn down. If shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist, additional curtailments could begin within the next one to two weeks as inventories are depleted."
"In our recent report, we highlighted how exposed aluminium markets are to disruptions in the Gulf and warned that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could push prices above $4,000/t under a severe disruption scenario. Even before the conflict, we were already constructive on aluminium prices, supported by China approaching its capacity ceiling, trade dislocations and the imminent shutdown of South 32’s Mozal already tightening supply."
"Under our base case scenario, shipping disruptions remain severe in March before gradually easing through the second quarter. In this case, current curtailments at Alba and Qatalum would remain relatively contained."
#aluminium
#AluminiumAlert
#CryptoMarket
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GBP/JPY holds steady as traders eye BoE and BoJ rate decisions
$GBP /JPY holds steady as traders eye BoE and BoJ rate decisions
GBP/JPY range-bound near 212.00 as markets await BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions.
UK-Japan interest rate differential continues to support an upside bias in the cross.
Technically, GBP/JPY holds above key moving averages, with a bearish flag in play but near-term momentum remaining positive.
The British Pound (GBP) trades broadly flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday as a thin economic calendar keeps price action subdued, with attention firmly shifting to the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions due on Thursday. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 212.15, holding close to the previous day’s high.
On the macro front, the wide interest rate differential between the UK and Japan continues to support an upside bias in GBP/JPY. The recent surge in Oil prices, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US–Iran war, is reinforcing inflation concerns and prompting a hawkish repricing of BoE rate expectations, providing additional support to the cross.
However, the BoJ faces a challenging backdrop, as persistent inflation may support further policy tightening, while higher energy costs could weigh on Japan’s economic growth given its status as a major energy importer, clouding the outlook.
Nevertheless, both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged at their upcoming meetings, with markets likely to focus on forward guidance for clues on how policymakers assess the economic impact of rising Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. However, the near-term bias remains tilted to the upside as the pair holds comfortably above the rising 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays above its midline, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the Signal line in positive territory, with a still-positive histogram that supports persistent, if measured, buying pressure.
On the downside, a clear break below the lower boundary of the flag near the 211.00-210.50 region could expose the 100-day SMA around 209.00, followed by the 200-day SMA near 204.14. On the upside, initial resistance is seen near 213.00, close to the upper boundary of the flag, with a sustained break opening the door toward the 215.00 area, the February 4 high.
#GBPJPY
#GBP
GBP/JPY range-bound near 212.00 as markets await BoE and BoJ monetary policy decisions.
UK-Japan interest rate differential continues to support an upside bias in the cross.
Technically, GBP/JPY holds above key moving averages, with a bearish flag in play but near-term momentum remaining positive.
The British Pound (GBP) trades broadly flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday as a thin economic calendar keeps price action subdued, with attention firmly shifting to the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions due on Thursday. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 212.15, holding close to the previous day’s high.
On the macro front, the wide interest rate differential between the UK and Japan continues to support an upside bias in GBP/JPY. The recent surge in Oil prices, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US–Iran war, is reinforcing inflation concerns and prompting a hawkish repricing of BoE rate expectations, providing additional support to the cross.
However, the BoJ faces a challenging backdrop, as persistent inflation may support further policy tightening, while higher energy costs could weigh on Japan’s economic growth given its status as a major energy importer, clouding the outlook.
Nevertheless, both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged at their upcoming meetings, with markets likely to focus on forward guidance for clues on how policymakers assess the economic impact of rising Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. However, the near-term bias remains tilted to the upside as the pair holds comfortably above the rising 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays above its midline, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the Signal line in positive territory, with a still-positive histogram that supports persistent, if measured, buying pressure.
On the downside, a clear break below the lower boundary of the flag near the 211.00-210.50 region could expose the 100-day SMA around 209.00, followed by the 200-day SMA near 204.14. On the upside, initial resistance is seen near 213.00, close to the upper boundary of the flag, with a sustained break opening the door toward the 215.00 area, the February 4 high.
#GBPJPY
#GBP
$XAU
Oro: il commercio di svalutazione affronta venti contrari politici – TD Securities
Il Senior Commodity Strategist di TD Securities, Daniel Ghali, avverte che l'oro è sempre più esposto poiché i rendimenti a 2 anni degli Stati Uniti rompono la loro tendenza al ribasso e il contesto macroeconomico cambia. Sostiene che il commercio di svalutazione è affollato, la crescita dell'offerta di moneta si è normalizzata, i mercati dei tassi vedono una pausa prolungata e le preoccupazioni per l'indipendenza della Fed si stanno attenuando, lasciando l'oro vulnerabile nonostante la continua, ma rallentata, domanda delle banche centrali.
Commercio di svalutazione affollato sotto pressione
"Per la prima volta in più di un anno, i rendimenti US2y sono usciti dalla loro tendenza al ribasso, riflettendo preoccupazioni relative alla politica della Fed in uno shock stagflazionistico."
"L'oro è vulnerabile: (1) Il commercio di svalutazione ha attirato una partecipazione immensa, con la nostra analisi dei filing 13F che suggerisce che l'oro non è più un attivo marginale per gli investitori istituzionali, dato che l'ETF dell'oro fisicamente supportato più popolare è ora detenuto in modo approssimativamente al 67% dagli investitori istituzionali rispetto all'ETF più popolare nella storia. Eppure, (2) la crescita dell'offerta di moneta sta seguendo un ritmo più commisurato con l'economia. (3) I mercati dei tassi stanno prezzando una pausa più prolungata, con poco margine rimanente fino al terminale. (4) Le preoccupazioni per l'indipendenza della Fed sono state alleviate da recenti ostacoli al processo di conferma del Presidente della Fed. (5) Una sentenza della Corte Suprema sul caso di Lisa Cook, che è centrale per le paure di indipendenza, dovrebbe essere risolta entro 2-3 mesi al massimo."
"Il commercio di svalutazione è vulnerabile e, mentre l'attività di acquisto delle banche centrali offre una via d'uscita per gli investitori, il ritmo dell'attività di acquisto del settore ufficiale è diminuito nell'ultimo anno. È importante notare che il conflitto in Medio Oriente alimenterà ulteriori cali negli acquisti del settore ufficiale, associati all'impatto della guerra sulle economie delle nazioni del Golfo."
#XAU
#XAUUSD
#CryptoMarket
Oro: il commercio di svalutazione affronta venti contrari politici – TD Securities
Il Senior Commodity Strategist di TD Securities, Daniel Ghali, avverte che l'oro è sempre più esposto poiché i rendimenti a 2 anni degli Stati Uniti rompono la loro tendenza al ribasso e il contesto macroeconomico cambia. Sostiene che il commercio di svalutazione è affollato, la crescita dell'offerta di moneta si è normalizzata, i mercati dei tassi vedono una pausa prolungata e le preoccupazioni per l'indipendenza della Fed si stanno attenuando, lasciando l'oro vulnerabile nonostante la continua, ma rallentata, domanda delle banche centrali.
Commercio di svalutazione affollato sotto pressione
"Per la prima volta in più di un anno, i rendimenti US2y sono usciti dalla loro tendenza al ribasso, riflettendo preoccupazioni relative alla politica della Fed in uno shock stagflazionistico."
"L'oro è vulnerabile: (1) Il commercio di svalutazione ha attirato una partecipazione immensa, con la nostra analisi dei filing 13F che suggerisce che l'oro non è più un attivo marginale per gli investitori istituzionali, dato che l'ETF dell'oro fisicamente supportato più popolare è ora detenuto in modo approssimativamente al 67% dagli investitori istituzionali rispetto all'ETF più popolare nella storia. Eppure, (2) la crescita dell'offerta di moneta sta seguendo un ritmo più commisurato con l'economia. (3) I mercati dei tassi stanno prezzando una pausa più prolungata, con poco margine rimanente fino al terminale. (4) Le preoccupazioni per l'indipendenza della Fed sono state alleviate da recenti ostacoli al processo di conferma del Presidente della Fed. (5) Una sentenza della Corte Suprema sul caso di Lisa Cook, che è centrale per le paure di indipendenza, dovrebbe essere risolta entro 2-3 mesi al massimo."
"Il commercio di svalutazione è vulnerabile e, mentre l'attività di acquisto delle banche centrali offre una via d'uscita per gli investitori, il ritmo dell'attività di acquisto del settore ufficiale è diminuito nell'ultimo anno. È importante notare che il conflitto in Medio Oriente alimenterà ulteriori cali negli acquisti del settore ufficiale, associati all'impatto della guerra sulle economie delle nazioni del Golfo."
#XAU
#XAUUSD
#CryptoMarket
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Crypto market tests breakout above key resistance
#Crypto market tests breakout above key resistance
Market overview
#Cryptomarket capitalisation increased by a further 2.7% in the last 24 hours, reaching $2.54 trillion. At its peak earlier in the day, the market climbed to $2.58 trillion, its highest since early February. This indicates a period of consolidation above the 50-day moving average, an attempt to break free from the correction pattern following the decline, and a move above the 61.8% retracement level of the initial movement.
The sentiment index gained 5 points to reach 28 for the day, breaking out of the extreme fear zone and hitting its highest level since late January. This indicator's positive signal complements the favourable technical picture.
Bitcoin rose to $76K, later retreating to $74K, where it is trading as the European session begins. The market is currently testing the rally's stability. Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional markets has shifted: gold and stock indices closed higher on Monday, while the dollar index dived back below 100.
News background
According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds rose by $1.1 billion last week, marking the third week of inflows after five weeks of outflows. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $793 million, in Ethereum by $315 million, in Solana by $9 million, and in Chainlink by $3 million.
Since the beginning of the Iranian crisis, the total assets under management (AuM) in global crypto ETFs have grown by 9.4% to $140 billion, according to CoinShares.
Over the past 30 days, users have withdrawn more than 32,060 BTC from crypto exchanges. Only 2.44 million BTC remain on the balance sheets of trading platforms, the lowest figure in recent years, according to Crypto Patel.
Ethereum has outpaced Bitcoin in growth rates amid the return of institutional investors. According to Arkham, Erik Voorhees, the former CEO of the ShapeShift crypto exchange, purchased 24,968 ETH worth $56.5 million after a one-year hiatus.
Strategy bought a further 22,337 $BTC ($1.57 billion) last week at an average price of $70,946 per coin. This is the largest bitcoin purchase since November 2024. Strategy now owns 761,068 BTC, bought for $57.61 billion at an average price of $75,696 per bitcoin.
BitMine acquired approximately 60,000 ETH over the past week. The company's reserves now total 4.59 million ETH, representing 3.81% of the Ethereum market supply. BitMine aims to accumulate 5% of all ether.
Market overview
#Cryptomarket capitalisation increased by a further 2.7% in the last 24 hours, reaching $2.54 trillion. At its peak earlier in the day, the market climbed to $2.58 trillion, its highest since early February. This indicates a period of consolidation above the 50-day moving average, an attempt to break free from the correction pattern following the decline, and a move above the 61.8% retracement level of the initial movement.
The sentiment index gained 5 points to reach 28 for the day, breaking out of the extreme fear zone and hitting its highest level since late January. This indicator's positive signal complements the favourable technical picture.
Bitcoin rose to $76K, later retreating to $74K, where it is trading as the European session begins. The market is currently testing the rally's stability. Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional markets has shifted: gold and stock indices closed higher on Monday, while the dollar index dived back below 100.
News background
According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds rose by $1.1 billion last week, marking the third week of inflows after five weeks of outflows. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $793 million, in Ethereum by $315 million, in Solana by $9 million, and in Chainlink by $3 million.
Since the beginning of the Iranian crisis, the total assets under management (AuM) in global crypto ETFs have grown by 9.4% to $140 billion, according to CoinShares.
Over the past 30 days, users have withdrawn more than 32,060 BTC from crypto exchanges. Only 2.44 million BTC remain on the balance sheets of trading platforms, the lowest figure in recent years, according to Crypto Patel.
Ethereum has outpaced Bitcoin in growth rates amid the return of institutional investors. According to Arkham, Erik Voorhees, the former CEO of the ShapeShift crypto exchange, purchased 24,968 ETH worth $56.5 million after a one-year hiatus.
Strategy bought a further 22,337 $BTC ($1.57 billion) last week at an average price of $70,946 per coin. This is the largest bitcoin purchase since November 2024. Strategy now owns 761,068 BTC, bought for $57.61 billion at an average price of $75,696 per bitcoin.
BitMine acquired approximately 60,000 ETH over the past week. The company's reserves now total 4.59 million ETH, representing 3.81% of the Ethereum market supply. BitMine aims to accumulate 5% of all ether.
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Why is Bitcoin recovering while the Middle East conflict jolts global markets?
Why is Bitcoin recovering while the Middle East conflict jolts global markets?
$BTC breaks out of range, rising to a 6-week high of 76k.
BTC shows resilience despite the ongoing Iran war.
Institutional and corporate demand are absorbing supply.
Attention turns to the Federal Reserve rate decision tomorrow.
BTC technical analysis.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have emerged as relative winners since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, standing out against a backdrop of rising geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
BTC briefly pushed above the key $75,000 level during the Asian session, bringing gains since the start of the conflict to nearly 14%. Prices have since eased slightly but remain elevated near $74,000 at the time of writing.
This resilience marks a sharp shift from the previous trend, in which Bitcoin fell sharply from its October peak of $126,000, losing roughly half its value over four months.
A different reaction to macro stress
The current rally is notable given the broader market environment. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up by around 40% to above $100 per barrel, while global equities have declined and Treasury yields have risen.
Normally, this combination — higher oil, rising yields, and falling equities — would weigh heavily on risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, BTC has held firm and even rallied.
This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may be starting to behave differently in periods of macro stress. Rather than falling alongside other risk assets, it is showing signs of resilience as institutional and corporate demand absorb supply
Institutional demand and positioning shift
Flows into crypto support this view. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $1.5 billion in inflows so far this month, according to SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs have also seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with $ETH climbing back above $2,300.
Interestingly, this demand has come despite sentiment indicators remaining weak. The Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” suggesting that retail investors remain cautious even as institutional capital returns.
In other words, while retail positioning appears defensive, larger investors are accumulating.
Additional support has come from derivatives markets. Traders who had positioned for Bitcoin to fall below the $55,000–$60,000 range have begun unwinding those positions. As these downside hedges are closed, selling pressure has eased, helping support the recent rally.
From recovery to momentum
What initially appeared to be a relief bounce is increasingly looking like a structurally supported recovery. With institutional inflows building and downside positioning unwinding, the rally is beginning to gain momentum. Whether it can sustain a breakout from its recent range remains to be seen.
What comes next?
Attention now turns back to the macro outlook, with the Federal Reserve rate decision due tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
The focus will be on updated projections and the dot plot to gauge how policymakers assess the impact of higher energy prices and geopolitical risks on inflation and growth.
Markets are currently pricing in one rate cut later this year. However, a more hawkish Fed — particularly one that signals no cuts — could push yields higher and weigh on Bitcoin in the near term
BTC technical analysis
The longer-term BTC picture remains bearish as the price trades below its multi-month falling trendline and 200 SMA. However, this could shift to a bullish trend if BTC extends its recent breakout.
BTC has broken out of its recent 65k-71k range, pushing above the 74k March before running into resistance at 76k, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126k high and the 59.5k low. The price has eased back slightly to 74k.
Buyers, supported by the rise above the 50 SMA and the RSI above 50 will look to rise above 76k to extend gains towards 80k, the round number, the November low, and the falling trendline. Above here, 85k comes into focus, the 38.2% Fib retracement. A rise above here puts the longer-term bias on a firmer footing.
Support is seen at 71k, the 50 SMA. A break below 65k will bring 60k into focus, extending the longer-term bearish trend.
#bitcoinrecover
#MiddleEast
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
$BTC breaks out of range, rising to a 6-week high of 76k.
BTC shows resilience despite the ongoing Iran war.
Institutional and corporate demand are absorbing supply.
Attention turns to the Federal Reserve rate decision tomorrow.
BTC technical analysis.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have emerged as relative winners since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, standing out against a backdrop of rising geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
BTC briefly pushed above the key $75,000 level during the Asian session, bringing gains since the start of the conflict to nearly 14%. Prices have since eased slightly but remain elevated near $74,000 at the time of writing.
This resilience marks a sharp shift from the previous trend, in which Bitcoin fell sharply from its October peak of $126,000, losing roughly half its value over four months.
A different reaction to macro stress
The current rally is notable given the broader market environment. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up by around 40% to above $100 per barrel, while global equities have declined and Treasury yields have risen.
Normally, this combination — higher oil, rising yields, and falling equities — would weigh heavily on risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, BTC has held firm and even rallied.
This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may be starting to behave differently in periods of macro stress. Rather than falling alongside other risk assets, it is showing signs of resilience as institutional and corporate demand absorb supply
Institutional demand and positioning shift
Flows into crypto support this view. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $1.5 billion in inflows so far this month, according to SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs have also seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with $ETH climbing back above $2,300.
Interestingly, this demand has come despite sentiment indicators remaining weak. The Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” suggesting that retail investors remain cautious even as institutional capital returns.
In other words, while retail positioning appears defensive, larger investors are accumulating.
Additional support has come from derivatives markets. Traders who had positioned for Bitcoin to fall below the $55,000–$60,000 range have begun unwinding those positions. As these downside hedges are closed, selling pressure has eased, helping support the recent rally.
From recovery to momentum
What initially appeared to be a relief bounce is increasingly looking like a structurally supported recovery. With institutional inflows building and downside positioning unwinding, the rally is beginning to gain momentum. Whether it can sustain a breakout from its recent range remains to be seen.
What comes next?
Attention now turns back to the macro outlook, with the Federal Reserve rate decision due tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
The focus will be on updated projections and the dot plot to gauge how policymakers assess the impact of higher energy prices and geopolitical risks on inflation and growth.
Markets are currently pricing in one rate cut later this year. However, a more hawkish Fed — particularly one that signals no cuts — could push yields higher and weigh on Bitcoin in the near term
BTC technical analysis
The longer-term BTC picture remains bearish as the price trades below its multi-month falling trendline and 200 SMA. However, this could shift to a bullish trend if BTC extends its recent breakout.
BTC has broken out of its recent 65k-71k range, pushing above the 74k March before running into resistance at 76k, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126k high and the 59.5k low. The price has eased back slightly to 74k.
Buyers, supported by the rise above the 50 SMA and the RSI above 50 will look to rise above 76k to extend gains towards 80k, the round number, the November low, and the falling trendline. Above here, 85k comes into focus, the 38.2% Fib retracement. A rise above here puts the longer-term bias on a firmer footing.
Support is seen at 71k, the 50 SMA. A break below 65k will bring 60k into focus, extending the longer-term bearish trend.
#bitcoinrecover
#MiddleEast
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Settori statunitensi, Oracle ha perso slancio, Oro in calo, $BITCOIN
ottimista
Settori Petrolifero e Utilità ottimisti. Finanziari ribassisti. Il rimbalzo di Oracle ha perso slancio. $EUR
supporto chiave USD. USDJPY punta a 162? Il petrolio greggio e il gas naturale dell'UE sono volatili ma ottimisti. Oro e Argento in calo.
#BTC
#USdollarVsBitcoin
#crudeoil
ottimista
Settori Petrolifero e Utilità ottimisti. Finanziari ribassisti. Il rimbalzo di Oracle ha perso slancio. $EUR
supporto chiave USD. USDJPY punta a 162? Il petrolio greggio e il gas naturale dell'UE sono volatili ma ottimisti. Oro e Argento in calo.
#BTC
#USdollarVsBitcoin
#crudeoil
Forex Oggi: $US
Il dollaro si stabilizza mentre l'umore peggiora a causa dell'aumento dei prezzi del petrolio
I mercati diventano avversi al rischio martedì mentre i prezzi del petrolio greggio aumentano di nuovo. Di conseguenza, il dollaro statunitense (USD) beneficia dei flussi verso i beni rifugio e mantiene la sua posizione dopo il crollo di lunedì. Il calendario economico europeo presenterà i dati sulla fiducia ZEW dalla Germania. Nella seconda metà della giornata, le Vendite di Case in Attesa di Febbraio e i dati sul Cambiamento dell'Occupazione ADP media di 4 settimane dagli Stati Uniti saranno osservati da vicino dai partecipanti al mercato. Più importante ancora, la riunione politica della Federal Reserve di due giorni inizierà martedì e la banca centrale statunitense annuncerà la decisione sui tassi d'interesse e pubblicherà il riepilogo rivisto delle Proiezioni Economiche (SEP) mercoledì.
#OilPrice
#USDollarWarning
#crudeoil
Il dollaro si stabilizza mentre l'umore peggiora a causa dell'aumento dei prezzi del petrolio
I mercati diventano avversi al rischio martedì mentre i prezzi del petrolio greggio aumentano di nuovo. Di conseguenza, il dollaro statunitense (USD) beneficia dei flussi verso i beni rifugio e mantiene la sua posizione dopo il crollo di lunedì. Il calendario economico europeo presenterà i dati sulla fiducia ZEW dalla Germania. Nella seconda metà della giornata, le Vendite di Case in Attesa di Febbraio e i dati sul Cambiamento dell'Occupazione ADP media di 4 settimane dagli Stati Uniti saranno osservati da vicino dai partecipanti al mercato. Più importante ancora, la riunione politica della Federal Reserve di due giorni inizierà martedì e la banca centrale statunitense annuncerà la decisione sui tassi d'interesse e pubblicherà il riepilogo rivisto delle Proiezioni Economiche (SEP) mercoledì.
#OilPrice
#USDollarWarning
#crudeoil
IDR: BI bias accomodante con rischi dello Stretto di Hormuz – MUFG
L'Analista Senior di Valute di MUFG, Michael Wan, osserva che la Banca Indonesia beneficia dello status di esportatore netto di materie prime dell'Indonesia, ma affronta condizioni macroeconomiche iniziali deboli e vincoli fiscali mentre il petrolio aumenta. I prezzi energetici più elevati minacciano i costi dei sussidi e il limite del deficit del 3% del PIL. MUFG si aspetta che la BI mantenga i tassi con un bias accomodante, lasciando l'IDR FX e le obbligazioni vulnerabili durante la crisi dello Stretto di Hormuz.
BI in attesa mentre l'IDR sembra sotto-performante
"Per la Banca Indonesia, la buona notizia è che l'Indonesia è un esportatore netto di materie prime, e quindi anche se importa petrolio e gas, se i prezzi delle materie prime, comprese le palme e il carbone, dovessero aumentare in modo più generale, potrebbe beneficiarne."
"Tuttavia, la chiave è che il punto di partenza delle condizioni macroeconomiche, inclusi il rischio di credito sovrano e la sostenibilità fiscale per l'Indonesia, non è ideale, e con i prezzi del petrolio più elevati che probabilmente aumentano la pressione sui sussidi per i carburanti, aumentare il limite del deficit di bilancio del 3% del PIL potrebbe diventare più difficile da mantenere in un evento di rischio tail di picchi sostenuti dei prezzi del petrolio."
"Vediamo la BI mantenere i tassi fermi in questo incontro, ma il bias è comunque accomodante per la BI, e pertanto, da una prospettiva di FX e tassi, pensiamo che sia l'IDR FX che le obbligazioni siano inclini a sotto-performare nel mezzo della crisi dello SoH."
#idr
#HormuzStrait
#MUFG
L'Analista Senior di Valute di MUFG, Michael Wan, osserva che la Banca Indonesia beneficia dello status di esportatore netto di materie prime dell'Indonesia, ma affronta condizioni macroeconomiche iniziali deboli e vincoli fiscali mentre il petrolio aumenta. I prezzi energetici più elevati minacciano i costi dei sussidi e il limite del deficit del 3% del PIL. MUFG si aspetta che la BI mantenga i tassi con un bias accomodante, lasciando l'IDR FX e le obbligazioni vulnerabili durante la crisi dello Stretto di Hormuz.
BI in attesa mentre l'IDR sembra sotto-performante
"Per la Banca Indonesia, la buona notizia è che l'Indonesia è un esportatore netto di materie prime, e quindi anche se importa petrolio e gas, se i prezzi delle materie prime, comprese le palme e il carbone, dovessero aumentare in modo più generale, potrebbe beneficiarne."
"Tuttavia, la chiave è che il punto di partenza delle condizioni macroeconomiche, inclusi il rischio di credito sovrano e la sostenibilità fiscale per l'Indonesia, non è ideale, e con i prezzi del petrolio più elevati che probabilmente aumentano la pressione sui sussidi per i carburanti, aumentare il limite del deficit di bilancio del 3% del PIL potrebbe diventare più difficile da mantenere in un evento di rischio tail di picchi sostenuti dei prezzi del petrolio."
"Vediamo la BI mantenere i tassi fermi in questo incontro, ma il bias è comunque accomodante per la BI, e pertanto, da una prospettiva di FX e tassi, pensiamo che sia l'IDR FX che le obbligazioni siano inclini a sotto-performare nel mezzo della crisi dello SoH."
#idr
#HormuzStrait
#MUFG
$GBP /JPY sale a circa 212,00, gli investitori attendono la politica monetaria della BoJ e della BoE
GBP/JPY sale a circa 212,00 in mezzo alla debolezza dello Yen giapponese.
Sia la BoJ che la BoE sono previste mantenere i tassi di interesse stabili giovedì.
Ueda della BoJ rimane fiducioso che i prezzi e i salari continueranno ad aumentare moderatamente.
La coppia GBP/JPY sale a circa 212,00 durante la prima sessione di trading europea di martedì. Il cross sale mentre lo Yen giapponese (JPY) sottoperforma in generale, anche se il governatore della Banca del Giappone (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda esprime fiducia che i prezzi e i salari stanno aumentando moderatamente, e che "l'inflazione di base sta accelerando gradualmente verso l'obiettivo del 2% della banca centrale".
#GBP
#GBPJPY
#GBPJPYAnalysis
GBP/JPY sale a circa 212,00 in mezzo alla debolezza dello Yen giapponese.
Sia la BoJ che la BoE sono previste mantenere i tassi di interesse stabili giovedì.
Ueda della BoJ rimane fiducioso che i prezzi e i salari continueranno ad aumentare moderatamente.
La coppia GBP/JPY sale a circa 212,00 durante la prima sessione di trading europea di martedì. Il cross sale mentre lo Yen giapponese (JPY) sottoperforma in generale, anche se il governatore della Banca del Giappone (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda esprime fiducia che i prezzi e i salari stanno aumentando moderatamente, e che "l'inflazione di base sta accelerando gradualmente verso l'obiettivo del 2% della banca centrale".
#GBP
#GBPJPY
#GBPJPYAnalysis
L'alleanza dell'intelligenza superartificiale è in calo del 4% martedì, recuperando dopo il rally del 20% di lunedì.
Il Protocollo Virtuals si mantiene sopra la EMA a 100 giorni martedì dopo un aumento del 6% di lunedì.
Bittensor si stabilizza intorno ai $280 martedì, mantenendosi sopra la EMA a 200 giorni e assicurando i guadagni del 55% della settimana scorsa.
Intelligenza Artificiale $AI
le criptovalute, come l'alleanza dell'intelligenza superartificiale (FET), il Protocollo Virtuals (VIRTUAL) e Bittensor (TAO), stanno prendendo un respiro martedì, dopo i rispettivi rally della settimana scorsa.
Le difficoltà vicino a $0.2500 limitano il rimbalzo di FET
L'alleanza dell'intelligenza superartificiale è in calo del 4% al momento della stampa martedì, recuperando dopo un aumento del 20% di lunedì. La tendenza a breve termine diventa cautamente rialzista poiché FET è rimbalzato da $0.1400 al massimo di lunedì a $0.2569.
Il ritracciamento di Fibonacci del 78.6% a $0.2622, misurato dal minimo di $0.13 al massimo di $0.31, funge da resistenza sopraelevata, limitando il potenziale rialzo verso la Media Mobile Esponenziale (EMA) a 200 giorni a $0.3082.
FET ora si trova leggermente sopra la EMA a 100 giorni, inquadrando questo avanzamento come una prima ripresa all'interno di una fase di discesa più ampia.
Il Convergenza Divergenza della Media Mobile (MACD) scambia sopra il suo segnale e la linea zero, con un istogramma positivo ed espandente che indica un rafforzamento della spinta rialzista. L'Indice di Forza Relativa (RSI) a 72 mostra condizioni di ipercompravenduto che potrebbero rallentare l'ascesa senza però rompere ancora il tono rialzista.
#AI
#AICryptoWatch
#AITrading
Il Protocollo Virtuals si mantiene sopra la EMA a 100 giorni martedì dopo un aumento del 6% di lunedì.
Bittensor si stabilizza intorno ai $280 martedì, mantenendosi sopra la EMA a 200 giorni e assicurando i guadagni del 55% della settimana scorsa.
Intelligenza Artificiale $AI
le criptovalute, come l'alleanza dell'intelligenza superartificiale (FET), il Protocollo Virtuals (VIRTUAL) e Bittensor (TAO), stanno prendendo un respiro martedì, dopo i rispettivi rally della settimana scorsa.
Le difficoltà vicino a $0.2500 limitano il rimbalzo di FET
L'alleanza dell'intelligenza superartificiale è in calo del 4% al momento della stampa martedì, recuperando dopo un aumento del 20% di lunedì. La tendenza a breve termine diventa cautamente rialzista poiché FET è rimbalzato da $0.1400 al massimo di lunedì a $0.2569.
Il ritracciamento di Fibonacci del 78.6% a $0.2622, misurato dal minimo di $0.13 al massimo di $0.31, funge da resistenza sopraelevata, limitando il potenziale rialzo verso la Media Mobile Esponenziale (EMA) a 200 giorni a $0.3082.
FET ora si trova leggermente sopra la EMA a 100 giorni, inquadrando questo avanzamento come una prima ripresa all'interno di una fase di discesa più ampia.
Il Convergenza Divergenza della Media Mobile (MACD) scambia sopra il suo segnale e la linea zero, con un istogramma positivo ed espandente che indica un rafforzamento della spinta rialzista. L'Indice di Forza Relativa (RSI) a 72 mostra condizioni di ipercompravenduto che potrebbero rallentare l'ascesa senza però rompere ancora il tono rialzista.
#AI
#AICryptoWatch
#AITrading
🚨 $SOL
Impostazione: Silenzio Prima dell'Impatto? 🚨
Il mercato sembra calmo… ma la struttura 4H sta lampeggiando un potenziale crollo che la maggior parte dei trader sta trascurando.
🔻 Coppia: $SOL /USDT
📉 Bias: SHORT
🎯 Livelli di Trading:
• Zona di Entrata: 93.10 – 93.61
• Stop Loss: 95.80
• Obiettivi:
TP1 → 91.52
TP2 → 90.29
TP3 → 88.45
⚠️ Perché questa impostazione si distingue:
• 📊 Allineamento della Tendenza: la struttura 1D rimane ribassista — massimi inferiori intatti
• 🎯 Zona di Precisione: il prezzo sta reagendo in una chiave area di offerta 4H (~93.3)
• 🌪 Carico di Volatilità: l'ATR suggerisce che un forte movimento si sta preparando
• ⚖️ R:R Pulito: invalidazione stretta con obiettivi al ribasso a più livelli
🧠 Cosa sta osservando il denaro intelligente:
Non è solo un short casuale — è un gioco di liquidità.
Se $SOL perde questa zona, l'accelerazione al ribasso potrebbe essere brusca e veloce.
❓ La vera domanda:
È questa l'ultima gamba verso sotto i 90$…
o i tori stanno preparando una trappola prima di una compressione violenta?
🔥 Pensiero Finale:
I movimenti più grandi arrivano quando il mercato sembra più tranquillo.
In questo momento… $SOL sta sussurrando prima di decidere di urlare.
#solana
#sol
#SOLUSDT
Impostazione: Silenzio Prima dell'Impatto? 🚨
Il mercato sembra calmo… ma la struttura 4H sta lampeggiando un potenziale crollo che la maggior parte dei trader sta trascurando.
🔻 Coppia: $SOL /USDT
📉 Bias: SHORT
🎯 Livelli di Trading:
• Zona di Entrata: 93.10 – 93.61
• Stop Loss: 95.80
• Obiettivi:
TP1 → 91.52
TP2 → 90.29
TP3 → 88.45
⚠️ Perché questa impostazione si distingue:
• 📊 Allineamento della Tendenza: la struttura 1D rimane ribassista — massimi inferiori intatti
• 🎯 Zona di Precisione: il prezzo sta reagendo in una chiave area di offerta 4H (~93.3)
• 🌪 Carico di Volatilità: l'ATR suggerisce che un forte movimento si sta preparando
• ⚖️ R:R Pulito: invalidazione stretta con obiettivi al ribasso a più livelli
🧠 Cosa sta osservando il denaro intelligente:
Non è solo un short casuale — è un gioco di liquidità.
Se $SOL perde questa zona, l'accelerazione al ribasso potrebbe essere brusca e veloce.
❓ La vera domanda:
È questa l'ultima gamba verso sotto i 90$…
o i tori stanno preparando una trappola prima di una compressione violenta?
🔥 Pensiero Finale:
I movimenti più grandi arrivano quando il mercato sembra più tranquillo.
In questo momento… $SOL sta sussurrando prima di decidere di urlare.
#solana
#sol
#SOLUSDT
Briefing del mattino: EUR/USD è aumentato, ma potrebbe limitare il suo rialzo
Briefing del mattino: $EUR /USD è aumentato, ma potrebbe limitare il suo rialzo
L'indice del dollaro si mantiene al di sotto della resistenza immediata vicino a 100.54, ma il calo attuale potrebbe fermarsi a 99 per un rimbalzo verso 101-101.50. L'euro è aumentato, ma potrebbe limitare il suo rialzo a 1.1550-1.16 prima di tornare a 1.14. EURINR è aumentato come previsto e potrebbe continuare a salire verso 107/108 mentre è sopra il supporto vicino a 105-105.50. EURJPY è stabile sopra 183 e può salire nella regione 180-185 mentre USDJPY ha quasi raggiunto il test di 160, da dove è probabile un rifiuto. USDCNY è rialzista a 6.90/95 mentre è sopra 6.85. L'Aussie si dirige verso 0.71/72 mentre la sterlina è scesa sotto 1.33 e se si mantiene può dirigersi verso 1.32 e negare il nostro precedente aumento previsto verso 1.35/36 rispettivamente. L'USDINR potrebbe negoziare nella regione 92.00-92.50 nel breve termine a meno che non si veda una rottura al rialzo.
L'indice del dollaro si mantiene al di sotto della resistenza immediata vicino a 100.54, ma il calo attuale potrebbe fermarsi a 99 per un rimbalzo verso 101-101.50. L'euro è aumentato, ma potrebbe limitare il suo rialzo a 1.1550-1.16 prima di tornare a 1.14. EURINR è aumentato come previsto e potrebbe continuare a salire verso 107/108 mentre è sopra il supporto vicino a 105-105.50. EURJPY è stabile sopra 183 e può salire nella regione 180-185 mentre USDJPY ha quasi raggiunto il test di 160, da dove è probabile un rifiuto. USDCNY è rialzista a 6.90/95 mentre è sopra 6.85. L'Aussie si dirige verso 0.71/72 mentre la sterlina è scesa sotto 1.33 e se si mantiene può dirigersi verso 1.32 e negare il nostro precedente aumento previsto verso 1.35/36 rispettivamente. L'USDINR potrebbe negoziare nella regione 92.00-92.50 nel breve termine a meno che non si veda una rottura al rialzo.
Visualizza traduzione
Australian Dollar declines after RBA raises interest rate by 25 bps to 4.10%
$AUD /USD trades in negative territory around 0.7060 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
RBA raised its OCR by 25 bps to 4.10% at its March meeting, as expected.
The Fed is set to hold interest rates steady at its March meeting on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.7060 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar $AUD edges lower against the US Dollar $USDE after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Traders will keep an eye on the RBA press conference later on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT for more cues about the interest rate outlook.
As widely expected, the RBA hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 3.85% after concluding its March monetary policy meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock is set to deliver a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision later in the day. Any hawkish remarks from policymakers could boost the Aussie against the Greenback in the near term.
All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the current range of 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
Rising energy prices since the beginning of the Iran war have led analysts to push back their rate-cut expectations. Goldman Sachs economists scrapped their forecast for a Fed rate cut in June based on “a higher inflation path.” They predicted cuts in September and December, versus June and September previously.
#AUDUSD
#usd
#CryptocurrencyWealth
$AUD /USD trades in negative territory around 0.7060 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
RBA raised its OCR by 25 bps to 4.10% at its March meeting, as expected.
The Fed is set to hold interest rates steady at its March meeting on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.7060 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar $AUD edges lower against the US Dollar $USDE after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Traders will keep an eye on the RBA press conference later on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT for more cues about the interest rate outlook.
As widely expected, the RBA hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 3.85% after concluding its March monetary policy meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock is set to deliver a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision later in the day. Any hawkish remarks from policymakers could boost the Aussie against the Greenback in the near term.
All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the current range of 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
Rising energy prices since the beginning of the Iran war have led analysts to push back their rate-cut expectations. Goldman Sachs economists scrapped their forecast for a Fed rate cut in June based on “a higher inflation path.” They predicted cuts in September and December, versus June and September previously.
#AUDUSD
#usd
#CryptocurrencyWealth
Visualizza traduzione
Gold rises on Middle East tensions; inflation fears temper rate cut bets and cap gains
Gold rises on Middle East tensions; inflation fears temper rate cut bets and cap gains
Gold attracts some safe-haven flows amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Inflation fears temper Fed rate cut bets, underpinning the $USDE and capping the commodity.
Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of this week’s key central bank events.
As the war enters its third week, Iran continues to attack civilian infrastructure – airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial hubs – in the six Gulf states with missiles and drones. Furthermore, the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key chokepoint for a fifth of global oil supply – remains supportive of elevated Crude prices. This continues to fuel inflationary concerns, which could force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer and even consider rate hikes. The outlook, in turn, caps the non-yielding Gold and warrants caution for bulls.
Meanwhile, hawkish implications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East revive the US Dollar (USD) demand following the overnight pullback from its highest level since May 2025 and contribute to keeping a lid on the $XAU /USD pair. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Moreover, policy updates by other major central banks – the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of England (BoE) – should provide a fresh impetus to the Gold during the latter part of the week.
Gold seems vulnerable as breakdown below 200-period SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level remains in play
The recent breakdown through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March move up favors the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) remains below zero with the line under its signal and a negative histogram, signaling persistent downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 leans toward the weak side of neutral and aligns with sellers retaining the initiative for now.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $5,040, followed by the 200-period SMA around $5,063, with a break above this zone needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $5,186. On the downside, initial support is located at the psychological $5,000 area, ahead of the recent lows near $4,995–$4,985, where failure would expose deeper retracement toward the 50.0% retracement level at $4,921.41. A sustained close back above the 200-period SMA would weaken the bearish tone, while continued rejection below $5,040 keeps the focus on lower supports.
$XAU /USD 4-hour chart
#XAU
#XAUUSD
Gold attracts some safe-haven flows amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Inflation fears temper Fed rate cut bets, underpinning the $USDE and capping the commodity.
Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of this week’s key central bank events.
As the war enters its third week, Iran continues to attack civilian infrastructure – airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial hubs – in the six Gulf states with missiles and drones. Furthermore, the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key chokepoint for a fifth of global oil supply – remains supportive of elevated Crude prices. This continues to fuel inflationary concerns, which could force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer and even consider rate hikes. The outlook, in turn, caps the non-yielding Gold and warrants caution for bulls.
Meanwhile, hawkish implications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East revive the US Dollar (USD) demand following the overnight pullback from its highest level since May 2025 and contribute to keeping a lid on the $XAU /USD pair. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Moreover, policy updates by other major central banks – the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of England (BoE) – should provide a fresh impetus to the Gold during the latter part of the week.
Gold seems vulnerable as breakdown below 200-period SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level remains in play
The recent breakdown through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March move up favors the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) remains below zero with the line under its signal and a negative histogram, signaling persistent downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 leans toward the weak side of neutral and aligns with sellers retaining the initiative for now.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $5,040, followed by the 200-period SMA around $5,063, with a break above this zone needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $5,186. On the downside, initial support is located at the psychological $5,000 area, ahead of the recent lows near $4,995–$4,985, where failure would expose deeper retracement toward the 50.0% retracement level at $4,921.41. A sustained close back above the 200-period SMA would weaken the bearish tone, while continued rejection below $5,040 keeps the focus on lower supports.
$XAU /USD 4-hour chart
#XAU
#XAUUSD
EUR/USD scivola sotto 1.1500 mentre il USD aumenta;
$EUR /USD scivola sotto 1.1500 mentre il USD aumenta; l'attenzione rimane sulle riunioni delle banche centrali
EUR/USD attira nuovi venditori poiché le scommesse ridotte su un taglio dei tassi da parte della Fed aiutano a rivitalizzare la domanda di USD.
Le preoccupazioni per la crisi energetica minano l'euro e contribuiscono a limitare il cambio.
Il ribasso sembra essere attutito in attesa delle decisioni di politica monetaria FOMC/ECB alla fine di questa settimana.
La $EUR /USD fatica a capitalizzare il buon recupero del giorno precedente dall'area 1.1415-1.1410, o dalla vicinanza del livello più basso da luglio 2025, e scivola verso il basso durante la sessione asiatica di martedì. I prezzi spot attualmente scambiano appena sotto la soglia psicologica di 1.1500, anche se il ribasso sembra essere attutito in vista dei rischi degli eventi chiave delle banche centrali.
EUR/USD attira nuovi venditori poiché le scommesse ridotte su un taglio dei tassi da parte della Fed aiutano a rivitalizzare la domanda di USD.
Le preoccupazioni per la crisi energetica minano l'euro e contribuiscono a limitare il cambio.
Il ribasso sembra essere attutito in attesa delle decisioni di politica monetaria FOMC/ECB alla fine di questa settimana.
La $EUR /USD fatica a capitalizzare il buon recupero del giorno precedente dall'area 1.1415-1.1410, o dalla vicinanza del livello più basso da luglio 2025, e scivola verso il basso durante la sessione asiatica di martedì. I prezzi spot attualmente scambiano appena sotto la soglia psicologica di 1.1500, anche se il ribasso sembra essere attutito in vista dei rischi degli eventi chiave delle banche centrali.
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Australian Dollar inches lower ahead of RBA policy decision
AUD/USD slips after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session.
Australian Dollar may find support as the RBA’s expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Tuesday.
The US Dollar struggled as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz eased.
$AUD /USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day, driven by rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
The RBA is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%, potentially becoming the first G10 central bank to resume tightening. Market participants will closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.
A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.10% in March, with the possibility of another increase to 4.35% later this year. Westpac’s shift toward forecasting back-to-back rate hikes reinforces the view that the March meeting is “live,” which could lend support to Australian bond yields and the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, the $US
Dollar (USD) has struggled amid easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, its downside may be limited as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year fade due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Concerns that surging crude oil prices could drive inflation higher have dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing.
#AUDUSD
#US
#DollarDominance
AUD/USD slips after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session.
Australian Dollar may find support as the RBA’s expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Tuesday.
The US Dollar struggled as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz eased.
$AUD /USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day, driven by rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
The RBA is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%, potentially becoming the first G10 central bank to resume tightening. Market participants will closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.
A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.10% in March, with the possibility of another increase to 4.35% later this year. Westpac’s shift toward forecasting back-to-back rate hikes reinforces the view that the March meeting is “live,” which could lend support to Australian bond yields and the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, the $US
Dollar (USD) has struggled amid easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, its downside may be limited as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year fade due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Concerns that surging crude oil prices could drive inflation higher have dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing.
#AUDUSD
#US
#DollarDominance
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