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Bitcoin Bears Take Control Ahead of the $30.3 Billion Year-End Options Expiry
As Bitcoin’s year-end options expiry approaches, bullish sentiment is increasingly under pressure amid rising risks of a price reversal. A massive $30.3 billion in open interest is set to expire, with the outcome hinging on Bitcoin’s spot price at 3:00 PM on Friday, the key settlement moment that will determine whether bears can maintain control after nearly five weeks of consolidation around $89,000.
Currently, Deribit dominates the Bitcoin options market, accounting for roughly 80% of total open interest, followed by CME Group in Chicago with approximately 11%. This concentration makes Deribit’s positioning especially influential in shaping short-term price dynamics.
A critical detail stands out: the majority of the $21.7 billion in call options are likely to expire worthless. Bulls were caught off guard after Bitcoin lost the psychological $100,000 support level in November, a breakdown that dramatically reduced the probability of higher strike prices being reached before expiry.
On Deribit, less than 6% of call options are positioned at $92,000 or lower, meaning that most bullish bets require a significant upside move that has failed to materialize so far.
Call Option Clustering Reveals Bullish Overconfidence
Even after excluding roughly $2.5 billion in open interest at extreme strike prices of $150,000 and above, the data still shows a heavy concentration of call options between $100,000 and $125,000.
This skew is not purely directional optimism. Many traders intentionally select high strike prices as part of covered call strategies, aiming to harvest elevated volatility premiums rather than betting outright on a breakout. This explains why demand persists even at strikes as high as $200,000.
Nevertheless, the broader implication remains clear: bulls underestimated the time required for Bitcoin to reclaim the $94,000 level, leaving much of their positioning vulnerable as expiry approaches.
Bears Build Strength Below Key Resistance
On the other side of the market, bearish strategies appear increasingly well-positioned. Put options are heavily concentrated in the $75,000 to $86,000 range, reflecting traders’ expectations that downside pressure could persist if macro conditions deteriorate further.
If Bitcoin settles above $88,000 on Friday, more than 50% of the $7.7 billion in put options on Deribit will expire worthless. However, this does not automatically flip the market bullish.
As long as BTC fails to break above $94,000, bears retain a structural advantage, particularly given the asymmetry in payoff profiles near expiry.
Broader Market Risk Weighs on Sentiment
Beyond crypto-native factors, traditional financial markets are adding to investor caution. Risk appetite in the technology sector has weakened notably after Oracle’s (ORCL US) credit protection costs surged to record highs.
According to Bloomberg, Oracle issued nearly $26 billion in bonds this year, while its stock remains around 40% below its September peak. Rising credit risk in large-cap tech has reinforced a defensive stance across risk assets — including Bitcoin.
This backdrop helps explain why upside momentum has struggled to regain traction despite periodic bullish catalysts.
Bulls Increase Exposure Ahead of Expiry
Despite these headwinds, bullish positioning has not disappeared.
Investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of U.S. economic stimulus, following confirmation from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a $2,000 tax rebate for non-wealthy individuals is planned for early 2026.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, should prioritize interest rate cuts.
In response, Bitcoin traders have added call option exposure in the $90,000 to $120,000 range over the past week. This suggests that bullish conviction remains intact — even after five consecutive weeks of failure to reclaim $94,000.
$94,000: The Line That Decides the Next Trend
Based on current price action and Deribit positioning, four primary scenarios emerge for Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry:
$86,000 – $90,000: Net outcome strongly favors put options, with an estimated $2.4 billion advantage for bears.
$90,001 – $94,000: Put options still dominate, with a net edge of roughly $1.5 billion.
$94,001 – $96,000: Bearish advantage narrows significantly to around $650 million.
$96,001 – $98,000: Call and put options reach near-perfect balance.
A settlement below $90,000 would represent a severe psychological and structural blow to bulls. However, even above that level, the market remains skewed toward bearish outcomes unless Bitcoin can decisively reclaim $94,000.
What the Expiry Really Signals
This options expiry is not just about short-term price action. It reflects a broader shift in market psychology:
Leverage has been cleaned out
Volatility sellers are increasingly confident
Directional conviction remains fragile
Until Bitcoin breaks above $94,000 with volume and follow-through, put-driven strategies continue to define the market structure.
For now, bears may not need a crash — they only need time.
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