Henry Insights

And it could decide whether the AI bubble still has fuel left or if it already peaked.
Nvidia reports earnings after the US market close today.
Wall Street is expecting:
• Revenue: $79.12 billion
• Expected growth: +79.56% YoY
That means Nvidia is expected to generate almost $80 billion in revenue in just one quarter.
And this is no longer just another tech earnings report.
Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $5.5 trillion.
That makes Nvidia worth more than the annual GDP of every country on Earth except the US and China.
That is how large the AI trade has become.
Over the last few quarters, Nvidia kept beating expectations again and again.
Its last report came in at:
• EPS: 1.62 vs 1.50 expected
• Revenue: $68.1 billion in a single quarter
Those earnings helped keep the entire AI rally alive.
Every strong Nvidia print pushed:
• Semiconductors higher
• AI stocks higher
• Nasdaq higher
But today’s report matters much more than the previous ones.
The market is now looking for any signs that AI demand is starting to slow down.
There are already growing concerns across parts of the semiconductor supply chain about:
• Slower server demand
• Inventory build-up
• Hyperscalers slowing future orders after massive spending over the last 2 years
At the same time, China is becoming a much bigger problem for Nvidia.
The US keeps tightening export restrictions on advanced AI chips.
China is also pushing state-backed data centers and companies to reduce dependence on Nvidia hardware and use domestic chips instead.
That creates long-term pressure on one of the world’s largest AI markets.
This is why today’s guidance matters more than the headline EPS number.
If Nvidia reports another massive beat and raises guidance, the AI rally probably continues.
But if guidance weakens or management signals slower demand ahead, the impact could spread across the entire market very quickly.
Because right now:
• AI stocks are carrying the indices
• Mega caps dominate market performance
• Valuations are already extremely stretched
• Investors are heavily positioned into the same trade
A weak Nvidia report would not just hurt one stock.
It could trigger selling across:
• Semiconductors
• AI stocks
• Nasdaq
• S&P 500
• Crypto
• Broader risk assets
And it would raise a much bigger question:
Has the biggest market bubble of this cycle already started losing momentum?
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2008. gadā SpaceX bija uz sabrukuma robežas.
Elons Masks vēlāk atklāja, ka uzņēmumam bija pietiekami daudz naudas tikai vienam pēdējam Falcon 1 startam. Trīs starti jau bija izgāzušies. Vēl viena neveiksme, visticamāk, būtu pilnībā beidzusi SpaceX.
Tajā pašā laikā Tesla cieta finansiālas grūtības, globālā ekonomika ienāca lielā krīzē, un investori visur zaudēja uzticību.
Viss bija atkarīgs no viena starta.
Tad Falcon 1 beidzot sasniedza orbītu savā ceturtajā mēģinājumā.
Šis vienīgais brīdis uz visiem laikiem mainīja kosmosa industrijas nākotni.

Mēnešiem ilgi tirgus turpināja kāpt, kamēr optimisms atgriezās visur. AI akcijas eksplodēja, indeksi palika tuvu augstumiem, un mazumtirdzniecības tirgotāji vēlreiz sāka ticēt, ka katrs kritums tiks ātri atjaunots.
Tomēr aizkadrā daži no lielākajiem investoriem pasaulē klusi sāka darīt tieši pretējo.
Jaunākās 2026. gada 1. ceturkšņa SEC iesniegšanas atklāja kaut ko neparastu. Miljardieri, kuriem parasti ir ļoti atšķirīgas stratēģijas, pēkšņi pārvietojās vienā virzienā vienlaikus: samazinot risku, samazinot ekspozīciju un turēdami vairāk skaidras naudas.