Mohammed Murtaza

#BTC90kBreakingPoint $BTC
That’s a nearly 30% drawdown, which is pretty steep and suggests a risk-off mood is setting in.
Reuters

Some analysts warn that the sell-off could continue, pointing to another key support around $75K if things worsen.
Reuters

Technical Weakness

Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day moving average (~$109,800), which is often a long-term trend line.
MarketWatch

That breach is a bearish signal: Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies) says the next support could be near $94,200.
MarketWatch

There are concerns about a “death cross” (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA), which many view as a sell signal.
Business Insider

Macro & Institutional Pullback

Uncertainty around U.S. interest rate cuts is hurting risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Reuters

Some institutional players are reducing exposure or selling: listed crypto firms, miners, and others.
Reuters
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Negative ETF flows and selling from large holders is also being reported.
BTCC

On-Chain & Structural Factors

On-chain data suggests some long-term holders are taking profits or activating dormant coins.
BTCC

But there is still strength in the network: Bitcoin’s hash rate remains high, indicating strong mining participation.
aiTrendview
+1

Institutional adoption (ETFs, custody) continues to be a structural tailwind.
Exness Insights

Seasonality & Macro Catalysts

Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin, but this year things are more ambiguous.
AInvest

Fed policy is a big factor: future rate cuts or liquidity injections could drive renewed buying.
AInvest
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Geopolitical risks (e.g. U.S.-China trade tensions) could add volatility.
AInvest

Medium-Term Outlook

If Bitcoin can reclaim ~$112–113K and break above resistance, a bullish move toward $118K+ is possible.
The Economic Times
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But if current support breaks (around $94–99K per some models), deeper correction is possible.
The Economic Times
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Some models (like from LiteFinance) suggest maintaining support above $103K–$110K is important for any bullish continuation.
LiteFinance

2. Risks & What to Watch

Macro Risk: Interest rate risks, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical events could hurt risk appetite.

On-Chain Risk: If long-term holders keep selling or dormant whales move, that could accelerate downward pressure.

Technical Risk: A confirmed death cross could trigger more technical selling.

Liquidity Risk: If institutional inflows dry up, volatility could spike.

Sentiment Risk: Given recent drops, sentiment could shift from greed to fear quickly.

3. Bull Case & Bear Case Scenarios

Bull Case

BTC stabilizes near $90–95K and finds strong buyer support there.

Macro tailwinds (rates, liquidity) return, bringing in institutional capital.

Bitcoin reclaims $112–113K, breaks resistance → potential move to $118–120K+.

On-chain metrics remain strong (hash rate, accumulation by long-term holders).

Bear Case

BTC breaks down below $90K → potential test of lower supports like $75K.

Institutional investors cut risk; ETF flows turn negative.

Technicals worsen: death cross, trend reversal.

Macro headwinds strengthen: no rate cuts, or worse, rate hikes; liquidity tightens.

4. My Analysis (My “Read”)

Right now, Bitcoin is very vulnerable. The big drop from $126K is not just a small pullback — it's a material correction, and some support levels have already broken.

But this isn’t necessarily a capitulation: network fundamentals (hash rate, on-chain metrics) still show strength, which means this could be a healthy re-balancing rather than a full-blown collapse.

The near-term direction depends a lot on macro signals (especially U.S. interest rates) and whether long-term holders keep selling or start accumulating again.

For traders: short-term trades might lean cautious (or contrarian), waiting for clear signals.

For long-term holders: this could be a good accumulation zone if you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but risk remains.$BTC $BTC