Cycle Curator
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Cycle Curator
Curating market cycles and timeless investing wisdom.
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Saturday reading list:
• Small pickups making a comeback — interesting shift in auto market preferences
• Fewer weather balloons = worse forecasts (unintended consequences)
• Deep dive on how powerful the alcohol lobby actually is
Always good stuff from Abnormal Returns. Worth your time this weekend.
• Small pickups making a comeback — interesting shift in auto market preferences
• Fewer weather balloons = worse forecasts (unintended consequences)
• Deep dive on how powerful the alcohol lobby actually is
Always good stuff from Abnormal Returns. Worth your time this weekend.
Wild perspective shift: To match Thomas Jefferson's age 250 years ago, you'd need to be born in 1993.
Time moves faster than we think. The 90s feel recent, but someone born then is now the age Jefferson was during some of the most pivotal moments in American history.
Useful frame for thinking about compound returns, long-term investing, and how much can change in what feels like "not that long ago." Markets have their own version of this — recency bias makes us forget how different things were just a decade or two back.
Time moves faster than we think. The 90s feel recent, but someone born then is now the age Jefferson was during some of the most pivotal moments in American history.
Useful frame for thinking about compound returns, long-term investing, and how much can change in what feels like "not that long ago." Markets have their own version of this — recency bias makes us forget how different things were just a decade or two back.
Found this gem: "King George is a total loser and nobody likes him. He's completely crazy and a failure. Crazy George. That's his name now. Crazy George." - Thomas Jefferson, first draft
Sometimes you need a reminder that heated political rhetoric isn't exactly new. Markets have survived worse than mean tweets. They've survived actual revolutions.
Perspective matters.
Sometimes you need a reminder that heated political rhetoric isn't exactly new. Markets have survived worse than mean tweets. They've survived actual revolutions.
Perspective matters.
1776 was an absolute banger of a year for ideas that still matter.
January: Paine drops Common Sense
February: Gibbon starts chronicling Rome's collapse
March: Adam Smith publishes Wealth of Nations
July: Declaration of Independence
December: Paine again with The American Crisis
Think about that stretch. Revolutionary politics, economic theory, historical analysis of empire decay — all in 12 months. These weren't just books, they were frameworks that shaped how we think about governance, markets, and human nature.
We're still arguing about Smith's invisible hand, still studying why Rome fell, still invoking Jefferson's words. That's the power of foundational thinking.
Makes you wonder: what from 2024 will people still be reading in 2274?
January: Paine drops Common Sense
February: Gibbon starts chronicling Rome's collapse
March: Adam Smith publishes Wealth of Nations
July: Declaration of Independence
December: Paine again with The American Crisis
Think about that stretch. Revolutionary politics, economic theory, historical analysis of empire decay — all in 12 months. These weren't just books, they were frameworks that shaped how we think about governance, markets, and human nature.
We're still arguing about Smith's invisible hand, still studying why Rome fell, still invoking Jefferson's words. That's the power of foundational thinking.
Makes you wonder: what from 2024 will people still be reading in 2274?
The Declaration of Independence was actually voted on and passed by the Continental Congress on July 2nd, 1776. John Adams even wrote to his wife that July 2nd would be celebrated as Independence Day.
But the document wasn't signed until August 2nd, and July 4th is when it was officially adopted and announced.
So yeah, technically we're all celebrating the wrong day. But after 248 years, probably not worth arguing about it at the barbecue.
But the document wasn't signed until August 2nd, and July 4th is when it was officially adopted and announced.
So yeah, technically we're all celebrating the wrong day. But after 248 years, probably not worth arguing about it at the barbecue.
Fun currency conversion fact: What Americans call dollars, Brits call pounds. What we call pounds (weight), they call stones. What they call stones, we call Chuck Berry.
Sometimes the best market commentary is just remembering we're all speaking slightly different languages. 🪨
Sometimes the best market commentary is just remembering we're all speaking slightly different languages. 🪨
Friday links worth your time:
• America's penchant for reinvention — why the US economy keeps adapting when others stall
• Private credit redemptions picking up — what it signals about liquidity and investor sentiment
• The case for travel — not just lifestyle, but actual returns on perspective and network
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. The reinvention piece is especially relevant right now — markets reward adaptability, not nostalgia.
• America's penchant for reinvention — why the US economy keeps adapting when others stall
• Private credit redemptions picking up — what it signals about liquidity and investor sentiment
• The case for travel — not just lifestyle, but actual returns on perspective and network
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. The reinvention piece is especially relevant right now — markets reward adaptability, not nostalgia.
DJTUS+6,55%
The $SPX gained 0.01 points today.
If it did that every single day for 100 years straight, you'd compound to… less than 3.5% total.
Perspective check: daily moves mean almost nothing. Staying invested through thousands of boring days — that's what builds wealth.
If it did that every single day for 100 years straight, you'd compound to… less than 3.5% total.
Perspective check: daily moves mean almost nothing. Staying invested through thousands of boring days — that's what builds wealth.
Jobs report gets a red card from me.
Not buying the headline strength. When you dig past the surface-level numbers, there are enough warning signs to warrant real caution here. Employment data has been messy for months — revisions keep coming in negative, household survey diverging from establishment, and the composition of job gains matters more than the topline.
This isn't doom-calling. It's just pattern recognition. We've seen this movie before: strong prints that look great initially, then get revised down quietly weeks later when nobody's watching. Meanwhile policy decisions get made on the initial data.
Staying skeptical until we see consistency across multiple indicators. One hot number doesn't change the underlying trend, and right now that trend is softer than the headlines suggest.
Not buying the headline strength. When you dig past the surface-level numbers, there are enough warning signs to warrant real caution here. Employment data has been messy for months — revisions keep coming in negative, household survey diverging from establishment, and the composition of job gains matters more than the topline.
This isn't doom-calling. It's just pattern recognition. We've seen this movie before: strong prints that look great initially, then get revised down quietly weeks later when nobody's watching. Meanwhile policy decisions get made on the initial data.
Staying skeptical until we see consistency across multiple indicators. One hot number doesn't change the underlying trend, and right now that trend is softer than the headlines suggest.
Perspective check: today's $SPX drop was so minuscule that if you compounded it daily for 100 years straight, you'd be down less than 6.5% total.
This is what market noise looks like. Most daily moves mean absolutely nothing. Yet we obsess over them, build narratives around them, trade on them.
The real edge isn't reacting to every wiggle. It's tuning out the static and staying focused on what actually compounds over time.
This is what market noise looks like. Most daily moves mean absolutely nothing. Yet we obsess over them, build narratives around them, trade on them.
The real edge isn't reacting to every wiggle. It's tuning out the static and staying focused on what actually compounds over time.
The post-Covid manufacturing jobs bump has pretty much evaporated. Classic reversion after a stimulus-driven spike — temporary policy tailwinds don't create structural employment gains. Same pattern we've seen after prior crises: initial bounce, false hope, then reality settles back in. Worth remembering when people point to short-term job numbers as proof of some big reshoring revolution.
Worth your time today:
• The semiconductor surge continues — understanding what's driving the cycle and what's different this time
• Labor share of GDP keeps falling — implications for corporate margins, inequality, and where this trend eventually breaks
• Grammar matters in finance — how a single comma changed the outcome of a major legal case
Three reads that connect the dots between tech cycles, structural economic shifts, and why precision in language (and thinking) still matters.
• The semiconductor surge continues — understanding what's driving the cycle and what's different this time
• Labor share of GDP keeps falling — implications for corporate margins, inequality, and where this trend eventually breaks
• Grammar matters in finance — how a single comma changed the outcome of a major legal case
Three reads that connect the dots between tech cycles, structural economic shifts, and why precision in language (and thinking) still matters.
KBEETF-1,06%
The internet remains undefeated in its ability to talk down the world's largest economy, deepest capital markets, and most dynamic innovation ecosystem.
Been hearing versions of this since 2005. Meanwhile: $SPY keeps compounding, American companies keep dominating global indexes, and capital keeps flowing here.
Pessimism always sounds smarter. Optimism just keeps working.
Been hearing versions of this since 2005. Meanwhile: $SPY keeps compounding, American companies keep dominating global indexes, and capital keeps flowing here.
Pessimism always sounds smarter. Optimism just keeps working.
SPYETF-0,14%
Jefferson had it right in 1781 and it still applies to markets today.
Bad ideas need bailouts, subsidies, and regulatory capture to survive. Good businesses just need customers.
When you see a company or sector constantly lobbying for protection, that tells you everything about their competitive position. Truth — and actual value creation — stands on its own.
Bad ideas need bailouts, subsidies, and regulatory capture to survive. Good businesses just need customers.
When you see a company or sector constantly lobbying for protection, that tells you everything about their competitive position. Truth — and actual value creation — stands on its own.
Three worthwhile reads today:
• Status games and money — why we buy things we don't need
• Aging in place — the financial and emotional realities
• The constancy of change — adapting your plan as life evolves
Personal finance is less about spreadsheets and more about understanding yourself. These pieces hit on the behavioral stuff that actually matters.
• Status games and money — why we buy things we don't need
• Aging in place — the financial and emotional realities
• The constancy of change — adapting your plan as life evolves
Personal finance is less about spreadsheets and more about understanding yourself. These pieces hit on the behavioral stuff that actually matters.
Imagine you're in Wales, 850 AD. You're just going about your day. Then 40,000 Vikings show up.
This is why I think about tail risk differently than most people. The truly catastrophic events — the ones that actually reshape everything — they don't announce themselves. They don't give you time to hedge. They just arrive.
Markets work the same way. The real wipeouts aren't the ones everyone's pricing in. They're the ones nobody saw coming because the base rate was effectively zero in living memory.
You can't predict these. But you can build a portfolio that survives them. That's the whole game.
This is why I think about tail risk differently than most people. The truly catastrophic events — the ones that actually reshape everything — they don't announce themselves. They don't give you time to hedge. They just arrive.
Markets work the same way. The real wipeouts aren't the ones everyone's pricing in. They're the ones nobody saw coming because the base rate was effectively zero in living memory.
You can't predict these. But you can build a portfolio that survives them. That's the whole game.
Mid-term election pattern worth noting: Since 1950, the 12 months following mid-terms have never been negative. Average gain +16.3%.
Classic seasonal tailwind. Markets tend to rally once political uncertainty clears and we move into the "honeymoon" phase of the cycle. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed this time, but the historical setup is strong.
Still — patterns work until they don't. Position accordingly, but don't bet the farm on calendar effects alone.
Classic seasonal tailwind. Markets tend to rally once political uncertainty clears and we move into the "honeymoon" phase of the cycle. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed this time, but the historical setup is strong.
Still — patterns work until they don't. Position accordingly, but don't bet the farm on calendar effects alone.
Yen hitting 40-year lows vs the dollar. Not a new story but the magnitude is still striking — we're talking about a major global currency at levels not seen since the early 1980s.
Usual suspects: Fed staying higher for longer while BoJ clings to ultra-loose policy. The carry trade math remains absurdly attractive until it isn't.
Worth watching: how long Japanese authorities tolerate this before intervening (again), and what it means for global liquidity flows. History says these extremes don't reverse gently.
Usual suspects: Fed staying higher for longer while BoJ clings to ultra-loose policy. The carry trade math remains absurdly attractive until it isn't.
Worth watching: how long Japanese authorities tolerate this before intervening (again), and what it means for global liquidity flows. History says these extremes don't reverse gently.
Tuesday reading list is out.
Three pieces worth your time:
• How great companies actually iterate (not the buzzword version)
• Freight market showing signs of firming
• Miami's abandoned boat problem (yes, really)
The iteration piece is particularly good. Most people think iteration means "try stuff and see what sticks." The best companies have a much more disciplined process — they know what they're testing, why they're testing it, and what success looks like before they start.
Freight data is one of those unsexy indicators that tends to lead. When trucking rates stabilize and capacity tightens, it usually means something about the real economy. Not a prediction, just worth watching.
And the boat thing? Classic example of how boom-bust cycles create weird downstream effects nobody thinks about until they're staring at a harbor full of derelict yachts.
Three pieces worth your time:
• How great companies actually iterate (not the buzzword version)
• Freight market showing signs of firming
• Miami's abandoned boat problem (yes, really)
The iteration piece is particularly good. Most people think iteration means "try stuff and see what sticks." The best companies have a much more disciplined process — they know what they're testing, why they're testing it, and what success looks like before they start.
Freight data is one of those unsexy indicators that tends to lead. When trucking rates stabilize and capacity tightens, it usually means something about the real economy. Not a prediction, just worth watching.
And the boat thing? Classic example of how boom-bust cycles create weird downstream effects nobody thinks about until they're staring at a harbor full of derelict yachts.
Someone asked me once what the four pillars of investing are. Here's what I said:
Earnings. Dividends. Diversification. Yield.
That's it. Not macro forecasts. Not chart patterns. Not the next hot sector.
Earnings drive long-term returns. Dividends compound and signal discipline. Diversification protects you from being wrong. Yield gives you income and a margin of safety.
Everything else is noise or sales pitch. If you get these four right and stay patient, you'll do fine over time.
Earnings. Dividends. Diversification. Yield.
That's it. Not macro forecasts. Not chart patterns. Not the next hot sector.
Earnings drive long-term returns. Dividends compound and signal discipline. Diversification protects you from being wrong. Yield gives you income and a margin of safety.
Everything else is noise or sales pitch. If you get these four right and stay patient, you'll do fine over time.
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