I've seen this pattern too many times to stay quiet about it
1. Local top at $89k - sellers stepped in hard 2. Sharp impulse down to $60k 3. Dead cat bounce to $82k - rejected clean by the descending 200D MA 4. Lower high confirmed. Now rolling over
Every major BTC dump ran this exact sequence before the real move:
2021-2022: $69k top -> $46k lower high -> -77% from peak to $16k 2017-2018: $20k top -> $11.8k lower high -> -84% from peak to $3.2k
Both times the crowd called the lower high a recovery. Both times it wasn't
The 30D accumulation cohort has now moved underwater, with the $78.2K cost basis flipping from support into resistance. Any move back into this zone could face increased selling pressure from holders looking to exit at breakeven.
On the downside, the 1M–3M holder cost basis at $71.4K remains the strongest near-term support. This cohort is still holding profits, creating a strong incentive to defend the level.
As long as $71.4K holds, bulls still have a foundation to build from. A reclaim of $78.2K would be the first sign of strength returning.
All eyes remain on these levels as the next major move is likely to be decided here.
I'm still expecting a relief bounce to retest some of the recent breakdown levels.
Price has started to stabilize after the recent selloff, while volatility on the weekend remained relatively low.
But that should change later today or at the latest tomorrow as liquidity returns to the market.
If we get the bounce I'm expecting, the first level to watch will be the monthly open. A rejection there would likely lead to a relatively quick bearish continuation, where a sweep of the recent low at $72.5k becomes increasingly likely.
If price, on the other hand, manages to reclaim the monthly open, we should see a move into the key breakdown zone between $78k and $79k.
This area is not only our main liquidity target, but also lines up with multiple bearish confluences such as the Fibonacci Golden Pocket and the 200EMA.
This remains my primary scenario and the area where I believe the formation of a lower high is most likely.
Bitcoin rejected $84K for a reason. That was the final Bull Trap. Now history is repeating once again. Everything is unfolding exactly as I predicted: Rejection → Breakdown → Capitulation Now $BTC is following the same path:
$84K → $78K → $73K → $61K → $54K
Most traders are still waiting for new all-time highs.
But smart money is already preparing for the next leg down.
Quick reminder: I was one of the few publicly calling the Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the top in 2025.
If you ignored those calls, don't ignore this one.