As Bitcoin is establishing a solid base around the 73,000 – 74,000 range, the market is shifting capital towards Layer-1s with clear tech narratives. Over the past week, Injective (INJ) has become the center of attention, recording a strong breakout from a long-term accumulation zone, pushing its price up by about 50% and hitting a short-term peak around the ~7 USD mark (the highest in the last 6 months).
$BTCVN4 will comprehensively analyze 3 layers of money flow: Spot, Derivatives, and Ecosystem to find answers for INJ's next trend.
1. Spot Flow: Whales Accumulating, Supply on Exchanges Running Low. On-chain data shows that the buyers (Bulls) are in complete control of the spot market, demonstrated through two key indicators:
Exchange Outflows:
The trend of withdrawing INJ from major exchanges (Binance, OKX) to cold storage/long-term wallets is increasing sharply. When capital flows out of 'hot wallets', selling pressure drops significantly, creating conditions for a sustainable bullish structure as the floating supply in the market is dwindling.
Demand from news catalysts: The daily trading volume of INJ last week spiked to between 170 million and 201 million.
This momentum comes from two macro news: Binance.US officially supports INJ Staking and Coinbase Global Derivatives expands legal access to derivatives trading for institutions. This capital flow is long-term, not just a quick speculative influx.
2. Derivatives Flow: Reset Leverage, Gear Up for the Next Move
INJ's futures market has seen a healthy uptrend and a necessary shakeout over the past 7 days:
Open Interest (OI) rises alongside price: As INJ pushes from the base up to $7, open contracts (OI) increase in parallel. This signal confirms that the upward momentum is driven by new capital entering positions, not a short-squeeze.
Funding Rate cools down: After hitting resistance at $7, INJ underwent a slight technical correction bringing the price back to around $6.3~6.5. This decline coincides with the Funding Rate being adjusted to a neutral level (0.01%). This means that excessive leverage (hot longs) has been completely shaken out, creating a 'clean' foundation for large capital to continue deploying.
3. Ecosystem Flow: Supply Reduction Mechanism 'Compressing' Supply
Within the Injective network, the flow operates under a highly efficient value retention mechanism:
Permanent Outflows (Token Burn): The Community Buyback & Burn mechanism (using 60% of transaction fees from dApps for auction and burn) continuously removes INJ from circulation permanently. The latest burn event alone eliminated over $240,000 worth of INJ, bringing the total number of tokens burned historically to over 6.87 million INJ.
Stable Staking Capital: Over 50% of the total circulating supply is currently locked in Validators for rewards. This capital acts as a dampener, neutralizing sudden selling pressure.
Technical Analysis of Money Flow (Chart Action)
Structurally on Binance's chart, last week's money flow helped INJ confirm a Rounded-bottom pattern on the daily timeframe, successfully breaking out from a long-term downtrend.
Action Plan: The current pullback of INJ is a Healthy Pullback to retest demand. As long as active buying maintains the EMA200 level (around 5.1), the next target when Smart Money activates price pushing will be to completely break the $7 zone to pave the way for higher levels. The next resistance is at $8, and a strong resistance at the weekly level is $10.
BTCVN4 will publish when the signal changes.
Wishing you all success
