On Monday, everyone was talking about Trump bringing the 'titans' (Musk, Cook, Huang) to China to sign a tech peace deal. But the reality by Thursday was very different. ๐ง
The Context:
Wall Street was expecting Trump to get China to buy advanced chips. But the Chinese administration was cold: They prefer to burn their own cash on local research rather than rely on the USA.
Why does it hurt?
For miners and AI projects, this is bad in the short term:
1. Limited access: Without the sale of H200, the computing power for AI in China is stalling, impacting cross-border projects.
2. Continuous tension: The narrative of "technological decoupling" is still alive. This keeps uncertainty in high-beta assets.
What's happening in the markets?
ยท Bitcoin: Dropped from $81k to $79k during the most tense discussions.
ยท Black gold: Oil surged to over $108/barrel because Trump did NOT get Xi to promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
๐ Square Strategy:
Chinese tech is becoming self-sufficient. For us, this means greater global fragmentation. The next bull run won't come from a fake trade peace, but from regulatory clarity in the USA (CLARITY Act) or actual rate cuts.
My trade: Neutral on tech, long on safe assets (BTC/Dollar) until we know if Warsh is going to cut rates or not.