Just saw a buddy's position blow up, none other than Garrett Jin.
Checked the on-chain data, this guy initially had 4666 ETH, cost basis at $620, and he never sold. Later, it shot up to over $4000 and he still held on, all the way to now. Theoretical unrealized gains peaked at $70 million, and now he's down $128 million.
I've seen way too many stories like this in the last two years.
What really makes me want to give a heads-up is that ancient whale that's been dormant for 10 years — entry at $620, asleep for a decade, now worth $4.2 million. Funny, right? Back then, at $620, I thought he overpaid, and looking at it today, it’s practically a steal. But this is the overlooked risk in crypto: you think holding will get you the win, but the costs of capital, time, and emotions are the real hidden losses.
Currently, total holdings are at $39 billion, funding rates are neutral across the board, looks calm on the surface. But pay attention to a detail — the premium on Bitfinex is gone, and there's a bit of a premium on USDC, which usually indicates that market makers are hoarding stablecoins.
According to my trading habits, this kind of situation is most dangerous for mid-cap projects. When liquidity is good, they ride the waves up, but once sentiment turns cold, the first to get hit are those coins with daily trading volumes under $5 million. Don’t think that your small-cap is tightly bound to the ecosystem; when liquidity shrinks, fundamentals won’t matter.
Keep an eye on the funding rate changes. If funding rates turn negative for two consecutive days, then consider bottom fishing, but for now, don’t rush to make a move.
Checked the on-chain data, this guy initially had 4666 ETH, cost basis at $620, and he never sold. Later, it shot up to over $4000 and he still held on, all the way to now. Theoretical unrealized gains peaked at $70 million, and now he's down $128 million.
I've seen way too many stories like this in the last two years.
What really makes me want to give a heads-up is that ancient whale that's been dormant for 10 years — entry at $620, asleep for a decade, now worth $4.2 million. Funny, right? Back then, at $620, I thought he overpaid, and looking at it today, it’s practically a steal. But this is the overlooked risk in crypto: you think holding will get you the win, but the costs of capital, time, and emotions are the real hidden losses.
Currently, total holdings are at $39 billion, funding rates are neutral across the board, looks calm on the surface. But pay attention to a detail — the premium on Bitfinex is gone, and there's a bit of a premium on USDC, which usually indicates that market makers are hoarding stablecoins.
According to my trading habits, this kind of situation is most dangerous for mid-cap projects. When liquidity is good, they ride the waves up, but once sentiment turns cold, the first to get hit are those coins with daily trading volumes under $5 million. Don’t think that your small-cap is tightly bound to the ecosystem; when liquidity shrinks, fundamentals won’t matter.
Keep an eye on the funding rate changes. If funding rates turn negative for two consecutive days, then consider bottom fishing, but for now, don’t rush to make a move.