Azerkhan

Is AAVE Preparing for Distribution?
Smart Money Clues Inside the Current Range
Aave is currently trading inside a clearly defined range on the 1H timeframe, and recent price action is showing classic signs of liquidity manipulation followed by potential distribution.
The chart highlights three key phases traders should pay attention to:
1. Accumulation Phase
After the sharp sell-off from the highs near $98, price began moving sideways between:
Range High: ~$94.20
Range Low: ~$91.60
Mid Range: ~$93.00
This sideways movement suggests accumulation behavior where larger participants absorb liquidity while retail traders become uncertain about direction.
Several failed breakdowns near range lows indicate buyers were defending the area aggressively.
2. Liquidity Manipulation
The most important move on the chart is the sudden spike above the range high.
Price briefly pushed toward the $96 area, triggering:
breakout longs
short liquidations
FOMO entries
However, the move failed quickly and price returned back inside the range.
This type of candle often signals:
liquidity grab
stop hunt
engineered breakout
When price cannot hold above resistance after a strong breakout, it usually means smart money used the move to distribute positions into aggressive buyers.
3. Possible Distribution Scenario
After the rejection from highs, AAVE is now trading around the mid-range area.
This zone is critical because:
acceptance below mid-range increases bearish probability
momentum is weakening
buyers failed to maintain breakout structure
If sellers gain control, the next target becomes the range low near $91.50.
A confirmed breakdown below the range low could open continuation toward:
$90
$88 region
ascending trendline support below
The grey “distribution” box on the chart suggests a potential markdown phase if bearish momentum expands.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario
AAVE needs to:
reclaim range high
hold above $94.20
convert resistance into support
If this happens, upside continuation toward $96–98 becomes possible again.
Bearish Scenario
If price loses:
mid-range support
then range low
the probability of a larger downside move increases significantly.
Trading Psychology Behind This Move
Most retail traders buy breakouts.
Smart money often:
creates breakout excitement
attracts liquidity
exits positions into buyers
reverses price aggressively
This is why failed breakouts are one of the strongest warning signals in range-based markets.
Final Thoughts
At the moment, AAVE remains range-bound, but recent manipulation above highs followed by rejection suggests caution for late longs.
The next few candles around the mid-range area will likely decide whether:
this becomes a bullish continuation setup
or
the start of a deeper distribution phase.
Patience is key. Let price confirm direction before entering aggressively.
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